Game Analysis

Lean – Philadelphia (+2.5) over GREEN BAY

• The Packers were 13.5-point favorites versus the Panthers last week, and the loss was the largest upset loss for the franchise in the last 55 years.
• Green Bay drove inside Carolina’s 25-yard line on 6 of 7 drives but managed just 13 points. Usually, you would expect the offense to bounce back, but the Packers lost TE Tucker Kraft in that game.
• Green Bay’s offense is averaging 0.9 yppl fewer with Kraft off the field this season.
• Kraft has +109 yards after catch over expected, while the rest of the receivers have combined for only +111 YACOE.
• Kraft was averaging 4.16 yards per route run against man-coverage. No other Packers receiver is averaging more than 2 yards per route run versus man. The Eagles’ defense has a 36% cover 1 rate (2nd-highest).
• Philadelphia’s man-coverage will have a new look on Monday night. CB Cooper DeJean is allowing just 0.67 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd), but he will likely move outside after the Eagles traded for nickelback Michael Carter. I don’t think DeJean will be as good on the boundary, but he’s conceded only two receptions for more than 20 yards and has five pass breakups, and he will be noticeably better out there than Kelee Ringo and Adoree Jackson were.
• Philadelphia also traded for edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who has the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the last month.
• Green Bay’s defense has allowed a league-low 46 explosive plays. I expect the Eagles to matriculate the ball down the field, leaning on the ground attack that is averaging 0.04 EPA/rush (4th).
• This price implies Philadelphia and Green Bay are roughly even on a neutral field. Maybe that would be convincing before last week, but I do not think it is the case after the Kraft loss and Eagles’ trades for Phillips and Carter.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 44.4 points.