Philadelphia Eagles @

Green Bay Packers

Thu, Sep 26
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Green Bay Packers -3.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Lean – GREEN BAY (-4) over Philadelphia

This Thursday night matchup may be decided by the battle in the trenches. Green Bay’s defensive front has been dominant thus far with interior defenders Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry both already racking up double-digit pressures and new edge signings Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith both ranked in the top 10 in pass rushing efficiency. Eagles left tackle Jason Peters was injured last week but should be ready to go on Thursday and he and right tackle Lane Johnson have not conceded a sack this season. Philadelphia probably has the best interior offensive line in the league led by All-Pro center Jason Kelce and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks. Whichever side can win up front will likely dictate the Eagles ability to score points.

On the other side of the ball,┬áDavid Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are one of the league’s top tackles tandems and should shut down an Eagles edge rush that has 31 pressures this season. However, Billy Turner ranks last among guards in pass blocking efficiency and he is likely to be exploited by Fletcher Cox, who has 12 pressures (6th).

The receiving matchups are pointing in different directions. The Packers have allowed just 74 receiving yards to opposing tight ends through three games with the key addition of safety Adrian Amos, so Zach Ertz may struggle to get going. Alshon Jeffrey is likely to be back in the lineup for Philadelphia but he should be shut down by cornerback Jaire Alexander. Meanwhile, the Eagles will be without top cornerback Ronald Darby leaving the door open for Devante Adams to have a huge game.

Matt LaFleur is a rookie head coach and may not have his preparation timing perfected for his Thursday night debut (week 1 doesn’t count because they had a full week to prepare), but teams that are 3-0 or 4-0 to start the season are 33-10 ATS at home when not laying more than 4 points (perhaps not getting the respect they deserve), including 24-1 ATS hosting non-division opponents. Our model favors Green Bay by 7.0, with a predicted total of 45.4 points, so we see value with the Packers. This game was nearly designated as a Strong Opinion but there is concern over a first-year head coach preparing his team on a short week for the first time. Rookie head coaches are 8-16 ATS since 2013 on their first Thursday night game after a Sunday game when not playing another coach in the same situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Packers


  • Pass Plays 43.3 40.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 46.2%
  • Sack Rate 5.4% 1.5%
  • Int Rate 1.4% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.5% 21.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.4% 41.2%
  • NYPP 6.3 7.1


  • Rush Plays 27.3 19.3
  • RB YPR 3.4 2.8
  • Stuff Rate 17.2% 28.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.7% 37.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 25.9% 37.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.5 2.9


  • All Snaps 70.7 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 42.3% 45.3%
  • Succ Rate 45.3% 43.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.1% 43.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.3 26.7
  • Run Ratio 38.8% 32.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.8 28.6
  • Game Control -4.4 4.4
  • Points 25.3 26.0
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