Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Philadelphia

• The Eagles only had 78 net passing yards in the win over the Giants last week. Jalen Hurts is averaging only 5.3 yppp in four games without TE Dallas Goedert dating back to the start of last season.
• Cincinnati’s defense has the 4th-highest Cover 3 rate in the NFL, and the Bengals should shut down Hurts as Philadelphia’s yppp versus Cover 3 is only 84% of the yppp against other coverages (28th).
• Eagles backup LT Fred Johnson is surrendering a 23% pressure rate compared to starter Jordan Mailata’s 4.5% pressure rate. Bengals edge defender Trey Hendrickson ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he is going to wreck this game across from Johnson.
• Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley had a season-high 21% target share last week in Mailata’s first game out serving as an option for Hurts to negate the pass rush, but Barkley won’t be nearly as effective on Sunday against a Cincinnati defense allowing only -0.19 EPA/target to opposing running backs (4th).
• Joe Burrow averaged -0.04 EPA/play last week because starting left tackle Orlando Brown went down after 18 snaps. Brown ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency and backup LT Cody Ford surrendered a 20% pressure rate against the Browns. Brown will likely be back on the field this week to limit Eagles edge defender Josh Sweat, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Burrow has done a great job keeping the ball out of harm’s way with just a 1.1% turnover-worthy play rate (2nd).
• Our model favors the Bengals by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 49.9 points, and the matchups favor Cincy.

Cincinnati is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion up to -3).