Philadelphia Eagles @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Dec 4
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 357
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals +1, Total: 42

Game Analysis

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The Bengals 5-year playoff streak will likely come to an abrupt end this year as the Bengals are no doubt not as good as they once were.  However, the NFL is an ordinal league and the Bengals are simply a better football team than the Eagles.  Dalton has regressed from last year’s career high in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and NYPP.  Although based on his 6.7 NYPP he is still an above average passer and is piloting an offense that ranks 10th in the league.  Offensively their predictive metrics show that they have produced at a level 4 points lower than their go-forward run rate offensive output as they are -4 in fumble differential and have simply not been able to convert redzone opportunities.  The (5-6) Eagles are likely better than many would have predicted, as their early season win total was set at only  6.5 wins.  However this team has considerably cooled off as they have been -4 in the turnover differential since their 3-0, +6 turnover differential start.   Doug Pederson is running the same Kansas City style offense and Wentz is predictably posting Alex Smith-lite numbers, ranking 28th at 5.9 adjusted Net Yards Per Pass while leading an offense that ranks 25th overall in efficiency and 24th in explosiveness.   Defensively, Philadelphia plays an aggressive style which causes some metrics to look better than they are as they hold opponents to low success rates but give up numerous big plays, ranking 3rd worst against the chunk run and 7th worst against the big passes.  The advanced stats model sees value on the short home dog, Bengals (+1) is a *1-star Best Bet.  Lean to OVER (42).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Bengals
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.9 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.6% 40.2%
  • Sack Rate 6.2% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.6% 21.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.5% 49.6%
  • NYPP 5.9 6.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.8 25.5
  • RB YPR 4.2 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 21.4% 28.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.2% 41.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 44.4% 53.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 65.7 62.3
  • Early Down Succ 50.3% 43.3%
  • Succ Rate 46.2% 40.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.2% 52.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.1 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 27.5
  • Run Ratio 42.3% 40.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.7 27.5
  • Game Control 0.3 -0.3
 
  • Points 23.0 19.4
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