Game Analysis
The Bengals 5-year playoff streak will likely come to an abrupt end this year as the Bengals are no doubt not as good as they once were. However, the NFL is an ordinal league and the Bengals are simply a better football team than the Eagles. Dalton has regressed from last year’s career high in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and NYPP. Although based on his 6.7 NYPP he is still an above average passer and is piloting an offense that ranks 10th in the league. Offensively their predictive metrics show that they have produced at a level 4 points lower than their go-forward run rate offensive output as they are -4 in fumble differential and have simply not been able to convert redzone opportunities. The (5-6) Eagles are likely better than many would have predicted, as their early season win total was set at only 6.5 wins. However this team has considerably cooled off as they have been -4 in the turnover differential since their 3-0, +6 turnover differential start. Doug Pederson is running the same Kansas City style offense and Wentz is predictably posting Alex Smith-lite numbers, ranking 28th at 5.9 adjusted Net Yards Per Pass while leading an offense that ranks 25th overall in efficiency and 24th in explosiveness. Defensively, Philadelphia plays an aggressive style which causes some metrics to look better than they are as they hold opponents to low success rates but give up numerous big plays, ranking 3rd worst against the chunk run and 7th worst against the big passes. The advanced stats model sees value on the short home dog, Bengals (+1) is a *1-star Best Bet. Lean to OVER (42).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.9
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.6%
40.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
21.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.5%
49.6%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
25.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
21.4%
28.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.2%
41.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.4%
53.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
65.7
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
50.3%
43.3%
-
Succ Rate
46.2%
40.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.2%
52.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.5
-
Run Ratio
42.3%
40.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
27.5
-
Game Control
0.3
-0.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.9
37.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.1%
45.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.7%
5.6%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.2%
12.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.8%
37.5%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
28.3
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
20.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
42.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.9%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
65.5
-
Early Down Succ
49.3%
47.2%
-
Succ Rate
46.4%
44.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
41.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
28.5
-
Run Ratio
40.2%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
27.7
-
Game Control
-2.2
2.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
CLE |
29 – 10 W |
7.9 |
43.6% / 27.6% |
5.1% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
6.9 / 5.8 |
50.0% / 38.1% |
11.8% / 28.6% |
3.9 / 5.7 |
73 / 50 |
49.1% / 36.8% |
46.6% / 32.0% |
30.0% / 71.9% |
5.5 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.6% / 42.0% |
38.2 / 20.8 |
2 |
@CHI |
29 – 14 W |
5.1 |
48.6% / 53.1% |
5.7% / 9.4% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
5.1 / 6.9 |
28.9% / 61.1% |
26.3% / 27.8% |
2.7 / 3.6 |
73 / 50 |
46.8% / 61.5% |
38.4% / 56.0% |
38.5% / 45.1% |
3.9 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 4.0% |
52.1% / 36.0% |
38.1 / 26.0 |
3 |
PIT |
34 – 3 W |
15.2 |
54.8% / 33.3% |
0.0% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
9.7 / 4.6 |
40.0% / 30.0% |
33.3% / 30.0% |
4.2 / 2.9 |
61 / 58 |
49.0% / 33.3% |
47.5% / 32.8% |
57.7% / 50.2% |
7.0 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
49.2% / 17.2% |
27.1 / 22.5 |
5 |
@DET |
23 – 24 L |
-5.4 |
52.8% / 41.4% |
8.3% / 13.8% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 5.7 |
66.7% / 37.9% |
19.0% / 34.5% |
5.5 / 2.8 |
57 / 58 |
60.9% / 41.9% |
57.9% / 39.7% |
46.0% / 41.5% |
6.1 / 4.2 |
1.8% / 1.7% |
36.8% / 50.0% |
29.2 / 29.6 |
6 |
@WAS |
20 – 27 L |
-5.8 |
29.6% / 41.2% |
18.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.4 / 7.7 |
50.0% / 47.1% |
22.7% / 26.5% |
4.3 / 6.8 |
49 / 68 |
42.9% / 43.4% |
38.8% / 44.1% |
59.2% / 63.4% |
4.9 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.9% / 50.0% |
24.0 / 20.5 |
7 |
MIN |
20 – 10 W |
7.6 |
42.9% / 31.9% |
0.0% / 12.8% |
7.1% / 2.4% |
4.9 / 4.0 |
33.3% / 46.4% |
22.2% / 25.0% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
55 / 75 |
39.0% / 35.3% |
38.2% / 37.3% |
26.7% / 36.4% |
4.4 / 3.8 |
3.6% / 4.0% |
49.1% / 37.3% |
29.2 / 37.7 |
8 |
@DAL |
23 – 29 L |
1.5 |
42.6% / 38.1% |
6.4% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
4.1 / 6.5 |
62.5% / 50.0% |
33.3% / 32.4% |
4.0 / 5.5 |
71 / 76 |
51.8% / 45.0% |
49.3% / 43.4% |
16.2% / 62.8% |
4.1 / 6.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
33.8% / 44.7% |
30.7 / 26.7 |
9 |
@NYG |
23 – 28 L |
-9.1 |
38.8% / 43.2% |
4.1% / 2.7% |
4.3% / 5.6% |
7.1 / 6.7 |
44.0% / 35.7% |
28.0% / 21.4% |
3.8 / 2.0 |
74 / 65 |
47.3% / 48.9% |
40.5% / 40.0% |
58.0% / 48.7% |
6.0 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.8% / 43.1% |
35.5 / 28.9 |
10 |
ATL |
24 – 15 W |
2.7 |
47.4% / 25.7% |
5.3% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
5.8 / 7.3 |
53.7% / 46.2% |
9.8% / 38.5% |
5.1 / 3.7 |
79 / 48 |
59.3% / 36.1% |
50.6% / 31.3% |
39.4% / 59.7% |
5.5 / 6.3 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 27.1% |
33.8 / 31.3 |
11 |
@SEA |
15 – 26 L |
-9.7 |
46.8% / 45.5% |
4.3% / 3.0% |
4.4% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 8.7 |
61.5% / 29.4% |
23.1% / 20.6% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
73 / 67 |
57.4% / 43.5% |
52.1% / 37.3% |
30.5% / 57.2% |
4.2 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.6% / 50.7% |
23.4 / 32.4 |
12 |
GB |
13 – 27 L |
-6.7 |
42.5% / 61.5% |
10.0% / 0.0% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 8.0 |
61.1% / 38.7% |
5.6% / 32.3% |
4.5 / 2.5 |
58 / 70 |
50.0% / 51.0% |
48.3% / 51.4% |
29.1% / 39.0% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.0% / 44.3% |
17.4 / 26.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NYJ |
23 – 22 W |
-1.8 |
48.6% / 36.1% |
18.9% / 2.8% |
3.3% / 2.9% |
8.8 / 5.2 |
42.1% / 56.7% |
26.3% / 16.7% |
3.1 / 5.1 |
56 / 66 |
52.3% / 48.1% |
46.4% / 45.5% |
68.6% / 40.6% |
6.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 45.5% |
26.2 / 33.5 |
2 |
@PIT |
16 – 24 L |
-6.0 |
50.9% / 42.1% |
1.8% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
6.7 / 6.6 |
22.2% / 41.7% |
27.8% / 30.6% |
2.6 / 3.4 |
73 / 74 |
48.2% / 42.9% |
43.8% / 41.9% |
42.5% / 43.3% |
5.6 / 5.1 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
24.7% / 48.6% |
18.9 / 30.8 |
3 |
DEN |
17 – 29 L |
-0.6 |
45.7% / 54.1% |
11.4% / 5.4% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 8.2 |
56.7% / 29.2% |
16.7% / 33.3% |
4.8 / 2.2 |
65 / 61 |
57.1% / 44.7% |
50.8% / 44.3% |
46.5% / 38.8% |
5.1 / 5.8 |
1.5% / 1.6% |
46.2% / 39.3% |
30.4 / 26.1 |
4 |
MIA |
22 – 7 W |
7.4 |
46.9% / 26.7% |
3.1% / 16.7% |
0.0% / 4.0% |
8.9 / 5.3 |
24.4% / 30.8% |
31.7% / 7.7% |
2.0 / 4.8 |
73 / 43 |
42.0% / 32.3% |
34.2% / 27.9% |
42.9% / 59.5% |
5.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 2.3% |
56.2% / 30.2% |
30.8 / 22.7 |
5 |
@DAL |
14 – 28 L |
-17.7 |
51.1% / 56.0% |
8.9% / 4.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 8.9 |
52.6% / 41.2% |
5.3% / 14.7% |
5.1 / 5.4 |
64 / 59 |
52.9% / 55.8% |
51.6% / 47.5% |
23.5% / 48.3% |
5.4 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
29.7% / 57.6% |
22.0 / 26.2 |
6 |
@NE |
17 – 35 L |
-4.4 |
48.5% / 60.5% |
6.1% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.2 / 9.4 |
53.1% / 39.1% |
28.1% / 26.1% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
65 / 61 |
52.9% / 54.0% |
50.8% / 52.5% |
48.2% / 51.5% |
5.5 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.2% / 37.7% |
22.9 / 28.0 |
7 |
CLE |
31 – 17 W |
8.9 |
48.4% / 43.2% |
9.7% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
9.3 / 4.6 |
63.3% / 53.8% |
10.0% / 19.2% |
9.0 / 6.9 |
61 / 63 |
56.9% / 49.0% |
55.7% / 47.6% |
57.8% / 44.6% |
9.2 / 5.6 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
49.2% / 41.3% |
20.0 / 26.8 |
8 |
WAS |
27 – 27 T |
0.1 |
48.9% / 50.9% |
6.7% / 1.8% |
2.4% / 1.8% |
5.8 / 7.8 |
63.9% / 50.0% |
8.3% / 18.8% |
4.2 / 3.2 |
81 / 89 |
54.5% / 54.4% |
55.6% / 50.6% |
24.1% / 40.8% |
5.1 / 6.1 |
1.2% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 36.0% |
26.3 / 25.0 |
10 |
@NYG |
20 – 21 L |
0.8 |
28.1% / 44.4% |
9.4% / 2.2% |
3.4% / 4.5% |
5.8 / 5.1 |
43.5% / 34.5% |
26.1% / 13.8% |
3.4 / 4.3 |
55 / 74 |
39.5% / 42.6% |
34.5% / 40.5% |
48.1% / 26.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 39.2% |
33.3 / 26.3 |
11 |
BUF |
12 – 16 L |
-2.0 |
46.5% / 41.4% |
2.3% / 6.9% |
4.8% / 3.7% |
4.8 / 5.5 |
51.9% / 58.8% |
25.9% / 14.7% |
3.4 / 5.4 |
70 / 63 |
47.3% / 56.0% |
48.6% / 50.8% |
19.3% / 40.9% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 54.0% |
23.3 / 33.2 |
12 |
@BAL |
14 – 19 L |
-8.5 |
43.1% / 40.5% |
5.9% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
25.0% / 36.7% |
40.0% / 30.0% |
3.2 / 3.1 |
71 / 67 |
38.9% / 40.0% |
38.0% / 38.8% |
44.0% / 25.1% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
2.8% / 0.0% |
28.2% / 44.8% |
27.0 / 25.8 |