Game Analysis

Philadelphia (-9) vs CHICAGO

· Philadelphia’s defense had a season-high 51% pressure rate last week and they have now pressured the opposing quarterback on more than half his dropbacks in three of their last four games.

· The best antidote to a defense pinning their ears back is a mobile quarterback which the Bears definitively have. Justin Fields is averaging 103.8 rushing yards per game since coaching staff let him freestyle a little more following the mini-bye between week 6 and week 7.

· Fields is one of only eight players in the NFL this season with more than 900 rushing yards. However, Fields had only three designed rushes in his first game back from his shoulder injury prior to the bye. He had averaged 9 designed rushes per game in the previous five weeks.

· Fields needs to continue using his legs or Chicago’s offense will fall back towards the bottom of the league. Fields’ mobility aids the offensive line, who rank 16th in pass blocking efficiency since week 7 compared to 31st in the first 6 games this year.

· Eagles nickelback Avonte Maddox is allowing just 1.07 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th) and he will limit WR Chase Claypool.

· Philadelphia’s defense surrendered a league-high 48% rush success rate before adding interior defenders Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. The Eagles are allowing just a 37% rush success rate this past month.

· Philadelphia’s offense should be able to get whatever they want versus Chicago’s defense. The Bears have only a 4.30% sack rate (31st) and the Eagles rank 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Additionally, Philadelphia’s offensive line blocked for 156 rushing yards before contact last week, the most by any team this season.

· Jalen Hurts could get back his most reliable receiver TE Dallas Goedert, who led the league with a 74% success rate before a shoulder injury in week 10.

· Chicago’s defense will be without safety Eddie Jackson, who has 4 interceptions (4th). Jackson is worth 0.6 points by our metrics.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 10.4 points, with a predicted total of 46.7 points, but Chicago applies to a 42-9 ATS late season big home dog situation and road teams that have won consecutive games by 24 points or more are just 14-37-1 ATS over the years. I used Chicago in my spread pool.