Game Analysis
Opinion – TENNESSEE (-2) over Oakland
The 2016 Raiders were not nearly as good as their 12-4 record indicates. Oakland was fortunate to go 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and their +31 point differential projects to only 8.8 wins. Furthermore, the Raiders would’ve actually had a negative point differential without their 54 points of positive turnover luck.
Oakland’s defense ranked 21st in EPA/play last season and outperformed their expectation on 3rd-down by 30 points (based on their 1st-2nd down defense), which is another form of positive variance. I expect the Raiders to be a below-average defense again this season even with better personnel.
The public overestimates Oakland is heading into this season, which is clear based on the Raiders having the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl coming into this year (Bovada), which certainly wouldn’t be the case if their record was closer to .500 last year like it should’ve been.
The Titans, meanwhile, are a quality team with a young quarterback on the upswing and basically at the same point in his learning curve that Derek Carr was going into last season (i.e. 3rd year). The Raiders are a solid team – just likely not as good as the masses believe them to be – and Tennessee is more than capable of knocking off a good, but not great team on their home field.
Teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS in week 1 since 1999 and this game applies to a 35-13-2 ATS subset of that trend. Our model sees value on Tennessee and I’d play the Titans as a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 points or more. The Titans would be a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.8
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.1%
46.3%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.4%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.9%
46.3%
-
NYPP
6.4
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.5
28.2
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
21.8%
19.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.6%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.9%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.3
62.7
-
Early Down Succ
46.5%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
42.5%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
47.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
28.0
-
Run Ratio
41.8%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.3
25.8
-
Game Control
-0.4
0.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.1
42.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.6%
46.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
19.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.0%
41.3%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.6
23.1
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
21.3%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.8%
41.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.0%
35.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.0%
41.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
25.7
-
Run Ratio
48.1%
35.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
26.7
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NO |
35 – 34 W |
-4.0 |
48.6% / 58.5% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 10.2 |
57.7% / 54.5% |
23.1% / 18.2% |
6.4 / 4.0 |
63 / 63 |
55.8% / 60.8% |
52.4% / 57.1% |
56.4% / 58.4% |
7.7 / 8.0 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
41.3% / 34.9% |
28.6 / 19.7 |
2 |
ATL |
28 – 35 L |
-2.8 |
58.7% / 65.7% |
2.2% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.5 / 11.1 |
60.0% / 51.7% |
8.0% / 13.8% |
6.2 / 4.8 |
71 / 64 |
63.2% / 61.1% |
59.2% / 59.4% |
30.8% / 50.2% |
6.4 / 8.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.2% / 45.3% |
19.3 / 28.2 |
3 |
@TEN |
17 – 10 W |
6.7 |
44.4% / 32.4% |
2.8% / 2.9% |
2.9% / 6.1% |
6.8 / 6.2 |
26.9% / 58.6% |
19.2% / 13.8% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
62 / 63 |
38.3% / 52.0% |
37.1% / 44.4% |
49.3% / 35.6% |
6.0 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
41.9% / 46.0% |
26.3 / 19.6 |
4 |
@BAL |
28 – 27 W |
4.6 |
42.9% / 39.6% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 5.3 |
20.0% / 53.8% |
25.0% / 7.7% |
3.2 / 5.0 |
55 / 79 |
40.0% / 48.3% |
34.5% / 44.3% |
19.4% / 33.3% |
4.8 / 5.2 |
1.8% / 1.3% |
36.4% / 32.9% |
37.2 / 28.0 |
5 |
SD |
34 – 31 W |
-0.1 |
41.9% / 56.3% |
7.0% / 6.3% |
2.5% / 6.7% |
7.0 / 11.0 |
56.0% / 42.1% |
24.0% / 31.6% |
3.6 / 3.8 |
68 / 51 |
49.1% / 54.8% |
47.1% / 51.0% |
44.0% / 62.4% |
5.7 / 8.3 |
0.0% / 3.9% |
36.8% / 37.3% |
37.5 / 29.3 |
6 |
KC |
10 – 26 L |
-5.9 |
51.4% / 62.5% |
5.7% / 4.2% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 9.3 |
52.9% / 52.4% |
29.4% / 11.9% |
3.8 / 4.4 |
52 / 66 |
57.5% / 61.2% |
51.9% / 56.1% |
15.4% / 45.8% |
5.5 / 6.2 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
32.7% / 63.6% |
25.5 / 37.4 |
7 |
@JAC |
33 – 16 W |
9.5 |
35.1% / 31.8% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
5.4 / 5.4 |
50.0% / 29.4% |
22.2% / 17.6% |
4.1 / 6.2 |
73 / 61 |
44.0% / 32.6% |
42.5% / 31.1% |
42.8% / 59.4% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
49.3% / 27.9% |
40.2 / 21.7 |
8 |
@TB |
30 – 24 W |
-2.4 |
41.0% / 35.3% |
3.3% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 4.9 |
45.8% / 55.6% |
25.0% / 18.5% |
5.3 / 3.8 |
85 / 61 |
43.1% / 47.9% |
42.4% / 44.3% |
59.7% / 20.0% |
7.4 / 4.4 |
1.2% / 0.0% |
28.2% / 44.3% |
24.1 / 26.5 |
9 |
DEN |
30 – 20 W |
8.3 |
42.4% / 38.5% |
6.1% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
5.4 / 6.8 |
50.0% / 25.0% |
10.9% / 33.3% |
4.8 / 2.8 |
79 / 51 |
53.3% / 38.5% |
46.8% / 35.3% |
33.8% / 61.5% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
58.2% / 23.5% |
36.7 / 19.4 |
11 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
-0.3 |
51.6% / 53.7% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
3.2% / 2.6% |
9.5 / 5.6 |
22.7% / 48.5% |
22.7% / 21.2% |
1.5 / 3.8 |
53 / 74 |
44.4% / 51.8% |
39.6% / 51.4% |
54.4% / 30.2% |
6.2 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
41.5% / 44.6% |
30.2 / 29.3 |
12 |
CAR |
35 – 32 W |
3.9 |
56.1% / 33.3% |
4.9% / 6.7% |
2.6% / 3.6% |
7.6 / 7.6 |
30.8% / 40.0% |
15.4% / 24.0% |
1.5 / 5.2 |
80 / 55 |
50.0% / 37.8% |
43.8% / 36.4% |
36.8% / 62.3% |
4.6 / 6.5 |
1.3% / 1.8% |
48.8% / 45.5% |
30.9 / 26.8 |
13 |
BUF |
38 – 24 W |
-1.3 |
48.6% / 43.6% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
7.4 / 4.4 |
37.5% / 73.3% |
21.9% / 13.3% |
4.3 / 7.1 |
67 / 69 |
44.4% / 55.6% |
43.3% / 56.5% |
43.9% / 34.3% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
47.8% / 43.5% |
33.3 / 23.8 |
14 |
@KC |
13 – 21 L |
-6.4 |
21.4% / 40.7% |
2.4% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
2.6 / 9.6 |
51.6% / 36.7% |
12.9% / 13.3% |
4.4 / 2.3 |
73 / 57 |
36.5% / 43.6% |
34.2% / 38.6% |
13.9% / 51.5% |
3.3 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 3.5% |
42.5% / 52.6% |
30.5 / 26.5 |
15 |
@SD |
19 – 16 W |
-2.3 |
43.8% / 45.5% |
6.3% / 9.1% |
3.3% / 3.3% |
6.3 / 5.8 |
36.8% / 45.5% |
21.1% / 27.3% |
3.9 / 3.3 |
70 / 55 |
53.3% / 43.6% |
40.0% / 45.5% |
48.3% / 49.8% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
54.3% / 40.0% |
41.5 / 16.5 |
16 |
IND |
33 – 25 W |
9.6 |
55.9% / 65.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
7.3 / 9.9 |
37.5% / 52.0% |
20.0% / 20.0% |
5.3 / 4.2 |
74 / 54 |
46.3% / 65.1% |
45.9% / 59.3% |
43.7% / 46.4% |
6.2 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
54.1% / 46.3% |
32.5 / 24.3 |
17 |
@DEN |
6 – 24 L |
-13.4 |
38.2% / 44.4% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.1% / 3.7% |
4.8 / 7.6 |
25.0% / 24.4% |
31.3% / 31.1% |
3.6 / 3.2 |
50 / 72 |
39.5% / 35.4% |
34.0% / 31.9% |
23.5% / 53.8% |
4.4 / 4.9 |
4.0% / 0.0% |
32.0% / 62.5% |
31.0 / 27.6 |
18 |
@HOU |
14 – 27 L |
-9.6 |
27.1% / 40.0% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
2.9 / 6.7 |
28.6% / 26.1% |
38.1% / 17.4% |
3.0 / 2.7 |
69 / 71 |
31.4% / 34.6% |
27.5% / 31.0% |
31.0% / 59.0% |
2.9 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.4% / 64.8% |
27.1 / 34.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
MIN |
16 – 25 L |
0.0 |
58.1% / 42.4% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 7.2 |
50.0% / 31.0% |
31.8% / 27.6% |
2.9 / 2.3 |
65 / 62 |
54.9% / 37.0% |
55.4% / 37.1% |
24.4% / 24.8% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
33.8% / 46.8% |
26.4 / 35.1 |
2 |
@DET |
16 – 15 W |
-6.0 |
47.2% / 36.4% |
8.3% / 9.1% |
3.0% / 2.5% |
6.2 / 5.4 |
48.0% / 43.5% |
20.0% / 21.7% |
5.6 / 6.0 |
61 / 67 |
50.0% / 37.3% |
47.5% / 38.8% |
49.7% / 57.6% |
6.0 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 34.3% |
17.2 / 26.3 |
3 |
OAK |
10 – 17 L |
-6.7 |
32.4% / 44.4% |
2.9% / 2.8% |
6.1% / 2.9% |
6.2 / 6.8 |
58.6% / 26.9% |
13.8% / 19.2% |
6.2 / 4.8 |
63 / 62 |
52.0% / 38.3% |
44.4% / 37.1% |
35.6% / 49.3% |
6.2 / 6.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
46.0% / 41.9% |
19.6 / 26.3 |
4 |
@HOU |
20 – 27 L |
-6.1 |
36.7% / 50.0% |
3.3% / 2.6% |
3.4% / 5.4% |
6.5 / 6.4 |
56.3% / 54.2% |
9.4% / 25.0% |
3.9 / 4.8 |
62 / 62 |
47.8% / 55.1% |
46.8% / 51.6% |
50.0% / 45.1% |
5.2 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.6% / 38.7% |
30.7 / 28.0 |
5 |
@MIA |
30 – 17 W |
5.7 |
37.9% / 37.5% |
0.0% / 25.0% |
0.0% / 11.1% |
5.6 / 6.2 |
59.1% / 47.1% |
18.2% / 11.8% |
5.4 / 3.0 |
73 / 41 |
58.2% / 43.3% |
50.7% / 41.5% |
42.5% / 64.0% |
5.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
60.3% / 41.5% |
34.9 / 21.2 |
6 |
CLE |
28 – 26 W |
6.2 |
57.7% / 43.8% |
7.7% / 12.5% |
4.2% / 0.0% |
10.4 / 6.3 |
37.5% / 33.3% |
25.0% / 40.0% |
4.3 / 2.7 |
58 / 63 |
46.5% / 44.7% |
46.6% / 41.3% |
47.8% / 42.8% |
7.0 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.2% / 23.8% |
32.7 / 20.8 |
7 |
IND |
26 – 34 L |
-3.1 |
48.7% / 53.7% |
7.7% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 8.3 |
67.9% / 53.8% |
10.7% / 11.5% |
4.4 / 3.2 |
67 / 67 |
55.8% / 60.4% |
56.7% / 53.7% |
32.0% / 50.0% |
4.9 / 6.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 38.8% |
23.1 / 27.0 |
8 |
JAC |
36 – 22 W |
17.5 |
60.9% / 53.6% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
12.2 / 5.8 |
37.2% / 45.5% |
23.3% / 36.4% |
5.0 / 4.4 |
66 / 67 |
41.2% / 54.7% |
45.5% / 52.2% |
56.1% / 35.1% |
7.5 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
65.2% / 16.4% |
31.4 / 24.2 |
9 |
@SD |
35 – 43 L |
-7.5 |
50.0% / 55.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 7.9 |
47.4% / 38.1% |
26.3% / 16.7% |
4.2 / 5.0 |
61 / 76 |
49.0% / 50.8% |
49.2% / 46.1% |
47.1% / 33.2% |
6.4 / 6.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
31.1% / 55.3% |
24.0 / 30.2 |
10 |
GB |
47 – 25 W |
17.4 |
51.7% / 41.7% |
6.9% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
9.8 / 5.6 |
25.8% / 46.2% |
22.6% / 15.4% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
60 / 73 |
37.2% / 46.3% |
38.3% / 42.5% |
64.4% / 42.3% |
7.5 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
51.7% / 17.8% |
36.9 / 30.8 |
11 |
@IND |
17 – 24 L |
-10.8 |
46.5% / 43.3% |
11.6% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
5.9 / 8.4 |
59.3% / 37.5% |
18.5% / 12.5% |
3.6 / 2.5 |
70 / 62 |
56.6% / 45.2% |
51.4% / 40.3% |
35.0% / 58.0% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 51.6% |
22.4 / 27.3 |
12 |
@CHI |
27 – 21 W |
8.3 |
43.5% / 46.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
9.8 / 5.9 |
53.3% / 40.9% |
20.0% / 18.2% |
5.0 / 4.3 |
53 / 76 |
52.5% / 42.9% |
49.1% / 44.7% |
60.9% / 26.5% |
7.1 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
56.6% / 28.9% |
27.1 / 25.3 |
14 |
DEN |
13 – 10 W |
9.3 |
21.7% / 56.4% |
8.7% / 5.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 6.0 |
57.8% / 22.2% |
11.1% / 44.4% |
4.1 / 2.0 |
68 / 64 |
52.2% / 56.9% |
45.6% / 51.6% |
36.7% / 9.8% |
3.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
66.2% / 14.1% |
28.6 / 25.6 |
15 |
@KC |
19 – 17 W |
-8.3 |
42.4% / 37.9% |
3.0% / 3.4% |
3.1% / 3.6% |
7.3 / 5.5 |
64.5% / 53.6% |
19.4% / 32.1% |
4.8 / 5.6 |
64 / 57 |
56.5% / 51.2% |
53.1% / 45.6% |
39.5% / 38.5% |
6.1 / 5.6 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
48.4% / 49.1% |
21.8 / 36.6 |
16 |
@JAC |
17 – 38 L |
-10.5 |
41.3% / 58.1% |
8.7% / 9.3% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
4.5 / 7.7 |
38.1% / 48.3% |
38.1% / 24.1% |
2.8 / 2.9 |
67 / 72 |
44.9% / 62.5% |
40.3% / 54.2% |
17.0% / 45.0% |
3.9 / 5.8 |
9.0% / 1.4% |
31.3% / 40.3% |
30.5 / 22.3 |
17 |
HOU |
24 – 17 W |
9.0 |
36.7% / 41.2% |
13.3% / 7.8% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 4.8 |
36.7% / 34.8% |
33.3% / 26.1% |
3.5 / 2.0 |
60 / 74 |
30.2% / 43.1% |
36.7% / 39.2% |
49.8% / 39.3% |
4.0 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
50.0% / 31.1% |
41.3 / 20.2 |