Oakland Raiders @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Sep 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 463
Odds: Tennessee Titans -2, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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Opinion – TENNESSEE (-2) over Oakland

The 2016 Raiders were not nearly as good as their 12-4 record indicates. Oakland was fortunate to go 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and their +31 point differential projects to only 8.8 wins. Furthermore, the Raiders would’ve actually had a negative point differential without their 54 points of positive turnover luck.

Oakland’s defense ranked 21st in EPA/play last season and outperformed their expectation on 3rd-down by 30 points (based on their 1st-2nd down defense), which is another form of positive variance. I expect the Raiders to be a below-average defense again this season even with better personnel.

The public overestimates Oakland is heading into this season, which is clear based on the Raiders having the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl coming into this year (Bovada), which certainly wouldn’t be the case if their record was closer to .500 last year like it should’ve been.

The Titans, meanwhile, are a quality team with a young quarterback on the upswing and basically at the same point in his learning curve that Derek Carr was going into last season (i.e. 3rd year). The Raiders are a solid team – just likely not as good as the masses believe them to be – and Tennessee is more than capable of knocking off a good, but not great team on their home field.
Teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS in week 1 since 1999 and this game applies to a 35-13-2 ATS subset of that trend. Our model sees value on Tennessee and I’d play the Titans as a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 points or more. The Titans would be a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Titans
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.8 34.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.1% 46.3%
  • Sack Rate 3.3% 4.1%
  • Int Rate 1.6% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.4% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.9% 46.3%
  • NYPP 6.4 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.5 28.2
  • RB YPR 4.1 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 21.8% 19.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 40.6% 45.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.9% 43.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 67.3 62.7
  • Early Down Succ 46.5% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 42.5% 45.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.1% 47.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 28.0
  • Run Ratio 41.8% 44.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.3 25.8
  • Game Control -0.4 0.4
 
  • Points 25.3 24.2
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