Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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MIAMI (-3/-3.5) vs Oakland

The Raiders have been outscored 43-7 in the second half this season, which can be partially explained by poor coaching adjustments, partially by tired early-season lungs in the Denver altitude, and partially by variance, but it will be something to watch moving forward.

Derek Carr shook off a bad second-half performance in week 1 against the Rams and he completed 29 of his 32 pass attempts last week in Denver with one of the incompletions being a dropped pass. Carr is gaining 7.9 yards per pass play (5th) and certainly isn’t Oakland’s problem this season. Trading Khalil Mack may have been the best long-term decision for the Raiders, but through two games with Chicago he has matched Oakland’s entire defense in sacks and takeaways.

On the other side of the ball, this could be a potential breakout game for Miami’s Robert Quinn facing rookie left tackle Kolton Miller after Quinn accumulated 6 pressures from the right side through the first two weeks (6th-most). The Dolphins were favored by 4 in the advanced spread and then took care of business beating New York while the Raiders lost to Denver, yet this line has moved in Oakland’s favor. We agree with the move as our model makes this game Miami by 2.4 points and we see no value in the over/under with our true total at 42.8 points. I’d lean with Oakland if this line got to a solid +3.5 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Dolphins

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.0 35.0
Succ Pass Plays 60.8% 40.1%
Sack Rate 2.7% 2.9%
Int Rate 3.8% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 10.1% 24.8%
Big Pass Yards 45.7% 46.9%
NYPP 7.9 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 27.5
RB YPR 3.9 5.7
Stuff Rate 18.0% 10.8%
Succ Rush Plays 50.5% 56.3%
Big Rush Yards 23.5% 51.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 5.6

Game

All Snaps 62.0 62.5
Early Down Succ 60.1% 48.4%
Succ Rate 55.8% 47.2%
Big Yards Rate 40.3% 48.5%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.3 26.7
Run Ratio 40.5% 44.0%
Starting Field Pos 23.7 26.4
Game Control 2.4 -2.4

Points 16.0 26.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LA	13 – 33 L	-1.4	48.8% / 44.1%	2.4% / 2.9%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.3 / 6.6	56.5% / 55.6%	17.4% / 3.7%	4.1 / 5.2	64 / 61	52.8% / 54.2%	51.6% / 49.2%	39.2% / 39.3%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.9% / 44.3%	23.5 / 27.0
2	@DEN	19 – 20 L	6.1	72.7% / 36.1%	3.0% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.5 / 6.0	44.4% / 57.1%	18.5% / 17.9%	3.4 / 6.0	60 / 64	67.3% / 42.6%	60.0% / 45.3%	41.3% / 57.7%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 43.8%	23.9 / 25.7

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	27 – 17 W	3.5	55.2% / 36.8%	3.4% / 0.0%	7.1% / 7.9%	7.7 / 5.8	53.3% / 44.8%	26.7% / 17.2%	4.1 / 4.0	59 / 67	66.7% / 41.2%	54.2% / 40.3%	44.3% / 17.0%	5.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 43.3%	35.5 / 29.2
2	@NYJ	20 – 12 W	9.2	44.4% / 43.2%	14.8% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	4.5 / 7.3	52.9% / 26.3%	26.5% / 36.8%	4.1 / 2.2	61 / 63	55.8% / 39.6%	49.2% / 38.1%	36.2% / 50.3%	4.3 / 5.7	3.3% / 1.6%	55.7% / 30.2%	34.4 / 24.1

Oakland Raiders @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Sep 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis