Game Analysis
Lean – MIAMI (+3) over Oakland
Lean Over 44
Miami head coach Adam Gase was not wrong calling his team ‘the worst offense in football’. The Dolphins have gained just 4.1 yppl, worse than any team in the last 5 seasons, and just traded starting running back, Jay Ajayi. However, there’s reason to be optimistic about Jay Cutler’s return on Sunday night. Oakland’s pass defense ranks 31st in my numbers, which will be by far the best matchup for Miami this season as they have not faced any bottom-10 pass defenses thus far. One of Cutler’s favorite targets, DeVante Parker, is set to return on Sunday after missing nearly 4 full games and Parker’s 8.4 yards per target is easily the best on the team. I expect Cutler’s numbers to improve the rest of the season.
Oakland’s offense ranks just above average after filtering out EJ Manuel’s snaps and I expect the Raiders to have modest success against a mediocre Miami defense. The Dolphins are due for some 3rd down regression on both sides of the ball. The offense is converting less than 30%, worse than any team last season, and I expect them to convert more 3rd downs moving forward. Miami’s defense, meanwhile, is holding opponents to a 33% 3rd down conversion rate, which is better than any team last season. I expect the Dolphins to allow more conversions as the season progresses as well and converting more 3rd downs while also allowing more 3rd down conversions should lead to higher scoring games. My model likes Miami in this spot and I’ll also lean over the total at 44 ½ points or less. I think this line will get to +3.5, so you might want to wait if you are bold enough to bet on the Dolphins.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
32.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.7%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.8%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.3%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.2%
46.3%
-
NYPP
6.1
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.0
31.8
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
25.9%
20.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.6%
41.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.5%
37.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
58.0
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.7%
46.0%
-
Succ Rate
45.0%
44.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.8%
43.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
30.4
-
Run Ratio
36.5%
49.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.6
28.0
-
Game Control
-2.5
2.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.7
33.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.5%
46.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
3.5%
0.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.7%
14.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.6%
33.8%
-
NYPP
4.6
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.4
26.0
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
36.6%
33.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.6%
37.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.9%
61.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.0
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
62.1
59.1
-
Early Down Succ
44.0%
46.1%
-
Succ Rate
39.9%
42.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
29.6%
40.1%
-
Yards Per Play
4.0
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
30.7
-
Run Ratio
39.1%
43.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
27.9
-
Game Control
-6.2
6.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@TEN |
26 – 16 W |
4.4 |
55.9% / 50.0% |
5.9% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.1 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
16.7% / 28.6% |
3.7 / 4.5 |
64 / 63 |
57.1% / 46.9% |
53.1% / 47.6% |
26.7% / 33.1% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 33.3% |
29.3 / 22.4 |
2 |
NYJ |
45 – 20 W |
11.6 |
64.3% / 44.8% |
0.0% / 13.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 5.0 |
40.7% / 61.5% |
33.3% / 19.2% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
55 / 55 |
48.8% / 53.7% |
52.7% / 52.7% |
56.1% / 43.0% |
7.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
49.1% / 47.3% |
35.7 / 27.1 |
3 |
@WAS |
10 – 27 L |
-11.9 |
37.1% / 61.3% |
11.4% / 3.2% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
2.7 / 11.5 |
21.4% / 35.3% |
21.4% / 17.6% |
2.4 / 3.4 |
49 / 65 |
42.4% / 48.0% |
32.7% / 47.7% |
24.8% / 53.2% |
2.6 / 7.3 |
2.0% / 3.1% |
28.6% / 52.3% |
31.7 / 28.7 |
4 |
@DEN |
10 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
36.8% / 33.3% |
7.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.2 |
33.3% / 31.4% |
46.7% / 22.9% |
1.6 / 4.2 |
53 / 65 |
44.7% / 36.4% |
35.8% / 32.3% |
52.8% / 39.5% |
4.8 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.3% / 53.8% |
24.7 / 28.8 |
5 |
BAL |
17 – 30 L |
-11.8 |
34.5% / 42.3% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 8.5 |
56.0% / 44.2% |
24.0% / 9.3% |
4.3 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
43.9% / 46.9% |
44.4% / 43.5% |
40.0% / 46.5% |
4.5 / 5.3 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
46.3% / 62.3% |
24.9 / 34.0 |
6 |
LAC |
16 – 17 L |
3.2 |
51.6% / 45.9% |
3.2% / 2.7% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 7.1 |
50.0% / 21.9% |
31.8% / 18.8% |
5.0 / 2.6 |
53 / 69 |
52.5% / 34.0% |
50.9% / 34.8% |
35.4% / 33.6% |
5.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
41.5% / 46.4% |
31.7 / 24.7 |
7 |
KC |
31 – 30 W |
-3.0 |
44.2% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 8.9 |
38.1% / 47.8% |
19.0% / 26.1% |
4.2 / 4.1 |
73 / 60 |
40.7% / 46.7% |
42.5% / 48.3% |
45.7% / 52.9% |
6.9 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 38.3% |
20.6 / 22.9 |
8 |
@BUF |
14 – 34 L |
-5.5 |
49.0% / 55.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.1% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.1 |
42.9% / 45.0% |
14.3% / 17.5% |
3.9 / 4.2 |
63 / 67 |
51.0% / 55.3% |
47.6% / 49.3% |
28.9% / 48.6% |
5.8 / 5.0 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
22.2% / 59.7% |
22.4 / 35.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% / 62.5% |
5.6% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 8.1 |
36.4% / 28.6% |
30.3% / 50.0% |
3.4 / 3.1 |
69 / 54 |
43.4% / 58.7% |
40.6% / 53.7% |
38.9% / 28.6% |
4.9 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.8% / 25.9% |
26.4 / 24.9 |
3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% / 52.0% |
6.3% / 8.0% |
4.4% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 9.3 |
46.7% / 37.1% |
46.7% / 34.3% |
2.0 / 3.0 |
63 / 60 |
54.2% / 48.9% |
42.9% / 43.3% |
11.6% / 40.1% |
3.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
23.8% / 58.3% |
23.7 / 31.4 |
4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% / 48.8% |
12.5% / 2.4% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
4.0 / 6.4 |
60.0% / 46.4% |
40.0% / 14.3% |
3.9 / 3.1 |
47 / 69 |
52.6% / 46.3% |
44.7% / 47.8% |
31.7% / 46.1% |
4.0 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 40.6% |
27.0 / 28.8 |
5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% / 36.8% |
3.6% / 15.8% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
2.8 / 3.1 |
43.8% / 30.0% |
28.1% / 45.0% |
3.2 / 3.5 |
60 / 58 |
37.2% / 40.0% |
35.0% / 34.5% |
6.1% / 19.1% |
3.0 / 3.2 |
1.7% / 3.4% |
53.3% / 34.5% |
27.0 / 25.1 |
6 |
@ATL |
20 – 17 W |
-7.7 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
3.0% / 2.9% |
4.6 / 6.6 |
46.9% / 47.4% |
25.0% / 42.1% |
4.3 / 5.3 |
65 / 55 |
47.9% / 48.8% |
46.2% / 49.1% |
23.8% / 40.1% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.2% / 34.5% |
30.2 / 20.7 |
7 |
NYJ |
31 – 28 W |
-5.2 |
52.5% / 36.7% |
7.5% / 10.0% |
5.4% / 3.7% |
7.6 / 6.0 |
24.0% / 34.8% |
44.0% / 30.4% |
2.1 / 4.0 |
65 / 53 |
42.3% / 37.5% |
41.5% / 35.8% |
53.8% / 61.9% |
5.5 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
38.5% / 43.4% |
31.2 / 29.3 |
8 |
@BAL |
0 – 40 L |
-17.5 |
29.8% / 36.4% |
6.4% / 0.0% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 5.5 |
26.3% / 34.9% |
42.1% / 20.9% |
2.4 / 4.1 |
66 / 65 |
30.6% / 42.6% |
28.8% / 35.4% |
41.3% / 45.0% |
3.0 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 66.2% |
22.2 / 35.3 |