Oakland Raiders @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 5
5:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Miami Dolphins +3, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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Lean – MIAMI (+3) over Oakland

Lean Over 44

Miami head coach Adam Gase was not wrong calling his team ‘the worst offense in football’. The Dolphins have gained just 4.1 yppl, worse than any team in the last 5 seasons, and just traded starting running back, Jay Ajayi. However, there’s reason to be optimistic about Jay Cutler’s return on Sunday night. Oakland’s pass defense ranks 31st in my numbers, which will be by far the best matchup for Miami this season as they have not faced any bottom-10 pass defenses thus far. One of Cutler’s favorite targets, DeVante Parker, is set to return on Sunday after missing nearly 4 full games and Parker’s 8.4 yards per target is easily the best on the team. I expect Cutler’s numbers to improve the rest of the season.

Oakland’s offense ranks just above average after filtering out EJ Manuel’s snaps and I expect the Raiders to have modest success against a mediocre Miami defense. The Dolphins are due for some 3rd down regression on both sides of the ball. The offense is converting less than 30%, worse than any team last season, and I expect them to convert more 3rd downs moving forward. Miami’s defense, meanwhile, is holding opponents to a 33% 3rd down conversion rate, which is better than any team last season. I expect the Dolphins to allow more conversions as the season progresses as well and converting more 3rd downs while also allowing more 3rd down conversions should lead to higher scoring games. My model likes Miami in this spot and I’ll also lean over the total at 44 ½ points or less. I think this line will get to +3.5, so you might want to wait if you are bold enough to bet on the Dolphins.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Dolphins
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.0 32.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.7% 47.7%
  • Sack Rate 4.8% 4.8%
  • Int Rate 2.5% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 15.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.2% 46.3%
  • NYPP 6.1 7.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 21.0 31.8
  • RB YPR 3.8 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 25.9% 20.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.6% 41.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.5% 37.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 58.0 64.1
  • Early Down Succ 47.7% 46.0%
  • Succ Rate 45.0% 44.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.8% 43.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 30.4
  • Run Ratio 36.5% 49.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.6 28.0
  • Game Control -2.5 2.5
 
  • Points 21.1 23.8
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