Oakland Raiders @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Dec 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 113
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -4, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – KANSAS CITY (-4) over Oakland

The look-ahead line for this game was Kansas City -6.5 and I think the 2.5-point move may be an overreaction to the last week’s scoreboard, rather than the underlying numbers. The Raiders played well holding the Giants to 4.3 yards per play while averaging 6.1 yards per play themselves but the Chiefs were even more impressive outgaining the Jets by 4.6 yards per play on the road. Kansas City lost due to extreme Redzone variance settling for field goal attempts (one missed) in their two trips inside the 20 while New York was able to find the end zone in 4 of their 5 opportunities.

The Chiefs offense broke out of their slump by throwing vertically with new play-caller Matt Nagy, which is a strategy that they had great success with early in the season before falling back into their ultra-conservative mode during their losing stretch. Kansas City employed a 76% pass rate and gained 10.3 yards per play against the Jets. Alex Smith will look to build on last week’s performance against a weak Oakland secondary surrendering 7.0 yards per pass play (29th).

Marshawn Lynch was ejected in the first meeting between these two teams but he will have a favorable matchup in the rematch if he can stay on the field this time. Lynch secured his first 100-yard rushing game of the season last week and Kansas City’s rush defense ranks 25th in my metrics as they have sorely missed Eric Berry all season. The Chiefs will be without top cornerback Marcus Peters, which could set up Michael Crabtree for a monster day returning from suspension, so the Raiders’ offense should also find success. In fact, I’d be looking to go over if not for the tendency for divisional games to go under in the second half of the season. I do lean with Kansas City though, as the Chiefs apply to a 24-1 ATS subset of an 88-33-2 ATS division home revenge situation (they lost on the final play in Oakland earlier in the season).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Chiefs
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.9 35.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.7% 47.2%
  • Sack Rate 5.0% 5.9%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 0.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 14.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.8% 43.5%
  • NYPP 6.6 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.1 27.8
  • RB YPR 3.8 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 24.5% 22.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 42.9% 40.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.0% 38.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 61.0 62.8
  • Early Down Succ 48.2% 45.7%
  • Succ Rate 45.3% 44.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.6% 41.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 27.2
  • Run Ratio 39.5% 43.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.8 27.0
  • Game Control -1.6 1.6
 
  • Points 20.8 23.2
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