Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Oakland (+7/+6.5) over HOUSTON

The Raiders executed the rare trade-player-to-opponent-right-before-you-face-them this week by sending former first-round cornerback Gareon Conley to Houston. Conley underwhelmed in Oakland but was not given the opportunity to play man defense that he excelled at while playing at Ohio State. The Texans play man at the 4th-highest rate in the league and Conley should live up his draft position with his new team – and we’re upgrading the Texans defense by about a half-point.

Houston’s offense has seen a drastic improvement recently with Deshaun Watson getting more protection. Watson was pressured on 47% of his dropbacks in the first 4 weeks and averaged 5.8 yards per pass play. In the last 3 games, Watson is throwing for 8.9 yards per pass play because he was pressured on only 28% of dropbacks. The Raiders have a 36% pass rush win rate (30th) and I expect Watson to continue performing at a high level. WR Kenny Stills is gaining 2.84 yards per route run and he is set to return this week. Stills has an advantageous matchup on the inside across from Lamarcus Joyner, who is surrendering 1.53 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst), and All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins figures to thrive as well. The Texans have the 4th-rated ground game but Carlos Hyde will likely be limited versus Oakland’s 6th-ranked rush defense that is led by Johnathan Hankins, whose 10.8% run stop rate ranks 4th among interior defenders.

Raiders’ rookie running back Josh Jacobs has been excellent, averaging 0.28 avoided tackles per rush (2nd), and I expect Jacobs to be the focal point of this offense against Houston’s mediocre rush defense. Darren Waller is gaining 2.90 yards per route run (1st), but he has a tough matchup versus a Texans defense allowing only 6.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends (9th). Right tackle Kolton Miller is much improved this season, ranking 15 in pass block efficiency after finishing 2nd-worst in 2018. However, Miller will likely struggle this week to contain JJ Watt, who leads the NFL with 51 pressures. Derek Carr will be pleased by the return of left tackle Trent Brown, whose 95% pass block win rate is the best in the league after backup David Sharpe conceded 4 pressures last week.

Deshaun Watson will have another productive game because the Raiders are unlikely to get any pressure and Josh Jacobs should carry the load for Oakland offensively. Our model favors Houston 7.9 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points. We won’t be playing the under because of matchups that favor the over but I am going to lean with the Raiders based on my most reliable NFL situation, which now has a record of 206-107-8 ATS over 40 years and is still working well.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Texans

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.3 35.5
Succ Pass Plays 54.8% 51.3%
Sack Rate 3.5% 4.7%
Int Rate 1.9% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 22.6%
Big Pass Yards 28.8% 56.4%
NYPP 7.3 8.3

Rush

Rush Plays 28.2 24.3
RB YPR 5.0 3.3
Stuff Rate 16.5% 27.0%
Succ Rush Plays 49.0% 44.6%
Big Rush Yards 42.2% 25.9%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 3.3

Game

All Snaps 61.5 59.8
Early Down Succ 52.5% 49.7%
Succ Rate 51.9% 49.0%
Big Yards Rate 35.4% 52.9%
Yards Per Play 6.0 6.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.5 29.2
Run Ratio 45.5% 40.9%
Starting Field Pos 26.9 25.6
Game Control -1.6 1.6

Points 21.2 27.5

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.7 42.0
Succ Pass Plays 51.4% 46.4%
Sack Rate 8.2% 5.8%
Int Rate 2.4% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 19.9% 18.6%
Big Pass Yards 40.0% 35.3%
NYPP 7.2 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 27.6 20.7
RB YPR 4.5 4.0
Stuff Rate 21.3% 22.4%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 38.9%
Big Rush Yards 52.9% 44.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.9 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.3 62.7
Early Down Succ 53.2% 42.9%
Succ Rate 52.2% 43.6%
Big Yards Rate 45.8% 38.4%
Yards Per Play 6.2 5.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 27.9
Run Ratio 42.3% 32.8%
Starting Field Pos 27.0 27.4
Game Control -0.3 0.3

Points 26.4 23.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DEN	24 – 16 W	9.5	65.4% / 50.0%	0.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.0 / 7.3	46.4% / 52.2%	14.3% / 26.1%	3.5 / 4.1	54 / 57	51.3% / 52.3%	55.6% / 50.9%	40.3% / 58.1%	6.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 40.4%	29.0 / 21.8
2	KC	10 – 28 L	-8.3	46.3% / 56.5%	7.3% / 4.3%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.3 / 9.4	52.6% / 36.4%	26.3% / 36.4%	6.8 / 1.4	60 / 68	48.9% / 49.1%	48.3% / 50.0%	38.4% / 62.3%	5.1 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.5%	31.7% / 32.4%	25.3 / 26.2
3	@MIN	14 – 34 L	-15.9	52.6% / 47.6%	10.5% / 0.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.6 / 8.3	45.0% / 55.3%	15.0% / 7.9%	4.4 / 5.6	58 / 59	54.5% / 54.2%	50.0% / 52.5%	29.1% / 55.8%	5.2 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 64.4%	22.3 / 28.4
4	@IND	31 – 24 W	10.8	43.8% / 34.8%	3.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.9 / 5.8	46.9% / 47.8%	21.9% / 34.8%	5.9 / 3.5	64 / 69	46.0% / 36.7%	45.3% / 39.1%	38.5% / 45.7%	5.9 / 5.0	1.6% / 1.4%	50.0% / 33.3%	23.5 / 28.7
5	CHI	24 – 21 W	4.6	53.1% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	7.2 / 5.7	64.1% / 41.2%	5.1% / 35.3%	4.3 / 2.5	71 / 51	61.4% / 50.0%	59.2% / 47.1%	28.1% / 27.1%	5.6 / 4.6	2.8% / 0.0%	54.9% / 33.3%	32.0 / 31.7
7	@GB	24 – 42 L	-10.0	67.7% / 68.8%	0.0% / 3.1%	3.2% / 0.0%	10.6 / 13.2	38.7% / 34.8%	16.1% / 21.7%	5.0 / 2.6	62 / 55	53.1% / 55.8%	53.2% / 54.5%	38.0% / 68.4%	7.8 / 8.7	1.6% / 0.0%	50.0% / 41.8%	29.3 / 16.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	28 – 30 L	2.7	38.9% / 59.1%	16.7% / 2.3%	3.3% / 2.3%	6.5 / 8.2	60.9% / 52.4%	30.4% / 9.5%	7.8 / 7.0	59 / 65	44.4% / 57.7%	47.5% / 56.9%	68.4% / 45.5%	7.0 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.0% / 32.3%	17.9 / 26.4
2	JAC	13 – 12 W	3.3	36.4% / 40.5%	12.1% / 10.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.8	56.7% / 42.9%	16.7% / 14.3%	4.2 / 4.9	63 / 58	46.8% / 44.2%	46.0% / 41.4%	35.0% / 40.6%	4.2 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.7%	47.6% / 36.2%	26.8 / 26.0
3	@LAC	27 – 20 W	-2.4	58.3% / 41.2%	5.6% / 9.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 5.7	26.3% / 38.9%	26.3% / 16.7%	2.1 / 4.1	55 / 69	45.5% / 41.2%	47.3% / 40.6%	57.7% / 42.6%	6.8 / 5.3	1.8% / 1.4%	34.5% / 26.1%	24.2 / 27.7
4	CAR	10 – 16 L	-2.3	40.0% / 51.4%	15.0% / 8.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.2 / 5.5	68.2% / 35.7%	18.2% / 25.0%	6.2 / 3.4	62 / 65	54.0% / 43.1%	50.0% / 44.6%	36.0% / 28.3%	4.3 / 4.6	1.6% / 4.6%	35.5% / 43.1%	29.6 / 29.9
5	ATL	53 – 32 W	5.3	72.7% / 41.7%	0.0% / 4.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	12.9 / 6.6	55.9% / 30.0%	11.8% / 35.0%	4.9 / 2.9	67 / 68	61.1% / 32.0%	64.2% / 38.2%	58.1% / 27.6%	8.8 / 5.5	1.5% / 0.0%	50.7% / 29.4%	26.5 / 28.7
6	@KC	31 – 24 W	-2.6	59.5% / 44.4%	0.0% / 2.8%	4.8% / 2.9%	6.7 / 7.1	56.1% / 45.5%	12.2% / 18.2%	4.7 / 4.8	83 / 47	62.1% / 44.7%	57.8% / 44.7%	25.2% / 42.1%	5.7 / 6.6	1.2% / 2.1%	49.4% / 23.4%	32.4 / 27.2
7	@IND	23 – 30 L	-6.0	54.1% / 46.3%	8.1% / 2.4%	5.9% / 0.0%	7.9 / 7.8	50.0% / 26.9%	33.3% / 38.5%	4.2 / 2.4	61 / 67	58.7% / 37.5%	52.5% / 38.8%	40.4% / 42.0%	6.4 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.5%	39.3% / 38.8%	31.7 / 25.9

Oakland Raiders @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 27

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis