Oakland Raiders @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Houston Texans -6.5, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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Lean – Oakland (+7/+6.5) over HOUSTON

The Raiders executed the rare trade-player-to-opponent-right-before-you-face-them this week by sending former first-round cornerback Gareon Conley to Houston. Conley underwhelmed in Oakland but was not given the opportunity to play man defense that he excelled at while playing at Ohio State. The Texans play man at the 4th-highest rate in the league and Conley should live up his draft position with his new team – and we’re upgrading the Texans defense by about a half-point.

Houston’s offense has seen a drastic improvement recently with Deshaun Watson getting more protection. Watson was pressured on 47% of his dropbacks in the first 4 weeks and averaged 5.8 yards per pass play. In the last 3 games, Watson is throwing for 8.9 yards per pass play because he was pressured on only 28% of dropbacks. The Raiders have a 36% pass rush win rate (30th) and I expect Watson to continue performing at a high level. WR Kenny Stills is gaining 2.84 yards per route run and he is set to return this week. Stills has an advantageous matchup on the inside across from Lamarcus Joyner, who is surrendering 1.53 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst), and All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins figures to thrive as well. The Texans have the 4th-rated ground game but Carlos Hyde will likely be limited versus Oakland’s 6th-ranked rush defense that is led by Johnathan Hankins, whose 10.8% run stop rate ranks 4th among interior defenders.

Raiders’ rookie running back Josh Jacobs has been excellent, averaging 0.28 avoided tackles per rush (2nd), and I expect Jacobs to be the focal point of this offense against Houston’s mediocre rush defense. Darren Waller is gaining 2.90 yards per route run (1st), but he has a tough matchup versus a Texans defense allowing only 6.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends (9th). Right tackle Kolton Miller is much improved this season, ranking 15 in pass block efficiency after finishing 2nd-worst in 2018. However, Miller will likely struggle this week to contain JJ Watt, who leads the NFL with 51 pressures. Derek Carr will be pleased by the return of left tackle Trent Brown, whose 95% pass block win rate is the best in the league after backup David Sharpe conceded 4 pressures last week.

Deshaun Watson will have another productive game because the Raiders are unlikely to get any pressure and Josh Jacobs should carry the load for Oakland offensively. Our model favors Houston 7.9 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points. We won’t be playing the under because of matchups that favor the over but I am going to lean with the Raiders based on my most reliable NFL situation, which now has a record of 206-107-8 ATS over 40 years and is still working well.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Texans
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.3 35.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.8% 51.3%
  • Sack Rate 3.5% 4.7%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 22.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.8% 56.4%
  • NYPP 7.3 8.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.2 24.3
  • RB YPR 5.0 3.3
  • Stuff Rate 16.5% 27.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.0% 44.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.2% 25.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.0 3.3




Game

  • All Snaps 61.5 59.8
  • Early Down Succ 52.5% 49.7%
  • Succ Rate 51.9% 49.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.4% 52.9%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.5 29.2
  • Run Ratio 45.5% 40.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.9 25.6
  • Game Control -1.6 1.6
 
  • Points 21.2 27.5
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