Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The Under in this game was released to my subscribers on Monday when the total was 42 points. The Under is out of Best Bet range at less than 41 points but I’d consider it a Strong Opinion at Under 40.5 points.

Best Bet – **Under (42) – DENVER (-3.5/-3) vs Oakland

Derek Carr is gaining just 5.7 yards per pass play when a defensive coordinator has already seen Jon Gruden’s scheme and I expect Vic Fangio to be well-prepared on Sunday. The Raiders got a boost with Hunter Renfrow returning to the lineup as he recorded 107 yards last week, but it is unlikely the inside receiver will find any success in this matchup. Denver’s nickelbacks are surrendering only 0.70 yards per cover snap in the slot this season and just held Danny Amendola to 21 yards last week. Edge defender Von Miller ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc with starting right tackle Trent Brown out. Brown conceded just 11 pressures in 11 games this season and backup Brandon Parker ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency the last three weeks. Shelby Harris ranks 17th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and he could exploit Oakland on the inside if left guard Richie Incognito is forced to miss another game with an ankle injury. Josh Jacobs will likely be back in action this week further motivating the Raiders to run the ball.

The market is overrating Drew Lock because the rookie quarterback is 3-1 in his first 4 games. Lock has thrown for less than 6 yards per pass play in every start except against Houston where his wide receivers combined for 190 yards after the catch. The Broncos are averaging 105 yards after catch in the other 14 games. Raiders interior defender Maurice Hurst ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and will cause problems in the middle if starting right guard Ronald Leary misses his 4th game with a concussion.

Oakland has not been completely eliminated from the playoffs and I expect the Raiders defense to make it difficult for Lock with four games of film to study, as rookie quarterbacks tend to tail off in performance after their first few games. Our model favors the Broncos by 3.1 points, with a predicted total of just 36.5 points. The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 41.5 or higher and a 1-Star play at 41 (Strong Opinion Under 40.5). Denver does apply to a 90-35-1 ATS week 17 situation and I’d lean with the Broncos at -3 at -110 odds or better.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Broncos

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.6 35.2
Succ Pass Plays 52.0% 49.9%
Sack Rate 5.1% 5.6%
Int Rate 1.6% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 15.9% 21.5%
Big Pass Yards 35.9% 51.4%
NYPP 7.2 7.6

Rush

Rush Plays 27.7 25.3
RB YPR 4.3 3.6
Stuff Rate 21.1% 25.8%
Succ Rush Plays 49.8% 48.2%
Big Rush Yards 37.9% 38.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.8

Game

All Snaps 61.3 60.5
Early Down Succ 52.5% 51.3%
Succ Rate 50.8% 49.5%
Big Yards Rate 37.6% 50.5%
Yards Per Play 5.8 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.3 29.0
Run Ratio 44.8% 41.8%
Starting Field Pos 27.1 25.3
Game Control -1.5 1.5

Points 19.9 26.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DEN	24 – 16 W	9.5	65.4% / 50.0%	0.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.0 / 7.3	46.4% / 52.2%	14.3% / 26.1%	3.5 / 4.1	54 / 57	51.3% / 52.3%	55.6% / 50.9%	40.3% / 58.1%	6.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 40.4%	29.0 / 21.8
2	KC	10 – 28 L	-8.3	46.3% / 56.5%	7.3% / 4.3%	5.3% / 0.0%	4.3 / 9.4	52.6% / 36.4%	26.3% / 36.4%	6.8 / 1.4	60 / 68	48.9% / 49.1%	48.3% / 50.0%	38.4% / 62.3%	5.1 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.5%	31.7% / 32.4%	25.3 / 26.2
3	@MIN	14 – 34 L	-15.9	52.6% / 47.6%	10.5% / 0.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.6 / 8.3	45.0% / 55.3%	15.0% / 7.9%	4.4 / 5.6	58 / 59	54.5% / 54.2%	50.0% / 52.5%	29.1% / 55.8%	5.2 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 64.4%	22.3 / 28.4
4	@IND	31 – 24 W	10.8	43.8% / 34.8%	3.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.9 / 5.8	46.9% / 47.8%	21.9% / 34.8%	5.9 / 3.5	64 / 69	46.0% / 36.7%	45.3% / 39.1%	38.5% / 45.7%	5.9 / 5.0	1.6% / 1.4%	50.0% / 33.3%	23.5 / 28.7
5	CHI	24 – 21 W	4.6	53.1% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	7.2 / 5.7	64.1% / 41.2%	5.1% / 35.3%	4.3 / 2.5	71 / 51	61.4% / 50.0%	59.2% / 47.1%	28.1% / 27.1%	5.6 / 4.6	2.8% / 0.0%	54.9% / 33.3%	32.0 / 31.7
7	@GB	24 – 42 L	-10.0	67.7% / 68.8%	0.0% / 3.1%	3.2% / 0.0%	10.6 / 13.2	38.7% / 34.8%	16.1% / 21.7%	5.0 / 2.6	62 / 55	53.1% / 55.8%	53.2% / 54.5%	38.0% / 68.4%	7.8 / 8.7	1.6% / 0.0%	50.0% / 41.8%	29.3 / 16.6
8	@HOU	24 – 27 L	2.8	46.7% / 57.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.5 / 6.1	56.5% / 43.8%	21.7% / 18.8%	4.0 / 4.1	53 / 74	53.7% / 54.4%	50.9% / 51.4%	56.1% / 36.6%	7.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.4% / 43.2%	23.1 / 22.2
9	DET	31 – 24 W	1.9	53.1% / 51.2%	3.1% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	8.7 / 8.9	55.6% / 50.0%	8.3% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.5	68 / 63	54.7% / 52.0%	54.4% / 50.8%	54.0% / 62.4%	6.6 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.6%	52.9% / 31.7%	23.7 / 28.6
10	LAC	26 – 24 W	4.0	47.1% / 41.7%	8.8% / 13.9%	0.0% / 9.7%	5.9 / 4.7	52.4% / 63.3%	23.8% / 16.7%	3.7 / 4.9	55 / 66	52.4% / 55.6%	49.1% / 51.5%	16.2% / 58.1%	5.1 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.2% / 45.5%	33.0 / 25.2
11	CIN	17 – 10 W	1.9	50.0% / 22.2%	9.4% / 13.9%	3.4% / 3.2%	8.5 / 2.0	41.2% / 59.1%	23.5% / 9.1%	3.3 / 7.9	66 / 58	46.8% / 39.5%	45.5% / 36.2%	56.7% / 58.5%	5.8 / 4.2	1.5% / 1.7%	51.5% / 37.9%	30.7 / 26.4
12	@NYJ	3 – 34 L	-14.7	34.3% / 56.7%	2.9% / 3.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.0 / 10.4	31.8% / 43.3%	36.4% / 26.7%	3.1 / 2.9	57 / 60	35.0% / 53.2%	33.3% / 50.0%	12.5% / 60.3%	3.6 / 6.7	1.8% / 1.7%	38.6% / 50.0%	26.5 / 27.6
13	@KC	9 – 40 L	-18.8	56.3% / 43.3%	6.3% / 3.3%	6.7% / 0.0%	6.6 / 5.4	56.0% / 55.2%	32.0% / 34.5%	4.9 / 3.3	57 / 59	60.9% / 47.8%	56.1% / 49.2%	34.3% / 29.0%	5.8 / 4.4	1.8% / 0.0%	43.9% / 49.2%	21.4 / 36.1
14	TEN	21 – 42 L	-6.3	58.3% / 66.7%	5.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.7%	7.2 / 14.5	58.3% / 62.5%	25.0% / 18.8%	4.0 / 5.0	60 / 59	63.3% / 63.8%	58.3% / 64.4%	38.5% / 64.9%	5.9 / 9.4	1.7% / 0.0%	40.0% / 54.2%	32.7 / 16.5
15	JAC	16 – 20 L	8.2	45.0% / 41.9%	10.0% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.0	53.1% / 40.9%	18.8% / 27.3%	4.0 / 3.5	72 / 53	50.8% / 45.0%	48.6% / 41.5%	38.5% / 51.5%	5.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	44.4% / 41.5%	25.6 / 22.3
16	@LAC	24 – 17 W	7.4	60.6% / 60.0%	9.1% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.6	48.3% / 37.5%	27.6% / 37.5%	3.4 / 1.2	62 / 56	55.3% / 60.5%	54.8% / 53.6%	44.8% / 18.7%	5.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	46.8% / 28.6%	28.2 / 20.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@OAK	16 – 24 L	-9.5	50.0% / 65.4%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 10.0	52.2% / 46.4%	26.1% / 14.3%	4.1 / 3.5	57 / 54	52.3% / 51.3%	50.9% / 55.6%	58.1% / 40.3%	6.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	40.4% / 51.9%	21.8 / 29.0
2	CHI	14 – 16 L	-2.6	50.0% / 40.7%	3.8% / 0.0%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.4	50.0% / 48.3%	25.0% / 20.7%	3.8 / 5.3	76 / 56	55.2% / 47.7%	50.0% / 44.6%	19.1% / 35.5%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	31.6% / 51.8%	24.6 / 20.5
3	@GB	16 – 27 L	-7.3	45.7% / 37.9%	17.1% / 0.0%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.6 / 8.1	60.5% / 52.2%	13.2% / 17.4%	3.9 / 3.3	73 / 52	52.7% / 50.0%	53.4% / 44.2%	40.0% / 45.2%	4.2 / 6.0	2.7% / 0.0%	52.1% / 44.2%	26.0 / 36.3
4	JAC	24 – 26 L	5.0	52.6% / 36.8%	0.0% / 13.2%	2.6% / 0.0%	8.0 / 4.9	43.8% / 50.0%	12.5% / 10.5%	4.3 / 7.1	54 / 76	54.8% / 45.9%	50.0% / 43.4%	52.3% / 52.1%	6.9 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	29.6% / 50.0%	27.0 / 24.0
5	@LAC	20 – 13 W	12.5	34.8% / 41.7%	13.0% / 0.0%	5.0% / 4.2%	6.9 / 4.4	50.0% / 31.3%	15.6% / 43.8%	6.0 / 2.2	55 / 64	48.8% / 42.9%	43.6% / 39.1%	60.6% / 8.1%	6.4 / 3.8	1.8% / 1.6%	58.2% / 25.0%	28.9 / 31.3
6	TEN	16 – 0 W	7.4	41.4% / 29.3%	3.4% / 17.1%	3.6% / 8.8%	5.8 / 4.0	30.0% / 33.3%	16.7% / 33.3%	3.4 / 1.9	59 / 62	44.2% / 37.8%	35.6% / 30.6%	26.3% / 12.3%	4.6 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 33.9%	23.4 / 30.6
7	KC	6 – 30 L	-11.6	25.6% / 51.6%	20.9% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.1 / 6.2	42.9% / 33.3%	14.3% / 25.9%	3.4 / 3.0	64 / 58	37.5% / 46.3%	31.3% / 43.1%	37.6% / 43.9%	3.2 / 4.7	1.6% / 0.0%	32.8% / 46.6%	23.4 / 36.8
8	@IND	13 – 15 L	2.8	28.6% / 44.8%	8.6% / 13.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.6	50.0% / 58.1%	21.4% / 29.0%	4.0 / 4.1	63 / 60	43.1% / 57.4%	38.1% / 51.7%	39.4% / 32.7%	4.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.7%	44.4% / 51.7%	28.9 / 21.9
9	CLE	24 – 19 W	6.2	39.1% / 45.5%	13.0% / 4.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.6 / 5.9	45.0% / 37.9%	15.0% / 20.7%	6.4 / 3.1	43 / 73	46.9% / 44.6%	41.9% / 42.5%	71.9% / 38.2%	7.0 / 4.8	2.3% / 0.0%	46.5% / 39.7%	23.4 / 34.2
11	@MIN	23 – 27 L	9.9	31.0% / 57.5%	4.8% / 12.5%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.4 / 7.1	60.6% / 38.9%	18.2% / 38.9%	3.8 / 2.1	75 / 58	45.3% / 52.3%	44.0% / 51.7%	56.1% / 53.3%	5.3 / 5.5	0.0% / 3.4%	44.0% / 31.0%	34.8 / 28.1
12	@BUF	3 – 20 L	-7.9	17.2% / 42.3%	13.8% / 3.8%	4.0% / 4.0%	1.7 / 6.9	58.8% / 44.7%	11.8% / 21.3%	5.0 / 5.2	46 / 73	37.1% / 43.6%	32.6% / 43.8%	41.8% / 52.8%	2.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 64.4%	23.3 / 32.4
13	LAC	23 – 20 W	6.4	39.3% / 43.8%	0.0% / 9.4%	3.6% / 3.4%	4.8 / 7.6	44.0% / 51.7%	32.0% / 24.1%	3.4 / 4.0	53 / 61	39.5% / 51.1%	41.5% / 47.5%	39.4% / 54.6%	4.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.6%	47.2% / 47.5%	34.8 / 29.1
14	@HOU	38 – 24 W	19.8	60.7% / 41.5%	3.6% / 5.7%	3.7% / 4.0%	10.8 / 5.3	33.3% / 81.8%	14.8% / 4.5%	3.3 / 6.1	55 / 75	45.7% / 56.1%	47.3% / 53.3%	61.1% / 33.3%	7.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.3%	49.1% / 29.3%	31.9 / 28.9
15	@KC	3 – 23 L	-13.0	31.0% / 56.8%	4.8% / 8.1%	2.5% / 2.9%	4.7 / 8.8	40.0% / 48.0%	33.3% / 12.0%	3.5 / 3.7	57 / 62	32.5% / 54.0%	33.3% / 53.2%	50.2% / 37.0%	4.4 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	26.3% / 40.3%	25.3 / 24.3
16	DET	27 – 17 W	-0.5	52.9% / 28.6%	0.0% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 3.4	48.5% / 52.4%	9.1% / 19.0%	4.5 / 4.6	67 / 49	53.8% / 40.5%	50.7% / 38.8%	27.3% / 27.7%	5.2 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 42.9%	32.2 / 22.8

Oakland Raiders @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Dec 29

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis