Game Analysis
CINCINNATI (-3) vs Oakland
Derek Carr has now gone 8-straight games without throwing an interception after tossing 7 picks in the opening month of the season. However,, the feat isn’t quite as impressive when considering Carr has a league-high 53 check-down passes and a league-low average depth of target. Oakland’s only downfield threat this season is tight end Jared Cook, who is one of just 10 players in the NFL adding 0.70 points per non-turnover target according to our metrics. Carr should have time in the pocket to target Cook down the field with Geno Atkins (3rd in pressures among interior defensive linemen) likely limited by Rodney Hudson, who boast the league’s best pass blocking efficiency among centers, and Pro Bowl guard Kelechi Osemele – if he is able to suit up. The Bengals allow 8.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends (26th) and I expect Cook to be the focal point of the offense.
Cincinnati’s offense is without their 3 most-valuable players in Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. Jeff Driskel won’t have to worry about pressure off the edge as much against this Raiders defense after seeing Von Miller and Bradley Chubb in his first start and Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa last week. However, I expect new top target John Ross to be blanketed on the outside by Gareon Conley, who was benched in week 5 but is surrendering the 5th-fewest yards per cover snap of any among qualifying cornerbacks since rejoining the starters in week 8.
Our model favors the Bengals by only 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, but the Raiders apply to a 30-80-3 ATS road letdown situation and a 59-127-7 ATS situation that have produced a 3-19 ATS mark when both apply to the same team. The first one is a letdown off a win as a big underdog and the second angle is against a bad team on the road after a close win (3 points or less). Oakland beat Pittsburgh 24-21 as a double-digit dog in a 2-Star Best Bet winner for us but they may enter this week a bit too satisfied to play their best. But, our model says there is some value in their favor. I’ll pass although I’d use Cincy if you need a pick for your pool.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.5
29.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.0%
50.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.1%
2.9%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.1%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.7%
50.0%
-
NYPP
6.6
8.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.7
31.2
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
20.8%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.1%
45.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.2%
47.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
61.1
-
Early Down Succ
53.1%
50.6%
-
Succ Rate
50.0%
48.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.2%
49.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.6
29.2
-
Run Ratio
39.6%
50.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
29.7
-
Game Control
-4.3
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.2
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.5%
55.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.3%
39.2%
-
NYPP
6.4
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.4
31.8
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
17.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.2%
50.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.8%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
58.5
68.1
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
53.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.4%
53.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.2%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
29.3
-
Run Ratio
36.7%
47.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
29.0
-
Game Control
-4.8
4.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LA |
13 – 33 L |
-1.4 |
48.8% / 44.1% |
2.4% / 2.9% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 6.6 |
56.5% / 55.6% |
17.4% / 3.7% |
4.1 / 5.2 |
64 / 61 |
52.8% / 54.2% |
51.6% / 49.2% |
39.2% / 39.3% |
6.2 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.9% / 44.3% |
23.5 / 27.0 |
2 |
@DEN |
19 – 20 L |
6.1 |
72.7% / 36.1% |
3.0% / 2.8% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
8.5 / 6.0 |
44.4% / 57.1% |
18.5% / 17.9% |
3.4 / 6.0 |
60 / 64 |
67.3% / 42.6% |
60.0% / 45.3% |
41.3% / 57.7% |
6.2 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.0% / 43.8% |
23.9 / 25.7 |
3 |
@MIA |
20 – 28 L |
2.8 |
57.1% / 48.0% |
7.1% / 4.0% |
5.1% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 13.3 |
55.9% / 20.0% |
14.7% / 33.3% |
3.3 / 2.8 |
76 / 40 |
62.1% / 43.3% |
56.6% / 37.5% |
32.6% / 62.8% |
5.7 / 9.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.7% / 37.5% |
19.7 / 30.6 |
4 |
CLE |
45 – 42 W |
-2.1 |
53.3% / 37.2% |
5.0% / 4.7% |
3.5% / 4.9% |
7.1 / 6.5 |
33.3% / 43.8% |
36.7% / 21.9% |
4.7 / 6.5 |
90 / 75 |
52.1% / 42.1% |
46.7% / 40.0% |
44.2% / 57.8% |
6.3 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 2.7% |
33.3% / 42.7% |
34.9 / 26.1 |
5 |
@LAC |
10 – 26 L |
-9.9 |
68.0% / 78.3% |
12.0% / 4.3% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
9.9 / 14.5 |
61.5% / 27.3% |
23.1% / 30.3% |
3.2 / 2.5 |
38 / 56 |
55.6% / 45.5% |
65.8% / 48.2% |
59.5% / 43.4% |
7.6 / 7.4 |
2.6% / 0.0% |
34.2% / 58.9% |
21.2 / 35.3 |
6 |
SEA |
3 – 27 L |
-15.9 |
37.8% / 50.0% |
16.2% / 4.2% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
2.9 / 8.9 |
52.6% / 46.2% |
15.8% / 15.4% |
4.2 / 4.0 |
56 / 63 |
46.5% / 45.7% |
42.9% / 47.6% |
31.9% / 46.9% |
3.3 / 5.9 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 61.9% |
20.5 / 42.2 |
8 |
IND |
28 – 42 L |
-1.5 |
57.1% / 61.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.7 / 7.7 |
55.0% / 66.7% |
15.0% / 11.9% |
5.2 / 5.3 |
48 / 73 |
61.1% / 66.7% |
56.3% / 64.4% |
47.4% / 36.3% |
7.3 / 6.3 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
41.7% / 57.5% |
26.1 / 35.6 |
9 |
@SF |
3 – 34 L |
-16.4 |
31.3% / 59.1% |
25.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 11.9 |
37.5% / 28.6% |
20.8% / 31.4% |
4.3 / 4.2 |
56 / 57 |
39.0% / 45.0% |
33.9% / 40.4% |
44.4% / 74.0% |
4.3 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 61.4% |
23.6 / 28.9 |
10 |
LAC |
6 – 20 L |
-5.9 |
39.0% / 48.1% |
9.8% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.0 / 8.2 |
43.5% / 57.7% |
21.7% / 19.2% |
5.0 / 4.3 |
64 / 53 |
45.5% / 59.5% |
40.6% / 52.8% |
45.3% / 47.5% |
5.0 / 6.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
35.9% / 49.1% |
23.1 / 21.6 |
11 |
@ARI |
23 – 21 W |
1.4 |
48.5% / 33.3% |
12.1% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
5.2 / 6.1 |
60.6% / 41.9% |
15.2% / 32.3% |
4.6 / 5.0 |
66 / 52 |
60.8% / 42.5% |
54.5% / 38.5% |
47.4% / 43.3% |
4.9 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 59.6% |
29.9 / 29.6 |
12 |
@BAL |
17 – 34 L |
-3.9 |
29.7% / 42.3% |
8.1% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
4.9 / 6.7 |
47.6% / 68.9% |
19.0% / 11.1% |
3.3 / 5.4 |
58 / 71 |
42.5% / 63.0% |
36.2% / 59.2% |
44.2% / 60.8% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
36.2% / 63.4% |
25.5 / 24.8 |
13 |
KC |
33 – 40 L |
-10.1 |
48.8% / 55.3% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 7.8 |
67.9% / 48.5% |
17.9% / 15.2% |
6.1 / 5.4 |
69 / 71 |
52.6% / 57.7% |
56.5% / 52.1% |
49.8% / 52.5% |
6.4 / 6.6 |
4.3% / 1.4% |
40.6% / 46.5% |
31.7 / 29.9 |
14 |
PIT |
24 – 21 W |
0.3 |
57.9% / 59.0% |
10.5% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
7.9 / 7.7 |
34.6% / 31.6% |
34.6% / 26.3% |
2.2 / 2.1 |
64 / 58 |
52.1% / 50.0% |
48.4% / 50.0% |
33.8% / 22.1% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 32.8% |
28.2 / 29.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@IND |
34 – 23 W |
-3.1 |
60.0% / 56.4% |
6.7% / 3.6% |
3.6% / 1.9% |
7.6 / 5.5 |
65.0% / 54.5% |
20.0% / 22.7% |
5.1 / 3.4 |
50 / 77 |
64.3% / 53.3% |
62.0% / 55.8% |
38.8% / 10.0% |
6.6 / 4.9 |
2.0% / 1.3% |
40.0% / 28.6% |
26.2 / 33.4 |
2 |
BAL |
34 – 23 W |
11.8 |
45.2% / 49.1% |
0.0% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
6.3 / 6.3 |
42.9% / 50.0% |
28.6% / 18.2% |
3.9 / 3.0 |
70 / 79 |
45.6% / 50.0% |
44.3% / 49.4% |
43.7% / 35.5% |
5.3 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
40.0% / 27.8% |
36.3 / 22.6 |
3 |
@CAR |
21 – 31 L |
-4.5 |
53.2% / 40.0% |
4.3% / 4.0% |
8.9% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.9 |
53.8% / 47.6% |
23.1% / 21.4% |
5.1 / 5.5 |
60 / 67 |
56.0% / 46.2% |
53.3% / 44.8% |
58.1% / 54.8% |
6.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
21.7% / 62.7% |
23.5 / 30.5 |
4 |
@ATL |
37 – 36 W |
0.5 |
52.3% / 61.9% |
6.8% / 7.1% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 9.6 |
56.5% / 45.8% |
8.7% / 12.5% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
67 / 66 |
50.9% / 52.0% |
53.7% / 56.1% |
33.4% / 37.2% |
6.1 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.3% / 36.4% |
33.0 / 32.4 |
5 |
MIA |
27 – 17 W |
-4.6 |
68.2% / 77.3% |
9.1% / 13.6% |
5.0% / 10.5% |
10.4 / 7.7 |
29.6% / 45.5% |
25.9% / 13.6% |
3.9 / 5.8 |
49 / 44 |
45.7% / 48.9% |
46.9% / 61.4% |
52.9% / 25.3% |
6.8 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 2.3% |
55.1% / 50.0% |
22.9 / 25.5 |
6 |
PIT |
21 – 28 L |
-0.7 |
53.3% / 50.0% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 8.0 |
46.2% / 40.9% |
30.8% / 22.7% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
58 / 68 |
52.2% / 46.2% |
51.7% / 47.1% |
25.1% / 60.2% |
4.7 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
22.4% / 32.4% |
30.7 / 19.8 |
7 |
@KC |
10 – 45 L |
-19.4 |
42.9% / 61.0% |
5.7% / 4.9% |
3.0% / 2.6% |
5.0 / 8.6 |
47.4% / 51.7% |
26.3% / 10.3% |
3.4 / 6.8 |
54 / 70 |
47.6% / 54.4% |
44.4% / 57.1% |
42.3% / 52.5% |
4.4 / 7.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.2% / 41.4% |
26.6 / 24.0 |
8 |
TB |
37 – 34 W |
10.5 |
48.6% / 41.1% |
5.7% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
7.5 / 8.0 |
42.9% / 51.9% |
28.6% / 11.1% |
5.0 / 4.7 |
63 / 83 |
50.0% / 39.7% |
46.0% / 44.6% |
54.6% / 49.0% |
6.4 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 32.5% |
29.5 / 24.5 |
10 |
NO |
14 – 51 L |
-21.4 |
46.2% / 70.4% |
15.4% / 0.0% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 9.8 |
62.5% / 64.0% |
6.3% / 10.0% |
6.9 / 4.9 |
42 / 77 |
61.8% / 72.9% |
52.4% / 66.2% |
61.3% / 45.3% |
6.8 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.1% / 64.9% |
25.9 / 38.8 |
11 |
@BAL |
21 – 24 L |
-1.3 |
39.5% / 52.4% |
2.6% / 9.5% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
5.4 / 6.6 |
37.5% / 47.4% |
31.3% / 15.8% |
3.0 / 4.7 |
54 / 78 |
38.5% / 53.6% |
38.9% / 48.7% |
56.5% / 33.7% |
4.7 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
29.6% / 73.1% |
31.5 / 31.6 |
12 |
CLE |
20 – 35 L |
-17.6 |
48.9% / 69.2% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.9 |
55.0% / 47.2% |
25.0% / 27.8% |
6.5 / 2.4 |
67 / 62 |
54.9% / 60.4% |
50.7% / 56.5% |
40.1% / 51.2% |
5.6 / 5.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
29.9% / 58.1% |
27.0 / 33.8 |
13 |
DEN |
10 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
38.1% / 43.5% |
9.5% / 8.7% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
43.5% / 60.0% |
34.8% / 17.1% |
4.8 / 6.3 |
65 / 58 |
42.0% / 60.5% |
40.0% / 53.4% |
57.6% / 61.0% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
3.1% / 1.7% |
35.4% / 60.3% |
22.7 / 32.7 |
14 |
@LAC |
21 – 26 L |
-6.9 |
46.7% / 51.6% |
10.0% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 6.5 |
43.8% / 48.0% |
21.9% / 20.0% |
4.5 / 3.4 |
62 / 56 |
47.9% / 52.4% |
45.2% / 50.0% |
36.6% / 31.6% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.6% / 44.6% |
34.7 / 27.3 |