Game Analysis
Lean – NY Jets (+8) over TENNESSEE
The Jets have downgraded Sam Darnold to doubtful and veteran Josh McCown has a decent matchup versus Tennessee’s 23rd-rated pass defense that has the worst starting cornerback tandem in the league. Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson rank dead-last and 9th-worst surrendering 2.00 and 1.60 yards per cover snap respectively, and this could be a game in which McCown picks up his level of play. McCown has gained just 4.5 yards per pass play in two starts this season after throwing for 6.1 yards per pass play a season ago and he should produce good numbers today.
Titans’ quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing conservatively after finishing 28th in 2017 with a 3.3% interception rate and matching that poor rate through his first 6 games this season. Mariota had just 1 incomplete pass last week but held on to the ball too long, taking 6 sacks for 43 yards. Tennessee’s offense still managed to put up 7.0 yards per play on Houston’s 3rd-rated defense, but lack of creativity in the Redzone ultimately meant they didn’t come close to beating their divisional rival. New York’s defense ranks 25th in our numbers and it looks like defensive-specialist head coach Todd Bowles is on his way out at the end of this season. The Titans have only scored more than 20 points in three games all season, but I definitely expect Sunday to be the fourth as we have them projected for 25.5 points.
Our model favors Tennessee by 8.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.2, but I’ll be leaning with New York here based on a 98-43-2 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams that are on a straight up losing streak and have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. The NFL is a contrary league, betting wise, and the Jets are certainly a contrary play the way they’ve been playing lately. But, probably the right play given the history of similarly struggling teams.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
45.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
4.8%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.5%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.0%
40.6%
-
NYPP
6.4
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
29.7
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
30.5%
24.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.3%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
42.2%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
39.5%
45.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.5%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
29.6
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.2
34.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
50.9%
-
Sack Rate
11.6%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.2%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.9%
36.0%
-
NYPP
6.4
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
27.0
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
23.4%
21.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.5%
45.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.9%
34.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
59.0
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
45.4%
51.3%
-
Succ Rate
44.9%
48.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
38.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.2
29.8
-
Run Ratio
48.8%
44.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.1
29.0
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% / 44.2% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
4.8% / 9.6% |
7.8 / 5.8 |
32.6% / 37.5% |
9.3% / 25.0% |
4.0 / 2.5 |
66 / 68 |
53.8% / 51.0% |
43.9% / 42.6% |
55.1% / 37.9% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
65.2% / 23.5% |
40.7 / 23.0 |
2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% / 44.4% |
6.8% / 14.8% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.5 |
26.3% / 52.9% |
36.8% / 26.5% |
2.2 / 4.1 |
63 / 61 |
39.6% / 55.8% |
38.1% / 49.2% |
50.3% / 36.2% |
5.7 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 3.3% |
30.2% / 55.7% |
24.1 / 34.4 |
3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% / 36.6% |
6.1% / 9.8% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 4.6 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
43.3% / 31.4% |
3.6 / 3.9 |
63 / 76 |
42.6% / 42.6% |
42.9% / 39.5% |
22.4% / 32.3% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
47.6% / 46.1% |
23.2 / 33.3 |
4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% / 57.5% |
8.1% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
3.9 / 9.4 |
28.6% / 38.2% |
35.7% / 20.6% |
2.4 / 3.7 |
51 / 74 |
35.1% / 50.0% |
31.4% / 48.6% |
23.6% / 50.5% |
3.5 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 2.7% |
27.5% / 45.9% |
29.8 / 26.8 |
5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% / 71.8% |
9.1% / 10.3% |
10.0% / 2.9% |
17.2 / 8.8 |
46.2% / 47.1% |
17.9% / 47.1% |
8.3 / 5.4 |
50 / 56 |
42.6% / 56.1% |
52.0% / 64.3% |
74.5% / 42.2% |
10.3 / 7.8 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
78.0% / 30.4% |
28.8 / 26.2 |
6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% / 46.5% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
3.4% / 7.0% |
8.6 / 7.0 |
23.1% / 60.9% |
28.2% / 17.4% |
2.8 / 5.5 |
70 / 66 |
48.0% / 54.7% |
42.9% / 51.5% |
41.9% / 32.5% |
5.4 / 6.5 |
1.4% / 1.5% |
55.7% / 34.8% |
40.5 / 32.7 |
7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% / 34.1% |
6.7% / 2.4% |
7.1% / 0.0% |
4.3 / 5.6 |
37.5% / 24.0% |
33.3% / 44.0% |
3.0 / 3.6 |
69 / 66 |
33.3% / 35.4% |
30.4% / 30.3% |
50.2% / 58.0% |
3.8 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 37.9% |
27.3 / 41.4 |
8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% / 45.2% |
3.3% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 7.0 |
20.8% / 52.9% |
37.5% / 14.7% |
2.4 / 5.3 |
54 / 65 |
30.8% / 51.9% |
29.6% / 49.2% |
20.3% / 46.3% |
3.8 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 52.3% |
22.0 / 28.5 |
9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% / 42.9% |
9.3% / 14.3% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 3.7 |
38.1% / 24.1% |
28.6% / 24.1% |
3.8 / 2.3 |
64 / 57 |
42.9% / 40.0% |
35.9% / 33.3% |
41.8% / 15.3% |
4.4 / 3.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 50.9% |
18.4 / 32.4 |
10 |
BUF |
10 – 41 L |
-20.8 |
37.8% / 48.1% |
8.1% / 3.7% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 8.9 |
55.6% / 47.9% |
38.9% / 18.8% |
4.6 / 4.5 |
55 / 75 |
52.5% / 49.1% |
43.6% / 48.0% |
37.2% / 53.0% |
3.6 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.7% / 64.0% |
28.5 / 36.8 |
12 |
NE |
13 – 27 L |
-3.1 |
39.1% / 48.4% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 9.1 |
53.3% / 59.5% |
20.0% / 16.2% |
4.9 / 5.8 |
61 / 68 |
43.5% / 58.5% |
42.6% / 54.4% |
28.4% / 57.7% |
5.5 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
24.6% / 54.4% |
27.1 / 16.8 |
13 |
@TEN |
22 – 26 L |
8.4 |
40.6% / 36.8% |
6.3% / 7.9% |
3.3% / 2.9% |
3.9 / 7.2 |
42.4% / 34.8% |
33.3% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
65 / 61 |
46.0% / 43.8% |
41.5% / 36.1% |
28.9% / 69.6% |
4.3 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 37.7% |
32.3 / 25.3 |
14 |
@BUF |
27 – 23 W |
-4.8 |
48.0% / 37.5% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
4.0% / 5.4% |
6.8 / 4.8 |
30.0% / 45.2% |
33.3% / 19.4% |
2.7 / 5.7 |
55 / 71 |
37.8% / 38.6% |
38.2% / 40.8% |
38.4% / 39.4% |
4.5 / 5.2 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
54.5% / 43.7% |
47.1 / 27.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@MIA |
17 – 27 L |
-3.5 |
36.8% / 55.2% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
7.9% / 7.1% |
5.8 / 7.7 |
44.8% / 53.3% |
17.2% / 26.7% |
4.0 / 4.1 |
67 / 59 |
41.2% / 66.7% |
40.3% / 54.2% |
17.0% / 44.3% |
5.0 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.3% / 50.8% |
29.2 / 35.5 |
2 |
HOU |
20 – 17 W |
6.4 |
39.1% / 48.6% |
4.3% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
8.0 / 8.3 |
35.3% / 42.3% |
14.7% / 11.5% |
2.9 / 5.7 |
57 / 61 |
35.0% / 46.0% |
36.8% / 45.9% |
27.9% / 53.1% |
5.0 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
59.6% / 42.6% |
23.2 / 26.6 |
3 |
@JAC |
9 – 6 W |
1.5 |
45.8% / 37.8% |
12.5% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 3.9 |
42.9% / 52.6% |
25.7% / 15.8% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
59 / 56 |
47.7% / 46.3% |
44.1% / 42.9% |
34.3% / 10.3% |
3.9 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
59.3% / 33.9% |
28.2 / 23.3 |
4 |
PHI |
26 – 23 W |
-2.6 |
47.8% / 46.3% |
6.5% / 7.4% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 5.8 |
39.1% / 36.4% |
34.8% / 13.6% |
3.1 / 5.3 |
69 / 76 |
47.9% / 45.9% |
44.9% / 43.4% |
38.9% / 41.0% |
5.8 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
33.3% / 28.9% |
24.4 / 28.0 |
5 |
@BUF |
12 – 13 L |
-2.6 |
81.3% / 63.6% |
12.5% / 9.1% |
7.1% / 10.0% |
7.6 / 7.2 |
56.0% / 46.5% |
16.0% / 20.9% |
4.0 / 3.3 |
41 / 54 |
51.2% / 43.8% |
65.9% / 50.0% |
29.0% / 18.8% |
5.4 / 4.1 |
4.9% / 0.0% |
61.0% / 79.6% |
30.2 / 34.8 |
6 |
BAL |
0 – 21 L |
-13.2 |
26.9% / 45.9% |
42.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
2.0 / 6.4 |
28.6% / 44.4% |
35.7% / 27.8% |
3.9 / 3.4 |
40 / 73 |
33.3% / 37.7% |
27.5% / 45.2% |
42.5% / 44.5% |
2.7 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.0% / 49.3% |
21.9 / 29.9 |
7 |
@LAC |
19 – 20 L |
-4.9 |
58.8% / 57.1% |
5.9% / 7.1% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 10.6 |
48.5% / 35.3% |
18.2% / 17.6% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
67 / 45 |
51.0% / 52.9% |
53.7% / 48.9% |
33.1% / 55.4% |
5.8 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 37.8% |
27.5 / 29.0 |
9 |
@DAL |
28 – 14 W |
2.1 |
51.5% / 45.9% |
12.1% / 13.5% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
6.5 / 6.1 |
47.5% / 57.9% |
15.0% / 26.3% |
3.2 / 3.8 |
73 / 56 |
47.2% / 52.3% |
49.3% / 50.0% |
43.6% / 43.1% |
4.7 / 5.3 |
2.7% / 1.8% |
54.8% / 33.9% |
28.6 / 33.8 |
10 |
NE |
34 – 10 W |
13.0 |
55.6% / 40.0% |
7.4% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.7 / 5.4 |
47.2% / 31.6% |
25.0% / 36.8% |
4.2 / 2.1 |
63 / 64 |
52.9% / 41.3% |
50.8% / 37.5% |
67.5% / 44.4% |
6.1 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
57.1% / 29.7% |
34.2 / 24.3 |
11 |
@IND |
10 – 38 L |
-18.5 |
47.1% / 71.9% |
14.7% / 0.0% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.2 |
36.0% / 51.6% |
32.0% / 16.1% |
3.5 / 3.4 |
59 / 63 |
42.2% / 70.8% |
42.4% / 61.9% |
33.8% / 26.5% |
4.5 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.4% / 49.2% |
21.1 / 29.7 |
12 |
@HOU |
17 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
48.3% / 66.7% |
20.7% / 14.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.0 / 6.7 |
34.8% / 45.7% |
26.1% / 8.6% |
4.6 / 8.1 |
52 / 62 |
46.2% / 60.4% |
42.3% / 54.8% |
55.6% / 57.9% |
7.0 / 7.5 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
44.2% / 56.5% |
24.8 / 25.7 |
13 |
NYJ |
26 – 22 W |
-8.4 |
36.8% / 40.6% |
7.9% / 6.3% |
2.9% / 3.3% |
7.2 / 3.9 |
34.8% / 42.4% |
17.4% / 33.3% |
5.7 / 4.7 |
61 / 65 |
43.8% / 46.0% |
36.1% / 41.5% |
69.6% / 28.9% |
6.6 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.7% / 50.8% |
25.3 / 32.3 |
14 |
JAC |
30 – 9 W |
13.6 |
56.0% / 42.6% |
4.0% / 8.5% |
4.2% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 4.1 |
44.1% / 57.1% |
26.5% / 19.0% |
7.8 / 2.9 |
59 / 68 |
51.2% / 57.1% |
49.2% / 47.1% |
60.7% / 34.8% |
7.3 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
57.6% / 30.9% |
33.5 / 24.3 |