New York Jets @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Dec 2
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 373
Odds: Tennessee Titans -8, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Jets (+8) over TENNESSEE

The Jets have downgraded Sam Darnold to doubtful and veteran Josh McCown has a decent matchup versus Tennessee’s 23rd-rated pass defense that has the worst starting cornerback tandem in the league. Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson rank dead-last and 9th-worst surrendering 2.00 and 1.60 yards per cover snap respectively, and this could be a game in which McCown picks up his level of play. McCown has gained just 4.5 yards per pass play in two starts this season after throwing for 6.1 yards per pass play a season ago and he should produce good numbers today.

Titans’ quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing conservatively after finishing 28th in 2017 with a 3.3% interception rate and matching that poor rate through his first 6 games this season. Mariota had just 1 incomplete pass last week but held on to the ball too long, taking 6 sacks for 43 yards. Tennessee’s offense still managed to put up 7.0 yards per play on Houston’s 3rd-rated defense, but lack of creativity in the Redzone ultimately meant they didn’t come close to beating their divisional rival. New York’s defense ranks 25th in our numbers and it looks like defensive-specialist head coach Todd Bowles is on his way out at the end of this season. The Titans have only scored more than 20 points in three games all season, but I definitely expect Sunday to be the fourth as we have them projected for 25.5 points.

Our model favors Tennessee by 8.7 points, with a predicted total of 42.2, but I’ll be leaning with New  York here based on a 98-43-2 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams that are on a straight up losing streak and have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. The NFL is a contrary league, betting wise, and the Jets are certainly a contrary play the way they’ve been playing lately. But, probably the right play given the history of similarly struggling teams.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Titans
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.6 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.7% 45.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.4% 6.3%
  • Int Rate 4.8% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 17.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.0% 40.6%
  • NYPP 6.4 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.8 29.7
  • RB YPR 3.7 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 30.5% 24.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.3% 43.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.3% 46.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 60.5 66.5
  • Early Down Succ 42.2% 48.3%
  • Succ Rate 39.5% 45.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.5% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 28.2
  • Run Ratio 44.5% 44.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.0 29.6
  • Game Control -2.0 2.0
 
  • Points 20.8 25.4
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