Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Seattle Team Total Over (20.5 -115) 

Lean – SEATTLE (+1.5) over NY Jets

· Geno Smith has averaged only 4.6 yppp the last two games after averaging 6.9 yppp in the first 14 weeks, but I expect him to get back on track Sunday despite the Jets allowing a 44% dropback success rate (8th).

· Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett will be back on the field after missing the last game and he is worth 0.7 points to Seattle’s offense. The Seahawks have a 64% success rate when targeting Lockett this season (4th).

· New York cornerback Sauce Gardner leads the NFL in coverage grade according to PFF, but he lines up on the offense’s right side for 85% of his snaps meaning Seattle’s offense can scheme away from him. DK Metcalf has a 57% success rate when targeted (15th) and has lined up on the left side for over 60% of his snaps this year which would be opposite Gardner.

· Seahawks LG Damien Lewis ranks 19th in pass blocking efficiency and he will battle with Quinnen Williams, whose 12 sacks lead all interior defenders.

· Seattle’s offense is targeting tight ends on 24% of passes (7th-highest rate). TE Will Dissly is out with a knee contusion but TE Noah Fant will open versus a Jets defense allowing 7.8 yards per target to TEs (24th).

· Zach Wilson was benched in favor of Chris Streveler midway through the second half last Thursday night and it could be the last we see of Wilson in New York with Mike White cleared to suit up for this game.

· White’s first down rate versus a standard pass rush is 15 percentage points lower than against the blitz and he could struggle in this matchup as Seahawks only have a 15% blitz rate (31st).

· Jets WR Garrett Wilson is averaging 0.35 EPA/target (21st) and he will battle with fellow rookie CB Tariq Woolen, who ranks 10th in coverage grade by PFF.

· The Seahawks will likely be without Ryan Neal, who leads all safeties in coverage grade by PFF and is worth 0.8 points.

· Our model favors the Jets by 0.1, with a predicted total of 47.6 points, and Seattle applies to a 49-6 ATS situation that plays on teams on a straight up losing streak and a spread losing streak of 5 games or more. Seattle is due for a bounce-back game and I think the best play is a 1-Star Best Bet on the Seattle Team Total Over 20.5 (at 21 or less). The game 1-Star over 43 or less is the alternate play if you don’t have Team Totals (Strong Opinion to 44).