Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NY Jets (-1.5) over PITTSBURGH

Lean – Over (38)

• The Jets offense looked promising in Todd Downing’s first game calling the plays as they averaged 0.17 EPA/play and had a 73% motion rate which was up from 47% in the first 5 weeks.
• New York’s offense will evolve even further after trading for WR Davante Adams, who has a 59% success rate (10th) and has a history of success with Aaron Rodgers.
• Adams led the NFL with a 32% target share his last season with Rodgers and he is worth 0.9 points to the Jets offense by our numbers.
• New York is 2nd in neutral pass rate over the last month and I expect Rodgers to continue slinging it in a favorable matchup on Sunday night. Rodgers’ yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is 20% higher than it is against the blitz (6th) and Pittsburgh’s defense has a 75% standard pass rush rate (6th).
• Jets LG John Simpson ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit interior defender Cameron Heyward, whose 22 pressures rank 4th.
• New York RT Morgan Moses returned to action last week following his injury and he did not allow a single pressure against Buffalo. Moses will contain Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt, who has 4.5 sacks (11th).
• Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing a 56% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (29th) and they will struggle against screens to RB Breece Hall, who is averaging 1.31 yards per route run (9th).
• The Steelers appear to be handing the reins to Russell Wilson this week and he will be behind an offensive line without three starters after center Zach Frazier suffered an ankle injury last game. Jets interior defender Quinnen Williams has 16 pressures (13th) and he will wreak havoc across from backups Mason McCormick and Ryan McCollum.
• Pittsburgh RT Broderick Jones ranks 48th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 49 qualifying tackles and he will struggle across from edge defender Will McDonald, who has 7.0 sacks (3rd).
• New York cornerback DJ Reed is allowing 0.73 yards per cover snap (15th) but he is likely out on Sunday night along with safety Chuck Clark, who left last game in the first quarter due to an ankle injury and did not return.
• The Jets have the 7th-highest man-coverage rate in the NFL and All-Pro CB Sauce Gardner will shut down George Pickens. Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense struggles against man coverage with a yards per attempt just 80% of the yards per attempt versus zone (29th).
• Our model favors the Jets by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 41.2 points, but the true line is NYJ by 3.1 points when favoring in the extremely favorable matchups.

NY Jets are a Strong Opinion at -2 or less.