New York Jets @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Dec 21
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 109
Odds: New Orleans Saints -5, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Note: The line on New Orleans has moved out of Best Bet range.

1-Star Best Bet – *NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) over NY Jets

  • The betting market has lowered the Jets’ rating between 1.5 and 2 points since week 14, when they had Tyrod Taylor and TE Mason Taylor starting. Taylor has a 58% success rate (8th) but was sidelined before last week and rookie QB Brady Cook is a significant downgrade from the veteran Taylor.
  • Cook averaged 4.3 yppp last week with a 9.1% interception rate without WR Garrett Wilson or TE Mason Taylor on the field.
  • New York’s ground game will not save Cook as New Orleans is conceding -0.11 EPA/rush (7th).
  • Tyler Shough has a 46.9% success rate (22nd), which is sandwiched between Jaxon Dart and Jayden Daniels. Shough is averaging 0.3 more yppp than former Saints’ starter Spencer Rattler.
  • Our model favors the Saints by 8.3 points, with a predicted total of 41.9 points.

New Orleans is a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 or less.

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