Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (29) – NEW ENGLAND (-2) vs NY Jets

· This could be Bill Belichick’s last game in New England, and he will take a low scoring win in a winter storm with his offense missing four starters.

· Patriots starting LG Cole Strange is allowing a 6.7% pressure rate, but he is out and backup rookie LG Atonio Mafi is surrendering an 11.2% pressure rate. Jets interior defender Quinnen Williams ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from Mafi.

· New England’s starting left tackle Trent Brown is out. Backup LT Vederian Lowe is allowing a 12.6% pressure rate compared to Brown conceding just a 5.1% pressure rate.

· Bailey Zappe will be facing consistent pressure and he will need the screen game to work. However, RB Ezekiel Elliott will be shut down as New York’s defense is conceding a 36% pass success rate to running backs (6th).

· Tight end Hunter Henry leads the Patriots with 0.31 EPA/target but he will be sidelined and backup Mike Gesicki is averaging only 0.02 EPA/target.

· New England’s offense will also be without WR Kendrick Bourne again. WR Demario Douglas is averaging 1.89 yards per route run in the slot (8th) but he will be contained by Jets nickelback Michael Carter, who is allowing only 0.58 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd).

· I do not expect New York head coach Robert Saleh to ask much of Trevor Siemian through the air with the wet conditions, but the ground game is unlikely to be the answer. The Patriots are conceding only a 33.8% rush success rate (2nd).

· Our model favors the Jets by 0.8 points, with a predicted total of just 24.9 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion Under 28.5 or more.