New York Jets @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Teams that are 16 point favorites or more have unsurprisingly been 49-3 in the past 25 years, with the last loss coming in 1995 when the eventual Super Bowl Champ – Dallas Cowboys were upset in week 14 as 17.5 point favorites in a divisional game against Washington. The last time a team was 16.5 favorite or more was three years ago, yet the Patriots are a 16.5 point favorite this week and the Steelers are a 16.5 point initial favorites over the Browns in week 17. The (12-2) Patriots have won 5 straight as Touchdown Tom Brady continues his NFL revenge tour, as he is averaging 7.8 NYPP with a 22-2 TD-INT ratio. However, in the recent 5 game win streak, it has been the defense that has improved their play, holding opponents to an average of 14 points per game. The Pats came from behind to defeat the Jets (22-17) in New Jersey in week 12 with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Now, Bryce Petty has been given the third straight start against the AFC-leading Pats and the former Baylor product has been the worst of the QBs that have suited up for the Gang Green, as he has averaged 5.2 NYPP with a 3-6 TD-INT ratio. The advanced stats model shows value on the Under, so UNDER (43.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to the Patriots (-16.5).

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Patriots

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.8 36.1
Succ Pass Plays 41.2% 49.5%
Sack Rate 6.2% 4.6%
Int Rate 4.0% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 22.3% 16.9%
Big Pass Yards 41.1% 43.6%
NYPP 6.0 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 25.9 27.3
RB YPR 4.2 3.6
Stuff Rate 19.7% 32.8%
Succ Rush Plays 46.4% 35.1%
Big Rush Yards 33.5% 48.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.6

Game

All Snaps 63.7 63.4
Early Down Succ 45.6% 46.9%
Succ Rate 43.3% 42.9%
Big Yards Rate 40.0% 48.3%
Yards Per Play 5.3 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.0
Run Ratio 40.0% 43.1%
Starting Field Pos 25.6 29.4
Game Control -5.1 5.1

Points 17.3 25.6

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.4 40.6
Succ Pass Plays 49.5% 44.5%
Sack Rate 4.7% 5.9%
Int Rate 0.4% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 17.6% 22.1%
Big Pass Yards 41.7% 38.2%
NYPP 7.5 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 30.8 22.8
RB YPR 3.8 3.6
Stuff Rate 21.5% 23.9%
Succ Rush Plays 44.6% 46.8%
Big Rush Yards 36.9% 26.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.8

Game

All Snaps 67.2 63.4
Early Down Succ 50.0% 47.9%
Succ Rate 47.5% 45.2%
Big Yards Rate 41.5% 37.4%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 27.5
Run Ratio 45.9% 35.8%
Starting Field Pos 29.6 24.6
Game Control 7.0 -7.0

Points 26.1 16.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	22 – 23 L	1.8	36.1% / 48.6%	2.8% / 18.9%	2.9% / 3.3%	5.2 / 8.8	56.7% / 42.1%	16.7% / 26.3%	5.1 / 3.1	66 / 56	48.1% / 52.3%	45.5% / 46.4%	40.6% / 68.6%	5.2 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	45.5% / 33.9%	33.5 / 26.2
2	@BUF	37 – 31 W	2.8	57.1% / 53.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.3%	10.6 / 10.2	45.9% / 47.4%	16.2% / 42.1%	3.4 / 4.5	72 / 49	50.9% / 56.8%	51.4% / 51.0%	54.5% / 54.5%	6.9 / 8.0	1.4% / 0.0%	51.4% / 38.8%	24.6 / 26.1
3	@KC	3 – 24 L	-10.3	34.1% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.7%	13.6% / 0.0%	4.3 / 6.3	50.0% / 30.0%	13.6% / 33.3%	5.3 / 2.5	66 / 65	36.0% / 43.2%	39.4% / 40.0%	39.0% / 40.2%	4.6 / 4.6	3.0% / 1.5%	33.3% / 46.2%	30.1 / 27.3
4	SEA	17 – 27 L	-5.2	40.0% / 61.8%	8.9% / 5.9%	7.3% / 0.0%	5.5 / 8.5	30.0% / 31.0%	25.0% / 31.0%	2.9 / 2.4	65 / 63	32.7% / 57.4%	36.9% / 47.6%	16.7% / 56.3%	4.7 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	30.8% / 46.0%	20.3 / 32.8
5	@PIT	13 – 31 L	-4.6	46.3% / 60.4%	7.3% / 2.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 7.8	47.1% / 26.9%	29.4% / 23.1%	4.2 / 2.4	58 / 74	54.3% / 52.5%	46.6% / 48.6%	8.9% / 23.9%	5.4 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.4%	29.3% / 35.1%	21.1 / 32.3
6	@ARI	3 – 28 L	-12.2	39.5% / 60.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.4	21.4% / 40.5%	21.4% / 29.7%	2.4 / 4.7	52 / 72	40.5% / 52.6%	34.6% / 50.0%	25.7% / 27.9%	4.4 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	26.9% / 51.4%	20.9 / 25.7
7	BAL	24 – 16 W	-0.4	37.0% / 34.1%	18.5% / 2.3%	0.0% / 4.7%	7.0 / 5.4	37.5% / 8.3%	15.0% / 58.3%	3.9 / 0.5	67 / 56	38.8% / 31.0%	37.3% / 28.6%	59.4% / 41.6%	5.1 / 4.4	3.0% / 1.8%	59.7% / 21.4%	32.3 / 25.3
8	@CLE	31 – 28 W	-3.1	36.1% / 38.5%	5.6% / 1.9%	0.0% / 3.9%	6.2 / 6.5	45.7% / 44.4%	28.6% / 38.9%	4.9 / 3.8	71 / 70	39.6% / 37.0%	40.8% / 40.0%	55.8% / 53.3%	5.5 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 25.7%	30.8 / 22.3
9	@MIA	23 – 27 L	-2.0	42.4% / 50.0%	9.1% / 3.3%	6.7% / 0.0%	5.8 / 4.6	47.6% / 36.4%	23.8% / 39.4%	6.7 / 4.2	54 / 63	48.8% / 44.9%	44.4% / 42.9%	51.2% / 46.2%	6.1 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	38.9% / 52.4%	27.5 / 34.7
10	LA	6 – 9 L	0.5	39.4% / 36.4%	3.0% / 9.1%	3.1% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.7	48.0% / 40.5%	32.0% / 27.0%	5.6 / 3.5	58 / 70	47.8% / 43.8%	43.1% / 38.6%	50.3% / 49.1%	5.1 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 52.9%	17.7 / 27.6
12	NE	17 – 22 L	1.3	54.5% / 46.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.7	45.8% / 40.0%	12.5% / 16.0%	2.7 / 3.8	57 / 75	54.5% / 51.9%	50.9% / 44.0%	45.2% / 36.3%	5.9 / 5.1	3.5% / 0.0%	42.1% / 33.3%	22.2 / 31.9
13	IND	10 – 41 L	-20.5	39.5% / 70.0%	2.6% / 3.3%	8.1% / 0.0%	5.6 / 9.4	53.3% / 30.2%	13.3% / 16.3%	2.5 / 3.3	53 / 73	50.0% / 50.0%	43.4% / 46.6%	31.9% / 44.3%	4.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.4%	28.3% / 58.9%	18.3 / 43.7
14	@SF	23 – 17 W	-11.9	41.5% / 32.1%	14.6% / 7.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.3 / 4.1	55.0% / 48.1%	15.0% / 25.9%	4.7 / 9.2	81 / 55	48.4% / 47.6%	48.1% / 40.0%	38.4% / 70.3%	5.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	49.4% / 49.1%	27.8 / 28.8
15	MIA	13 – 35 L	-7.8	32.7% / 52.6%	6.1% / 5.3%	6.5% / 5.6%	5.0 / 12.4	65.2% / 25.9%	13.0% / 51.9%	5.0 / 2.5	72 / 46	48.1% / 35.3%	43.1% / 37.0%	42.5% / 63.7%	5.0 / 6.6	1.4% / 0.0%	31.9% / 58.7%	31.5 / 27.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ARI	23 – 21 W	5.0	51.4% / 50.0%	5.7% / 7.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 6.3	31.3% / 57.9%	34.4% / 15.8%	3.3 / 4.8	67 / 59	36.7% / 53.2%	41.8% / 52.5%	45.9% / 38.1%	5.4 / 5.8	3.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 32.2%	24.7 / 29.2
2	MIA	31 – 24 W	16.3	55.3% / 65.9%	5.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.5%	8.0 / 8.8	41.0% / 50.0%	20.5% / 18.8%	4.2 / 4.4	77 / 60	47.5% / 65.3%	48.1% / 61.7%	38.8% / 41.2%	6.1 / 7.7	1.3% / 3.3%	50.6% / 26.7%	31.4 / 22.7
3	HOU	27 – 0 W	13.1	40.0% / 48.8%	5.0% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	4.9 / 4.1	48.8% / 40.7%	22.0% / 22.2%	4.6 / 4.0	61 / 70	54.5% / 50.0%	45.9% / 45.7%	51.1% / 13.4%	4.7 / 4.1	0.0% / 2.9%	67.2% / 38.6%	40.5 / 15.6
4	BUF	0 – 16 L	-11.1	43.3% / 43.9%	10.0% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 6.0	40.9% / 56.3%	27.3% / 21.9%	4.1 / 4.2	52 / 73	51.4% / 50.0%	42.3% / 49.3%	34.3% / 22.8%	5.3 / 5.2	1.9% / 0.0%	42.3% / 43.8%	22.9 / 23.3
5	@CLE	33 – 13 W	15.1	47.6% / 45.9%	2.4% / 5.4%	0.0% / 2.9%	9.6 / 6.4	42.1% / 13.0%	15.8% / 39.1%	2.6 / 1.2	80 / 60	46.6% / 34.1%	45.0% / 33.3%	54.3% / 28.5%	6.3 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	47.5% / 38.3%	30.6 / 20.7
6	CIN	35 – 17 W	4.4	60.5% / 48.5%	7.9% / 6.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 7.2	39.1% / 53.1%	26.1% / 28.1%	3.4 / 3.8	61 / 65	54.0% / 52.9%	52.5% / 50.8%	51.5% / 48.2%	7.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 49.2%	28.0 / 22.9
7	@PIT	27 – 16 W	6.2	57.7% / 39.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	8.5 / 6.1	53.3% / 40.9%	16.7% / 27.3%	4.7 / 4.3	56 / 68	57.1% / 42.0%	55.4% / 39.7%	33.1% / 35.7%	6.5 / 5.5	3.6% / 0.0%	53.6% / 32.4%	29.6 / 32.3
8	@BUF	41 – 25 W	12.9	50.0% / 31.0%	13.2% / 4.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.0	41.7% / 61.5%	29.2% / 19.2%	3.0 / 6.4	62 / 68	42.6% / 45.1%	46.8% / 42.6%	43.0% / 58.2%	5.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 38.2%	31.4 / 27.0
10	SEA	24 – 31 L	-1.0	55.9% / 57.5%	5.9% / 7.5%	3.1% / 0.0%	8.9 / 8.1	53.6% / 46.2%	28.6% / 19.2%	2.9 / 3.7	62 / 66	54.9% / 53.7%	54.8% / 53.0%	44.2% / 39.8%	6.2 / 6.4	1.6% / 0.0%	45.2% / 39.4%	26.1 / 28.5
11	@SF	30 – 17 W	7.6	47.5% / 40.0%	2.5% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	51.6% / 51.9%	12.9% / 29.6%	5.5 / 4.5	71 / 62	48.1% / 47.9%	49.3% / 45.2%	51.2% / 39.1%	6.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 43.5%	32.8 / 23.5
12	@NYJ	22 – 17 W	-1.3	46.0% / 54.5%	0.0% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 8.2	40.0% / 45.8%	16.0% / 12.5%	3.8 / 2.7	75 / 57	51.9% / 54.5%	44.0% / 50.9%	36.3% / 45.2%	5.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 3.5%	33.3% / 42.1%	31.9 / 22.2
13	LA	26 – 10 W	15.0	45.7% / 16.7%	0.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 6.3%	5.8 / 3.5	41.9% / 28.6%	25.8% / 28.6%	4.4 / 2.6	77 / 50	50.9% / 22.9%	44.2% / 20.0%	23.5% / 40.5%	5.2 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 28.0%	27.6 / 25.1
14	BAL	30 – 23 W	8.9	51.3% / 40.7%	2.6% / 3.7%	2.6% / 1.9%	10.3 / 5.7	59.3% / 50.0%	11.1% / 28.6%	3.6 / 3.0	66 / 68	57.4% / 44.2%	54.5% / 42.6%	54.3% / 37.9%	7.5 / 5.1	3.0% / 0.0%	40.9% / 20.6%	27.3 / 28.7
15	@DEN	16 – 3 W	6.6	41.2% / 40.9%	5.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 2.5%	5.2 / 5.7	40.0% / 58.8%	15.0% / 23.5%	3.4 / 3.4	74 / 61	46.3% / 54.2%	40.5% / 45.9%	19.4% / 35.0%	4.2 / 5.1	0.0% / 3.3%	54.1% / 27.9%	29.5 / 23.1

New York Jets @

New England Patriots

Sat, Dec 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis