Game Analysis

Minnesota (-2.5) vs NY JETS

• Denver’s defense had a 43% blitz rate last week against Aaron Rodgers and New York’s quarterback averaged -0.29 EPA/play when the Broncos sent extra pass rushers.
• Rodgers is going to need to figure out answers to the blitz in a hurry as Minnesota’s defense has a 51.0% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• The most obvious solution is a heavy-screen game. Jets RB Breece Hall is averaging 1.43 yards per route run (8th) but he will be limited by a Vikings defense that is conceding -0.28 EPA/target to opposing running backs (3rd).
• Instead, Rodgers will need to find WR Garrett Wilson when blitzed. Wilson got open on 16 routes last week, leading the NFL, and will line up across from Minnesota nickelback Byron Murphy, who is surrendering a league-high 2.03 yards per cover snap.
• Rodgers will get the ball out to Wilson quickly as rookie RT Olu Fashanu is not looking ready to be on the field. Fashanu had a rough NFL starting debut, allowing 6 of the 11 pressures charged to New York’s offensive line. The Vikings’ edge defenders have 22 pressures against right tackles.
• Minnesota’s interior offensive line is at fault for a league-high 66% of the pressures the Vikings have allowed, and they will struggle with the Jets interior defenders. Quinnen Williams 9 pressures (19th) and Javon Kinlaw ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency.
• New York’s defense is allowing only a 26% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (2nd) and they will contain RB Aaron Jones, who is gaining 2.17 yards per route run (3rd).
• Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson is averaging 0.85 EPA/target (3rd) and head coach Kevin O’Connell will need to get him motioned into the slot. Jets outside cornerback Sauce Gardner has a 55% separation prevention rate (12th) and DJ Reed is conceding only 0.28 yards per cover snap on the other side (2nd). Meanwhile, New York nickelback Michael Carter is surrendering 1.41 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst).
• The Vikings have a 69.1% motion rate (5th-highest) and the Jets defense is allowing 34% more yards per pass play against motion than not (31st).
• This game will be played in London on turf and there looks like possible rain on Sunday.
• Our model makes Minnesota a 2.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.6 points.