Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Over (44.5) – MINNESOTA (-3) vs NY Jets

· Mike White leads the NFL with a 54.2% success rate in the 5 games he’s played in since the start of last season. Patrick Mahomes has a 53.8% success rate for reference.

· We do not rate the Jets suddenly as one of the league’s best offenses with White in charge, but he is clearly an upgrade of Zach Wilson, who has a 39.3% career success rate.

· New York’s offense is also getting a boost from WR Corey Davis getting back on the field. Davis got 23 routes in his first game back from an MCL sprain last week and Denzel Mims only ran 7 routes. Davis is averaging 0.31 EPA/target this season compared to Mims’ 0.08 EPA/target.

· Jets WR Elijah Moore had 64 yards in the slot last week and Garrett Wilson is gaining 1.92 yards per route run in the slot. I expect White to target Moore and Wilson on the inside on Sunday across from Chandon Sullivan, who is surrendering 1.56 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 18th out of 20 qualifying nickelbacks.

· New York running backs have a 23.6% target rate (6th-highest) and they should attack Vikings linebacker Jordan Hicks, who surrendered 98 yards and a touchdown last week. Hicks has allowed 541 receiving yards this season and Minnesota’s defense is surrendering 6.7 yards per target to running backs (30th).

· Vikings edge defender Za’Darius Smith ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency but he will be limited by Jets tackle Duane Brown, who has allowed only one sack since becoming the starting left tackle in week 5.

· Minnesota’s trade for tight end TJ Hockenson is paying dividends for wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Hockenson is now taking the intermediate routes freeing Jefferson to attack downfield. Jefferson leads the NFL with 6 catches from balls with at least 20 air yards since week 9 when Hockenson arrived.

· Jefferson is leading the league averaging 3.63 yards per route run in the slot and I think Kevin O’Connell will look to get him lined up on the inside against New York’s worst cornerback Michael Carter, who is allowing a reception every 7.9 cover snaps (6th-most).

· Kirk Cousins should have his blindside once again protected by LT Christian Darrisaw, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency but missed the Thanksgiving game with a concussion. Darrisaw will handle Jets edge rusher Carl Lawson and the Vikings will likely double team interior defender Quinnen Williams, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Vikings by 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 49.4 points, but I used the Vikings in my spread pool at -3 based on a 135-57-1 ATS situation that they apply to this week. The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 45 points or less and a 1-Star over 46 points.