Game Analysis

Lean – NY Jets (+3) at MIAMI

Lean – Under (37)

· The Dolphins have lost five-straight games and starters are dropping like flies on both sides of the ball.

· Miami is preparing to be without Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, who is dealing with a dislocated pinkie. Skylar Thompson has just a 37% success rate this season compared to Bridgewater’s 49% success rate and Tagovailoa’s 50% success rate. I’ll assume that Thompson will start.

· Thompson played when the Dolphins met the Jets earlier this season. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for just 83 scrimmage yards in the game.

· Dolphins edge defender Bradley Chubb has 49 pressures (23rd) but he picked up a hand injury on Christmas and hasn’t seen the field since then, but he’ll likely return this week.

· Miami left guard Liam Eichenberg is surrendering a 7% pressure rate and he will struggle across from Quinnen Williams, who has 12 sacks ranking 2nd among interior defenders. Eichenberg ranks 46th in pass blocking efficiency out of 52 qualifying guards in the 9 weeks he has started.

· New York edge defender John Franklin-Myers had 4 pressures last week and he will be another problem for the Dolphins lined up across from RT Brandon Shell, who ranks 53rd out of 58 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency.

· Mike White is out with a rib injury and veteran Joe Flacco will get the start at quarterback for the Jets. Flacco will be playing behind an offensive line that will be without 3 starters.

· Our model favors Miami by 1.8 points, with a predicted total of 35.6 points, and the Jets apply to a 117-53-5 ATS late season situation.