Game Analysis
Lean – Over (38) – MIAMI (-3.5) vs New York Jets
The Dolphins are somehow above .500 despite being outgained in yards per play in all 5 games this season. The usual luck factors don’t apply here either, as Miami is worse than their opponents on 3rd down, in the redzone, and turnover margin. Furthermore, the Dolphins average worse starting field position than their opponents – they’ve just made their big plays at the perfect times, which isn’t predictive moving forward.
New York’s 10th ranked pass offense gets a Dolphins pass defense ranked 25th according to my metrics. Josh McCown threw for 9.3 yppp when these two teams squared off in week 3 and I expect the Jets air attack to be successful again in this game.
Miami’s offense has been unlucky to only convert 28% of 3rd downs this season – even the worst teams typically convert more than 30% and I expect the Dolphins to improve on 3rd down moving forward. This game has one of the lowest totals of the year and I’ll lean over here.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.5
36.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
3.1%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.3%
21.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.0%
37.6%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.8
31.0
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
31.0%
25.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.7%
47.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.0%
37.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
67.2
-
Early Down Succ
45.4%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
42.7%
45.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.7%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
27.5
-
Run Ratio
42.2%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
28.4
-
Game Control
-0.3
0.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.4
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.8%
50.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.7%
13.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
17.6%
25.4%
-
NYPP
4.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.4
23.2
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
34.0%
37.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.7%
37.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
24.4%
64.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
60.8
59.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
41.9%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
22.4%
34.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.0
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
30.9
-
Run Ratio
41.2%
38.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
26.2
-
Game Control
-4.1
4.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% /
43.3% |
2.5% /
6.7% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
25.0% /
33.3% |
31.3% /
24.4% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
56 /
75 |
35.9% /
37.7% |
33.9% /
37.3% |
26.5% /
68.1% |
3.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
60.0% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% /
64.3% |
13.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
61.5% /
40.7% |
19.2% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
55 /
55 |
53.7% /
48.8% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
43.0% /
56.1% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
49.1% |
27.1 /
35.7 |
| 3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% /
41.7% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
9.3 /
4.1 |
37.1% /
46.7% |
34.3% /
46.7% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
60 /
63 |
48.9% /
54.2% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
40.1% /
11.6% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
58.3% /
23.8% |
31.4 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
30.6% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
3.8 |
31.3% /
57.5% |
43.8% /
20.0% |
8.0 /
4.4 |
68 /
76 |
37.3% /
50.8% |
38.2% /
44.7% |
68.6% /
27.6% |
6.9 /
4.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
52.6% |
29.5 /
27.0 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% /
45.9% |
9.1% /
2.7% |
3.3% /
5.6% |
5.4 /
7.5 |
19.0% /
45.5% |
33.3% /
18.2% |
1.8 /
4.2 |
54 /
70 |
45.9% /
46.3% |
38.9% /
45.7% |
32.1% /
40.1% |
4.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.9% /
47.1% |
29.0 /
30.1 |
| 6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% /
39.5% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
61.5% |
24.0% /
7.7% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
75 /
64 |
50.9% /
49.0% |
49.3% /
48.4% |
46.0% /
29.5% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
1.3% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
40.6% |
24.0 /
28.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% /
62.5% |
5.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
8.1 |
36.4% /
28.6% |
30.3% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
69 /
54 |
43.4% /
58.7% |
40.6% /
53.7% |
38.9% /
28.6% |
4.9 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
25.9% |
26.4 /
24.9 |
| 3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.3 |
46.7% /
37.1% |
46.7% /
34.3% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
60 |
54.2% /
48.9% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
11.6% /
40.1% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
23.8% /
58.3% |
23.7 /
31.4 |
| 4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
2.4% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
60.0% /
46.4% |
40.0% /
14.3% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
47 /
69 |
52.6% /
46.3% |
44.7% /
47.8% |
31.7% /
46.1% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
40.6% |
27.0 /
28.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% /
36.8% |
3.6% /
15.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
3.1 |
43.8% /
30.0% |
28.1% /
45.0% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
37.2% /
40.0% |
35.0% /
34.5% |
6.1% /
19.1% |
3.0 /
3.2 |
1.7% /
3.4% |
53.3% /
34.5% |
27.0 /
25.1 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
20 – 17 W |
-7.7 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
2.9% |
4.6 /
6.6 |
46.9% /
47.4% |
25.0% /
42.1% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
65 /
55 |
47.9% /
48.8% |
46.2% /
49.1% |
23.8% /
40.1% |
4.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
34.5% |
30.2 /
20.7 |
New York Jets
@ 
Miami Dolphins