New York Jets @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Oct 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 459
Odds: Miami Dolphins -3.5, Total: 38

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (38) – MIAMI (-3.5) vs New York Jets

The Dolphins are somehow above .500 despite being outgained in yards per play in all 5 games this season. The usual luck factors don’t apply here either, as Miami is worse than their opponents on 3rd down, in the redzone, and turnover margin. Furthermore, the Dolphins average worse starting field position than their opponents – they’ve just made their big plays at the perfect times, which isn’t predictive moving forward.

New York’s 10th ranked pass offense gets a Dolphins pass defense ranked 25th according to my metrics. Josh McCown threw for 9.3 yppp when these two teams squared off in week 3 and I expect the Jets air attack to be successful again in this game.

Miami’s offense has been unlucky to only convert 28% of 3rd downs this season – even the worst teams typically convert more than 30% and I expect the Dolphins to improve on 3rd down moving forward. This game has one of the lowest totals of the year and I’ll lean over here.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Dolphins
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.5 36.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 44.2%
  • Sack Rate 9.2% 3.1%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 3.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 12.3% 21.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.0% 37.6%
  • NYPP 6.1 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.8 31.0
  • RB YPR 3.7 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 31.0% 25.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 35.7% 47.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.0% 37.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 61.3 67.2
  • Early Down Succ 45.4% 47.8%
  • Succ Rate 42.7% 45.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.7% 38.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.1 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.4 27.5
  • Run Ratio 42.2% 45.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.5 28.4
  • Game Control -0.3 0.3
 
  • Points 18.2 21.7
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