Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – JACKSONVILLE (-13 -115) over NY Jets

• The Jaguars are 13.5-point favorites, the most Jacksonville has been favored in franchise history, and I do not think the market has gone far enough.
• The Jets will be starting undrafted rookie quarterback Brady Cook, who averaged 3.8 yppp last week with a 6.7% interception rate. Cook is 3 points worse than Tyrod Taylor according to our metrics.
• New York’s passing attack is averaging 0.2 yards per attempt fewer without WR Garrett Wilson on the field this season.
• Cook will not have Wilson, and the Jets will also be without starting TE Mason Taylor, who has a 58% success rate (7th).
• New York will not be able to support the rookie quarterback with the ground game as Jacksonville’s defense is conceding -0.13 EPA/rush (5th).
• The Jets’ offense was already overrated before starting an undrafted rookie without its top two receivers because New York has 4 special teams touchdowns through 14 weeks, the most any team has had through 13 games in the last 11 seasons.
• The Jaguars have opened up the offense since the bye week, with head coach Liam Coen building trust with Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville is averaging 3.0 screens per game fewer than before the bye, and Lawrence is throwing downfield more often, with 45% of passes having 10+ air yards compared to 35% before the bye.
• Sure-handed Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers is leading the NFL with a 68% success rate since Jacksonville traded for him before week 10.
• Lawrence is averaging 15% more yards per attempt against man-coverage compared to zone, which leads the NFL, and he has a favorable matchup as the Jets have the 7th-highest man-coverage rate.
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 16.3 points, with a predicted total of 42.2 points.

Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at -14 or less.