New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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INDIANAPOLIS (-11) vs NY Jets

The Jets have truly been a disaster this season and have our worst year-to-date rating by more than a point. New York’s receiving corps has been decimated with rookie Denzel Mims starting the year on the IR, Jamison Crowder going inactive last week and both Breshad Perriman (ankle) and Chris Hogan (ribs) picking up injuries as well. Braxton Berrios is the only healthy receiver on the Jets roster and that’s bad news for quarterback Sam Darnold.

New York’s offensive line is last in pass blocking efficiency and I’m projecting a disruptive outing for Colts’ interior defender DeForest Buckner, who has 2 sacks already in 2020, and will be up against guards Greg Van Roten and Alex Lewis, who have combined to concede a league-high 16 pressures.

Sam Darnold has nothing to work with and this Indianapolis defense has been stout thus far in conceding only 4.6 yards per play (2nd). I do not believe the loss of safety Malik Hooker (worth 0.6 points by our metrics) will be a problem for the Colts in this matchup.

Indianapolis also lost WR Parris Campbell to injury. Campbell leads the team in yards per route run this season but I think that is the result of small sample size. TY Hilton and Zach Pascal were better in 2019 and the loss of Campbell is not significant for the Colts offense. Philip Rivers should shred New York’s 27th-ranked pass defense even without Campbell. The Colts have converted just 30% of third downs despite a lot of manageable distances, so the offense should improve as I expect them to convert around 40% of third downs the rest of the season.

Our model favors the Colts by 9.6 points, with a predicted total of 43.9 points, but I have no interest in backing the Jets.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Colts

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.5 39.5
Succ Pass Plays 38.1% 54.2%
Sack Rate 5.5% 8.1%
Int Rate 1.4% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 16.8% 11.9%
Big Pass Yards 46.2% 18.4%
NYPP 5.3 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 22.0 30.5
RB YPR 3.4 4.3
Stuff Rate 23.8% 39.8%
Succ Rush Plays 54.1% 34.1%
Big Rush Yards 16.8% 61.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.7

Game

All Snaps 57.5 70.0
Early Down Succ 48.2% 43.5%
Succ Rate 43.5% 45.0%
Big Yards Rate 40.2% 38.1%
Yards Per Play 4.6 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 24.0 31.6
Run Ratio 37.5% 44.3%
Starting Field Pos 24.7 33.7
Game Control -13.6 13.6

Points 15.0 29.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BUF	17 – 27 L	-12.9	36.8% / 55.1%	7.9% / 6.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.2	60.0% / 40.6%	20.0% / 31.3%	3.5 / 3.1	53 / 81	47.5% / 48.4%	43.4% / 49.4%	47.2% / 27.5%	4.8 / 5.0	1.9% / 2.5%	28.3% / 39.5%	20.7 / 39.5
2	SF	13 – 31 L	-14.2	39.4% / 53.3%	3.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 3.7%	5.2 / 5.9	48.3% / 27.6%	27.6% / 48.3%	3.6 / 6.3	62 / 59	48.9% / 38.6%	43.5% / 40.7%	33.2% / 48.7%	4.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	46.8% / 49.2%	28.7 / 27.9

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	20 – 27 L	2.5	55.3% / 62.5%	2.1% / 16.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.3	36.4% / 39.1%	27.3% / 17.4%	4.0 / 4.0	69 / 47	53.7% / 52.8%	49.3% / 51.1%	30.1% / 34.9%	6.4 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.9% / 48.9%	27.0 / 31.0
2	MIN	28 – 11 W	9.3	51.9% / 24.1%	7.4% / 10.3%	4.0% / 11.5%	7.5 / 3.3	50.0% / 38.9%	17.5% / 11.1%	3.8 / 4.4	67 / 47	56.6% / 32.4%	50.7% / 29.8%	34.5% / 41.7%	5.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	59.7% / 38.3%	44.6 / 20.5

New York Jets @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Sep 27

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis