New York Jets @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New York Jets (+6.5) over DETROIT

The Lions brought in Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to be their new head coach this offseason. Bill Belichick has had four coordinators receive head coaching jobs – Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels, and Bill O’Brien – and none of the four have a career record above .500. However, all of them improved their teams drastically in the first season by an average of 7.5 points per game. It should be pointed out that hiring a new coach usually means a team was on the negative end of some unlucky variance the prior season and point differential improvement is likely exaggerating the impact of the coaching change. Our end-of-season power ratings show the Belichick disciples actually improved their teams more on the order of 3.5 points per game in their first season. However, all of the previous four took over bad teams, which tend to improve in general, and the Lions have less room for upward mobility. In fact, our projections don’t expect much of an improvement at all in Patricia’s first season in charge.

The Lions tied for the league-lead in pick-6’s and gained the 3^rd-most points from takeaways in 2017 according to our metrics, but that good fortune is unlikely to continue. The year-to-year correlation of expected points added from takeaways is just 0.02, which is less than the correlation of takeaway rate because it is dependent on even more luck in the form of field position and return yards. The 2018 Lions defense will not be able to count on these points gained from takeaways, especially considering they will play a less aggressive style. Patricia will bring over New England’s ‘bend but don’t break’ defensive scheme best quantified by the statistic yards allowed per point allowed where the Patriots never ranked outside the top 7 in his six years as coordinator. The scheme relies on never getting beat over the top and Detroit has one of the NFL’s best free safeties in Glover Quin, who ranked 4th last season in yards allowed per cover snap.

Quarterback Matt Safford’s career record against winning teams is just 6-52 but the Lions will run him out there again along with offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter because they might have been on to something in the second half of last season. Detroit’s offense averaged 1.5 more yards per play after their bye week as Stafford’s deep pass rate went from 9.8% to 14.1%, which would be the highest of his career and improve the offense.

New York’s quarterback Josh McCown threw for 6.1 yards per pass play last year (18th) but will now backup third-overall pick Sam Darnold. Our quarterback model makes Darnold worse by about a half point entering the season but he obviously has more future upside. New York’s best receiver, Robby Anderson, was one of 12 players gaining more than 2 yards per route run before McCown was injured late last season, but now he’s facing a possible suspension. The Jets spent the 8th-most amount of money on their offensive line in 2017 but finished ranked just 26th in Pro Football Focus’s pass blocking efficiency and the run blocking was even worse with a 34% rush success rate (31st). Center Spencer Long, who dealt with injury issues in Washington, is the only new projected starter up-front and I expect New York’s ground game to struggle again, especially with Isaiah Crowell getting the bulk of the carries after finishing last in success rate among running backs with at least 200 attempts in 2017.

The Jets had the 3rd-best rush defense in our metrics last year, but they lose solid linebacker Demario Davis, who finished 11th in run stop percentage. However, New York signed Avery Williams, who finished 12th in run stop percentage among linebackers, to replace Davis and I expect the rush defense to be solid again in 2018 as run defense is more correlated year-to-year than pass defense. The Jets surrendered 6.4 yards per pass play last year while managing just a 4.8% sack rate (28th). New York didn’t add any significant players to their pass rush and Trumaine Johnson is the only new projected starter in the secondary, which isn’t likely to solve the problem unless he bounces back from a down year in which he surrendered 1.36 yards per cover snap (77th).

My ratings don’t show much value on either side (the model favors Detroit by 6.8 points), but New York applies to a 70-39-6 ATS week 1 contrary indicator and I’ll lean with the Jets plus the points based on that trend.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Lions

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.6 36.6
Succ Pass Plays 42.0% 44.2%
Sack Rate 8.6% 4.6%
Int Rate 2.2% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 21.6%
Big Pass Yards 39.6% 43.3%
NYPP 5.7 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 27.6 29.6
RB YPR 3.5 3.8
Stuff Rate 30.8% 27.8%
Succ Rush Plays 33.8% 40.4%
Big Rush Yards 44.6% 38.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.2

Game

All Snaps 62.2 66.3
Early Down Succ 41.3% 44.3%
Succ Rate 38.7% 42.6%
Big Yards Rate 44.5% 42.5%
Yards Per Play 4.8 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 27.5
Run Ratio 44.1% 44.1%
Starting Field Pos 27.5 28.5
Game Control -1.8 1.8

Points 18.6 23.9

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.6 37.9
Succ Pass Plays 45.5% 45.7%
Sack Rate 7.9% 5.7%
Int Rate 1.8% 3.2%
Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 20.7%
Big Pass Yards 45.2% 36.7%
NYPP 6.9 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 23.3 28.1
RB YPR 3.3 3.9
Stuff Rate 30.1% 20.4%
Succ Rush Plays 35.9% 47.1%
Big Rush Yards 40.9% 36.3%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.0

Game

All Snaps 61.8 65.9
Early Down Succ 43.9% 48.7%
Succ Rate 41.9% 45.8%
Big Yards Rate 45.5% 39.2%
Yards Per Play 5.5 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 27.5
Run Ratio 37.8% 42.1%
Starting Field Pos 30.0 27.6
Game Control -0.2 0.2

Points 25.6 23.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BUF	12 – 21 L	-3.8	37.5% / 43.3%	2.5% / 6.7%	5.1% / 3.6%	4.4 / 7.3	25.0% / 33.3%	31.3% / 24.4%	2.4 / 4.3	56 / 75	35.9% / 37.7%	33.9% / 37.3%	26.5% / 68.1%	3.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 60.0%	29.7 / 25.3
2	@OAK	20 – 45 L	-11.6	44.8% / 64.3%	13.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 8.2	61.5% / 40.7%	19.2% / 33.3%	4.9 / 6.7	55 / 55	53.7% / 48.8%	52.7% / 52.7%	43.0% / 56.1%	4.9 / 7.5	3.6% / 0.0%	47.3% / 49.1%	27.1 / 35.7
3	MIA	20 – 6 W	9.8	52.0% / 41.7%	8.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	9.3 / 4.1	37.1% / 46.7%	34.3% / 46.7%	3.0 / 2.0	60 / 63	48.9% / 54.2%	43.3% / 42.9%	40.1% / 11.6%	5.6 / 3.6	1.7% / 0.0%	58.3% / 23.8%	31.4 / 23.7
4	JAC	23 – 20 W	2.3	44.4% / 30.6%	13.9% / 2.8%	3.2% / 2.9%	6.0 / 3.8	31.3% / 57.5%	43.8% / 20.0%	8.0 / 4.4	68 / 76	37.3% / 50.8%	38.2% / 44.7%	68.6% / 27.6%	6.9 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	47.1% / 52.6%	29.5 / 27.0
5	@CLE	17 – 14 W	1.7	51.5% / 45.9%	9.1% / 2.7%	3.3% / 5.6%	5.4 / 7.5	19.0% / 45.5%	33.3% / 18.2%	1.8 / 4.2	54 / 70	45.9% / 46.3%	38.9% / 45.7%	32.1% / 40.1%	4.0 / 6.0	0.0% / 1.4%	38.9% / 47.1%	29.0 / 30.1
6	NE	17 – 24 L	0.1	54.0% / 39.5%	8.0% / 0.0%	4.3% / 2.6%	6.7 / 6.8	40.0% / 61.5%	24.0% / 7.7%	3.0 / 4.6	75 / 64	50.9% / 49.0%	49.3% / 48.4%	46.0% / 29.5%	5.5 / 5.9	1.3% / 1.6%	33.3% / 40.6%	24.0 / 28.7
7	@MIA	28 – 31 L	5.2	36.7% / 52.5%	10.0% / 7.5%	3.7% / 5.4%	6.0 / 7.6	34.8% / 24.0%	30.4% / 44.0%	4.0 / 2.1	53 / 65	37.5% / 42.3%	35.8% / 41.5%	61.9% / 53.8%	5.2 / 5.5	1.9% / 0.0%	43.4% / 38.5%	29.3 / 31.2
8	ATL	20 – 25 L	1.1	51.4% / 50.0%	8.6% / 3.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 8.2	22.7% / 37.5%	36.4% / 28.1%	2.0 / 4.4	57 / 62	41.5% / 45.8%	40.4% / 43.5%	40.1% / 53.1%	4.9 / 6.2	1.8% / 3.2%	38.6% / 51.6%	36.9 / 26.1
9	BUF	34 – 21 W	9.6	42.9% / 48.9%	4.8% / 14.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 5.2	38.6% / 27.3%	29.5% / 40.9%	4.5 / 2.9	65 / 69	43.5% / 42.3%	40.0% / 42.0%	55.4% / 31.6%	5.1 / 4.4	0.0% / 4.3%	67.7% / 31.9%	38.0 / 25.2
10	@TB	10 – 15 L	-3.4	28.9% / 40.0%	13.3% / 2.9%	2.6% / 2.9%	4.9 / 5.2	21.1% / 28.1%	42.1% / 28.1%	2.9 / 2.8	64 / 67	27.7% / 32.7%	26.6% / 34.3%	46.2% / 23.2%	4.3 / 4.1	1.6% / 0.0%	29.7% / 47.8%	19.0 / 36.0
12	CAR	27 – 35 L	-3.0	48.6% / 29.0%	8.1% / 9.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.6 / 5.0	38.5% / 39.4%	26.9% / 36.4%	4.2 / 4.4	63 / 64	46.9% / 36.7%	44.4% / 34.4%	54.5% / 50.5%	6.2 / 4.7	1.6% / 0.0%	41.3% / 51.6%	27.7 / 25.3
13	KC	38 – 31 W	-0.6	58.3% / 54.3%	0.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 10.3	43.1% / 54.5%	29.4% / 9.1%	3.1 / 10.2	87 / 46	46.8% / 59.5%	49.4% / 54.3%	40.8% / 74.5%	5.6 / 10.3	0.0% / 0.0%	58.6% / 23.9%	24.0 / 27.2
14	@DEN	0 – 23 L	-13.5	24.0% / 39.4%	16.0% / 6.1%	4.8% / 0.0%	1.6 / 5.7	33.3% / 25.0%	33.3% / 36.1%	2.5 / 2.4	49 / 69	33.3% / 28.6%	28.6% / 31.9%	11.9% / 26.3%	2.1 / 4.0	2.0% / 0.0%	49.0% / 52.2%	21.2 / 40.5
15	@NO	19 – 31 L	-6.4	30.0% / 50.0%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.1% / 2.8%	4.3 / 7.9	46.4% / 41.4%	14.3% / 20.7%	4.4 / 4.6	68 / 65	38.5% / 48.1%	36.8% / 46.2%	44.9% / 53.0%	4.3 / 6.4	0.0% / 3.1%	41.2% / 44.6%	25.9 / 31.3
16	LAC	7 – 14 L	-4.2	32.3% / 40.0%	9.7% / 0.0%	3.6% / 0.0%	3.2 / 7.3	33.3% / 40.0%	30.0% / 33.3%	6.6 / 3.0	61 / 70	37.0% / 41.8%	32.8% / 40.0%	48.5% / 48.0%	4.8 / 5.4	3.3% / 0.0%	49.2% / 42.9%	26.4 / 16.5
17	@NE	6 – 26 L	-12.4	35.0% / 38.1%	10.0% / 4.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 4.4	15.0% / 44.7%	35.0% / 18.4%	2.1 / 3.9	60 / 80	35.6% / 43.8%	28.3% / 41.3%	51.2% / 32.4%	4.1 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 47.5%	20.5 / 26.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARI	35 – 23 W	-2.7	47.6% / 42.9%	2.4% / 2.0%	2.4% / 6.3%	6.8 / 5.4	35.7% / 38.9%	21.4% / 16.7%	3.0 / 2.5	70 / 67	42.3% / 41.2%	42.9% / 41.8%	27.4% / 29.4%	5.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	40.0% / 26.9%	36.6 / 28.5
2	@NYG	24 – 10 W	7.5	33.3% / 37.8%	12.5% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	5.0 / 5.6	43.8% / 38.9%	34.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 3.4	56 / 55	37.5% / 41.5%	39.3% / 38.2%	42.4% / 30.0%	4.6 / 4.9	1.8% / 0.0%	57.1% / 32.7%	37.4 / 24.3
3	ATL	26 – 30 L	-6.3	40.4% / 48.6%	4.3% / 5.4%	0.0% / 8.6%	5.4 / 7.5	31.6% / 48.3%	26.3% / 13.8%	3.7 / 5.2	66 / 66	41.5% / 50.9%	37.9% / 48.5%	31.8% / 34.7%	4.9 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 43.9%	29.7 / 27.8
4	@MIN	14 – 7 W	2.8	40.5% / 40.6%	16.2% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.2	32.4% / 63.6%	29.4% / 9.1%	2.9 / 4.0	71 / 54	43.4% / 55.8%	36.6% / 50.0%	31.1% / 42.3%	3.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 5.6%	47.9% / 40.7%	30.0 / 25.2
5	CAR	24 – 27 L	-6.3	51.2% / 50.0%	14.6% / 8.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 9.3	40.0% / 17.6%	40.0% / 32.4%	3.3 / 0.9	56 / 70	52.4% / 37.0%	48.2% / 34.3%	53.7% / 53.7%	4.3 / 5.2	1.8% / 0.0%	26.8% / 48.6%	29.8 / 31.7
6	@NO	38 – 52 L	-15.8	35.1% / 45.2%	8.8% / 0.0%	5.8% / 6.5%	4.9 / 6.0	15.8% / 45.9%	36.8% / 13.5%	3.5 / 5.2	76 / 68	24.6% / 50.9%	30.3% / 45.6%	53.3% / 51.7%	4.6 / 5.6	2.6% / 1.5%	25.0% / 54.4%	27.6 / 29.4
8	PIT	15 – 20 L	-1.9	48.9% / 41.9%	4.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.7 / 10.2	50.0% / 41.9%	27.3% / 22.6%	3.2 / 2.5	69 / 62	58.2% / 41.9%	49.3% / 41.9%	58.1% / 53.2%	7.0 / 6.4	1.4% / 1.6%	31.9% / 50.0%	22.8 / 24.8
9	@GB	30 – 17 W	9.8	64.7% / 43.9%	2.9% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.4 / 5.7	24.2% / 70.6%	45.5% / 11.8%	1.9 / 4.6	67 / 58	40.7% / 59.6%	44.8% / 51.7%	43.2% / 25.4%	6.2 / 5.4	1.5% / 0.0%	49.3% / 29.3%	32.5 / 25.8
10	CLE	38 – 24 W	0.7	36.7% / 29.5%	13.3% / 9.1%	3.8% / 2.5%	8.0 / 4.8	42.9% / 60.6%	28.6% / 30.3%	5.0 / 6.1	51 / 77	41.7% / 41.4%	39.2% / 42.9%	73.8% / 48.9%	6.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.3%	41.2% / 42.9%	28.8 / 28.4
11	@CHI	27 – 24 W	-0.0	52.9% / 48.4%	8.8% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.7	40.0% / 60.0%	40.0% / 13.3%	2.6 / 7.4	59 / 61	53.2% / 56.9%	47.5% / 54.1%	39.4% / 45.5%	6.0 / 6.5	1.7% / 1.6%	42.4% / 49.2%	24.0 / 23.9
12	MIN	23 – 30 L	-9.0	34.2% / 59.4%	7.9% / 6.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.2 / 8.5	46.7% / 35.6%	20.0% / 31.1%	3.5 / 3.1	53 / 77	41.5% / 50.9%	37.7% / 45.5%	47.4% / 50.4%	5.5 / 5.3	1.9% / 0.0%	28.3% / 58.4%	29.2 / 32.1
13	@BAL	20 – 44 L	-9.9	48.6% / 55.6%	8.1% / 0.0%	5.9% / 0.0%	7.9 / 7.5	20.8% / 46.4%	37.5% / 28.6%	3.3 / 3.6	61 / 64	39.6% / 56.0%	37.7% / 51.6%	60.8% / 38.8%	6.1 / 5.8	1.6% / 0.0%	39.3% / 43.8%	23.2 / 36.6
14	@TB	24 – 21 W	4.8	61.4% / 58.5%	0.0% / 7.3%	4.5% / 5.3%	8.7 / 6.5	33.3% / 62.1%	38.9% / 13.8%	2.9 / 4.6	62 / 70	54.9% / 63.3%	53.2% / 60.0%	34.8% / 25.4%	7.0 / 5.7	1.6% / 4.3%	29.0% / 41.4%	30.4 / 22.2
15	CHI	20 – 10 W	10.6	43.2% / 45.8%	10.8% / 4.2%	0.0% / 6.5%	5.5 / 6.4	38.1% / 46.7%	4.8% / 33.3%	4.4 / 2.9	58 / 63	41.9% / 48.0%	41.4% / 46.0%	27.9% / 16.6%	5.1 / 5.5	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 23.8%	28.0 / 23.9
16	@CIN	17 – 26 L	1.2	37.8% / 50.0%	5.4% / 6.8%	2.9% / 2.4%	5.1 / 5.0	54.5% / 36.1%	18.2% / 16.7%	4.0 / 4.0	59 / 80	45.2% / 45.2%	44.1% / 43.8%	42.0% / 33.6%	4.7 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 45.0%	31.0 / 30.8
17	GB	35 – 11 W	11.1	51.6% / 33.3%	6.5% / 11.1%	0.0% / 6.3%	9.8 / 4.3	25.0% / 40.7%	33.3% / 11.1%	2.2 / 3.8	55 / 63	43.9% / 38.3%	40.0% / 36.5%	60.8% / 46.9%	6.5 / 4.1	0.0% / 3.2%	43.6% / 42.9%	38.2 / 26.3

New York Jets @

Detroit Lions

Mon, Sep 10

4:10 PM Pacific

Game Analysis