Game Analysis

Lean – DALLAS (-9) over NY Jets

· Well, we can scrap much of the work that went into setting the New York’s prior after Aaron Rodgers went down 4 snaps into the 2023 season.  The Jets hovered around 2 points worse than average in market last season when Zach Wilson was the starter. I do think they have slightly improved this year.

· New York’s defense was giving significant snaps to Lamarcus Joyner last year, who ranked 56th among qualifying safeties in PFF coverage grade. Tony Adams and Adrain Amos will certainly be better for the Jets at the safety position in 2023.

· New York’s defense upgraded on DT Sheldon Rankins with Quinton Jefferson, who had nearly twice as many pressures last season as Rankins.

· Offensively, the Jets have to be slightly better than last season with another year of experience for Wilson and a healthy right tackle in Mekhi Becton.

· Although, New York’s offensive line ranked 31st in pass-blocking efficiency during week 1 and it’s not looking any better for the protection this week. The Cowboys had a 62% pressure rate last Sunday night, the 4th-highest by any defense in the last four years. Dallas got to Daniel Jones in an average of only 2.41 seconds/attempt, the fastest in the NFL.

· Wilson’s security blanket WR Garrett Wilson will likely be locked up. Wilson gained 0.72 EPA/target in week 1 (14th), but Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs ranked 10th in coverage grade by PFF last week and he’s not afraid to jump a route if Wilson isn’t extremely accurate with the football.

· New York’s interior pass rush is nasty so Dallas will be hoping to get starting LG Tyler Smith back in uniform. Jets DT Quinton Jefferson ranked 2nd in week 1 pass rushing efficiency and Quinnen Williams had 5 pressures (5th).

· New York’s defense is not going to move top cornerbacks Sauce Gardner or DJ Reed inside so I could see Dak Prescott using a ton of quick game to inside WR CeeDee Lamb, who averaged 2.43 yards per slot route run last season (4th).

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 10.9 points, with a predicted total of 40.9 points.