Game Analysis

Lean – NY Jets (+7.5) over CLEVELAND

· The Browns are 3-1 in Joe Flacco’s starts with three consecutive wins heading into tonight. Flacco is averaging a very good 6.9 yppp after throwing for 368 yards last week.

· Cleveland WR Amari Cooper set a franchise record with 265 yards against the Texans. Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner is allowing just 0.50 yards per cover snap (2nd) but he doesn’t shadow wide receivers and I expect Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski to put Cooper across from opposite cornerback DJ Reed if Cooper’s heal injury allows him to suit up on Thursday night.

· New York interior defender Quinnen Williams ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be contained by All-Pro LG Joel Bitonio.

· The Jets led the NFL last week with a 90% pass play rate adjusted for the situation with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, but this will not continue versus a Browns defense allowing a league-low 0.19 EPA/dropback.

· Siemian will not have clean pockets to work from with Browns’ pass rushers in the backfield all night. New York LT Mekhi Becton ranks 51st in pass-blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying tackles and he will line up across from edge rusher Myles Garrett, who has 77 pressures (6th).

· Cleveland edge defender Za’Darius Smith ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency will go against rookie RT Carter Warren, who has surrendered 4 sacks in 4 games.

· Jets RB Breece Hall is averaging 0.07 EPA/target (4th) but Siemian will not be able to slow down this Browns pass rush with screens as Cleveland’s defense is conceding a league-low 29% pass success rate to running backs.

· Our model favors the Browns by 4.9 points, with a predicted total of 37.7 points, and we Lean with the Jets based on the line value. The matchups strongly favor the Under and I think the true total is 35 points with all things considered.