New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – CLEVELAND (pick) over New York Jets

The Browns were blown out at home last week and fell to 27th in my team ratings using just this season’s stats. Cleveland has been particularly poor in the passing game ranking 29th on both offense and defense. Despite New York’s bleak preseason expectations and their 0-2 start, the Jets have rallied to win two games in a row to get back to .500. New York had to wait until the last minute of overtime to beat Jacksonville, but the game shouldn’t have been that close. The Jets outgained the Jaguars by 2.7 yards per play and would’ve won in regulation had it not been for a New York 4th quarter fumble in the Redzone that Jacksonville returned for a touchdown. This makes two straight weeks the Jets have looked great at home and they’ve been surprisingly good throwing the ball – ranking above the league average at 6.7 yppp.

New York has been better than Cleveland so far this season but these teams are due for a reversal of fortunes and the line has already gone from Cleveland -2 down to pick. New York applies to a 19-52-2 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off consecutive upset wins and Cleveland qualifies in one of my favorite contrary situations. The Browns are 0-4 straight-up, just 1-3 ATS and are coming off a humiliating 7-31 home loss. Backing a team like that doesn’t sound like a good idea. However, it actually is. Since 1980 (as far back as my database goes), teams with a losing spread record that are on a losing streak and lost last week by 20 points or more are 200-117-4 ATS against a non-division opponent (a divisional opponent would be more likely to get fired up for a struggling rival). That’s an incredible situation for so few parameters and it speaks to the concept that the team in the NFL that is hardest to bet is usually the team that you should be betting on. Nobody wants to bet on Cleveland, which is why there is line value.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Browns

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.5 35.5
Succ Pass Plays 44.7% 45.0%
Sack Rate 9.5% 3.9%
Int Rate 2.1% 2.7%
Deep Pass Rate 11.7% 16.8%
Big Pass Yards 44.5% 37.4%
NYPP 6.2 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 27.3 31.8
RB YPR 4.5 3.9
Stuff Rate 32.1% 31.1%
Succ Rush Plays 38.7% 44.6%
Big Rush Yards 41.7% 42.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.3

Game

All Snaps 59.8 67.3
Early Down Succ 43.9% 47.9%
Succ Rate 42.1% 44.4%
Big Yards Rate 44.5% 40.8%
Yards Per Play 5.3 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.8 27.7
Run Ratio 45.3% 46.4%
Starting Field Pos 29.4 27.9
Game Control -0.8 0.8

Points 18.8 23.0

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.5 33.3
Succ Pass Plays 34.8% 47.5%
Sack Rate 8.1% 7.1%
Int Rate 5.4% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 25.1% 10.1%
Big Pass Yards 53.9% 44.0%
NYPP 5.0 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 21.0 31.3
RB YPR 3.5 2.6
Stuff Rate 23.5% 26.9%
Succ Rush Plays 43.1% 29.8%
Big Rush Yards 37.1% 45.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 2.8

Game

All Snaps 64.5 64.5
Early Down Succ 38.4% 40.7%
Succ Rate 37.1% 39.5%
Big Yards Rate 49.8% 45.6%
Yards Per Play 4.6 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.4 30.5
Run Ratio 32.6% 48.4%
Starting Field Pos 26.5 28.1
Game Control -10.2 10.2

Points 15.8 26.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BUF	12 – 21 L	-3.8	37.5% / 43.3%	2.5% / 6.7%	5.1% / 3.6%	4.4 / 7.3	25.0% / 33.3%	31.3% / 24.4%	2.4 / 4.3	56 / 75	35.9% / 37.7%	33.9% / 37.3%	26.5% / 68.1%	3.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 60.0%	29.7 / 25.3
2	@OAK	20 – 45 L	-11.6	44.8% / 64.3%	13.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 8.2	61.5% / 40.7%	19.2% / 33.3%	4.9 / 6.7	55 / 55	53.7% / 48.8%	52.7% / 52.7%	43.0% / 56.1%	4.9 / 7.5	3.6% / 0.0%	47.3% / 49.1%	27.1 / 35.7
3	MIA	20 – 6 W	9.8	52.0% / 41.7%	8.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	9.3 / 4.1	37.1% / 46.7%	34.3% / 46.7%	3.0 / 2.0	60 / 63	48.9% / 54.2%	43.3% / 42.9%	40.1% / 11.6%	5.6 / 3.6	1.7% / 0.0%	58.3% / 23.8%	31.4 / 23.7
4	JAC	23 – 20 W	2.3	44.4% / 30.6%	13.9% / 2.8%	3.2% / 2.9%	6.0 / 3.8	31.3% / 57.5%	43.8% / 20.0%	8.0 / 4.4	68 / 76	37.3% / 50.8%	38.2% / 44.7%	68.6% / 27.6%	6.9 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	47.1% / 52.6%	29.5 / 27.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	18 – 21 L	-5.8	43.2% / 45.9%	18.9% / 2.7%	3.3% / 2.8%	4.9 / 6.9	36.0% / 16.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	2.3 / 1.5	62 / 62	41.7% / 41.0%	40.3% / 33.9%	45.1% / 35.2%	3.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	28.6 / 20.8
2	@BAL	10 – 24 L	-9.4	31.1% / 50.0%	6.7% / 5.6%	9.5% / 2.9%	6.5 / 5.6	38.1% / 36.4%	23.8% / 27.3%	4.4 / 4.2	66 / 69	36.5% / 47.3%	33.3% / 43.5%	67.1% / 39.9%	5.8 / 4.9	1.5% / 1.4%	31.8% / 47.8%	22.3 / 33.9
3	@IND	28 – 31 L	-9.2	35.4% / 33.3%	2.1% / 11.1%	6.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 9.0	57.1% / 27.0%	19.0% / 37.8%	5.3 / 2.5	69 / 64	42.9% / 24.4%	42.0% / 29.7%	53.8% / 63.7%	5.0 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.6%	30.4% / 57.8%	28.9 / 29.6
4	CIN	7 – 31 L	-16.5	29.5% / 60.6%	4.5% / 9.1%	2.4% / 0.0%	3.9 / 8.0	41.2% / 40.0%	35.3% / 26.7%	2.6 / 2.9	61 / 63	32.6% / 50.0%	32.8% / 50.8%	33.0% / 43.4%	3.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.6%	27.9% / 47.6%	26.4 / 28.3

New York Jets @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Oct 8

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis