New York Jets @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Rotation: 119

Odds: Buffalo Bills PK, Total: 37

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Jets (pick) over BUFFALO

The Bills are locked into the 5-seed in the AFC and have no incentive to play their starters. The Jets apply to a 90-35-1 ATS week 17 situation and the market tends to under-adjust for teams sitting their starters.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Bills

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.7 38.6
Succ Pass Plays 39.8% 45.3%
Sack Rate 9.3% 5.7%
Int Rate 3.3% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 21.0% 15.8%
Big Pass Yards 37.4% 39.0%
NYPP 5.6 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 23.8 26.5
RB YPR 3.3 3.0
Stuff Rate 23.8% 32.6%
Succ Rush Plays 39.4% 35.4%
Big Rush Yards 24.9% 37.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.2

Game

All Snaps 59.5 65.1
Early Down Succ 42.9% 42.5%
Succ Rate 39.1% 41.2%
Big Yards Rate 35.0% 39.8%
Yards Per Play 4.5 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.9
Run Ratio 40.0% 40.6%
Starting Field Pos 26.6 31.6
Game Control -3.1 3.1

Points 17.5 23.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BUF	16 – 17 L	7.1	42.2% / 55.3%	8.9% / 2.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	3.4 / 6.4	52.4% / 48.0%	33.3% / 20.0%	3.2 / 5.1	66 / 63	46.8% / 54.9%	45.5% / 52.4%	9.9% / 50.0%	3.4 / 5.9	1.5% / 3.2%	31.8% / 39.7%	28.4 / 22.9
2	CLE	3 – 23 L	-12.5	25.7% / 34.2%	11.4% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.8 / 8.0	41.7% / 28.6%	37.5% / 38.1%	3.9 / 3.3	59 / 59	39.5% / 33.3%	32.2% / 32.2%	42.4% / 74.4%	4.4 / 6.4	1.7% / 0.0%	40.7% / 35.6%	18.0 / 33.6
3	@NE	14 – 30 L	-17.6	22.2% / 54.3%	18.5% / 2.2%	4.5% / 2.2%	2.6 / 6.8	20.0% / 33.3%	30.0% / 14.8%	1.8 / 2.5	47 / 73	29.4% / 50.0%	21.3% / 46.6%	21.9% / 35.7%	2.2 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.4%	42.6% / 37.0%	18.2 / 40.3
5	@PHI	6 – 31 L	-16.1	25.0% / 43.3%	27.8% / 3.3%	7.7% / 0.0%	1.7 / 6.0	42.1% / 34.5%	26.3% / 34.5%	3.5 / 2.9	55 / 59	35.0% / 42.9%	30.9% / 39.0%	25.0% / 44.2%	2.3 / 4.5	1.8% / 1.7%	34.5% / 49.2%	27.1 / 35.2
6	DAL	24 – 22 W	7.9	55.9% / 56.1%	5.9% / 2.4%	3.1% / 0.0%	9.6 / 6.6	30.0% / 47.1%	10.0% / 23.5%	2.8 / 3.8	54 / 75	54.8% / 50.9%	46.3% / 52.0%	56.8% / 22.1%	7.1 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 45.3%	25.3 / 26.7
7	NE	0 – 33 L	-19.6	18.2% / 48.9%	3.0% / 0.0%	12.5% / 2.2%	2.2 / 5.5	50.0% / 38.2%	20.0% / 47.1%	4.1 / 2.2	53 / 79	35.0% / 45.0%	30.2% / 44.3%	32.5% / 38.1%	2.9 / 4.1	3.8% / 0.0%	37.7% / 43.0%	24.3 / 37.4
8	@JAC	15 – 29 L	-8.5	44.7% / 50.0%	21.1% / 5.6%	10.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 7.7	46.7% / 17.6%	26.7% / 44.1%	3.1 / 3.3	53 / 70	51.2% / 32.0%	45.3% / 34.3%	39.0% / 55.3%	4.0 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.4%	28.3% / 48.6%	26.5 / 36.9
9	@MIA	18 – 26 L	-4.5	50.0% / 50.0%	7.1% / 10.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 6.7	42.9% / 33.3%	23.8% / 37.5%	4.0 / 2.1	63 / 64	50.0% / 44.0%	47.6% / 43.8%	26.8% / 23.4%	5.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 37.5%	30.7 / 31.2
10	NYG	34 – 27 W	4.1	46.9% / 32.6%	6.3% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.6	27.6% / 17.6%	31.0% / 64.7%	2.6 / 1.4	61 / 63	39.1% / 20.9%	37.7% / 28.6%	44.9% / 58.4%	4.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 3.2%	47.5% / 27.0%	29.7 / 25.9
11	@WAS	34 – 17 W	14.5	51.5% / 34.1%	6.1% / 14.6%	3.2% / 2.9%	8.6 / 4.2	45.5% / 45.0%	24.2% / 35.0%	3.5 / 2.7	66 / 61	51.0% / 38.6%	48.5% / 37.7%	43.0% / 57.8%	6.1 / 3.7	1.5% / 0.0%	50.0% / 32.8%	35.3 / 34.6
12	OAK	34 – 3 W	14.7	56.7% / 34.3%	3.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	10.4 / 4.0	43.3% / 31.8%	26.7% / 36.4%	2.9 / 3.1	60 / 57	53.2% / 35.0%	50.0% / 33.3%	60.3% / 12.5%	6.7 / 3.6	1.7% / 1.8%	50.0% / 38.6%	27.6 / 26.5
13	@CIN	6 – 22 L	-7.8	36.5% / 44.7%	7.7% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.0 / 6.1	41.2% / 36.0%	11.8% / 24.0%	3.6 / 1.8	69 / 63	38.8% / 45.7%	37.7% / 41.3%	14.8% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	24.6% / 39.7%	17.8 / 36.1
14	MIA	22 – 21 W	2.4	45.9% / 48.7%	2.7% / 5.1%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.1 / 6.2	37.5% / 42.3%	21.9% / 19.2%	3.5 / 4.7	69 / 65	45.3% / 50.0%	42.0% / 46.2%	30.2% / 36.2%	5.4 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	46.4% / 40.0%	30.0 / 27.7
15	@BAL	21 – 42 L	-15.2	36.4% / 56.0%	3.0% / 4.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.5	45.8% / 50.0%	8.3% / 17.6%	4.3 / 6.4	57 / 59	41.5% / 57.1%	40.4% / 52.5%	44.8% / 56.7%	5.4 / 7.3	1.8% / 0.0%	42.1% / 57.6%	33.6 / 29.5
16	PIT	16 – 10 W	4.9	39.3% / 36.6%	7.1% / 9.8%	0.0% / 5.4%	6.2 / 4.5	25.0% / 28.0%	25.0% / 32.0%	2.7 / 3.0	60 / 66	32.6% / 37.3%	31.7% / 33.3%	33.2% / 31.9%	4.3 / 3.9	1.7% / 0.0%	53.3% / 37.9%	27.0 / 29.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYJ	17 – 16 W	-7.1	55.3% / 42.2%	2.6% / 8.9%	5.4% / 0.0%	6.4 / 3.4	48.0% / 52.4%	20.0% / 33.3%	5.1 / 3.2	63 / 66	54.9% / 46.8%	52.4% / 45.5%	50.0% / 9.9%	5.9 / 3.4	3.2% / 1.5%	39.7% / 31.8%	22.9 / 28.4
2	@NYG	28 – 14 W	8.9	42.4% / 45.7%	9.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	7.2 / 5.2	58.8% / 70.0%	17.6% / 5.0%	4.4 / 6.5	67 / 66	55.8% / 59.6%	50.7% / 53.0%	32.7% / 38.9%	5.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 30.3%	24.8 / 28.5
3	CIN	21 – 17 W	6.7	45.9% / 44.7%	2.7% / 5.3%	2.8% / 5.6%	6.5 / 6.3	55.6% / 36.8%	19.4% / 31.6%	4.9 / 3.5	73 / 57	55.2% / 46.7%	50.7% / 42.1%	40.6% / 52.9%	5.7 / 5.4	1.4% / 3.5%	49.3% / 33.3%	29.6 / 30.5
4	NE	10 – 16 L	-7.9	36.7% / 20.5%	10.2% / 0.0%	9.1% / 2.6%	4.9 / 3.8	50.0% / 47.8%	13.6% / 17.4%	6.1 / 3.2	71 / 62	47.3% / 33.3%	40.8% / 30.6%	46.9% / 32.1%	5.3 / 3.6	0.0% / 0.0%	31.0% / 37.1%	29.9 / 27.1
5	@TEN	14 – 7 W	2.4	47.2% / 40.7%	11.1% / 18.5%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.6	55.6% / 40.7%	14.8% / 25.9%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 54	58.7% / 45.0%	50.8% / 40.7%	34.5% / 52.0%	5.0 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	42.9% / 50.0%	30.0 / 23.3
7	MIA	31 – 21 W	0.6	50.0% / 55.6%	7.1% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.7 / 7.6	52.2% / 50.0%	13.0% / 33.3%	5.1 / 3.6	51 / 66	55.0% / 52.0%	51.0% / 53.0%	61.3% / 45.9%	6.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.5%	45.1% / 45.5%	30.2 / 25.5
8	PHI	13 – 31 L	-5.2	31.6% / 48.1%	10.5% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.1 / 5.7	50.0% / 48.8%	35.0% / 29.3%	4.9 / 5.3	58 / 68	39.0% / 50.0%	37.9% / 48.5%	44.3% / 57.7%	4.4 / 5.5	1.7% / 1.5%	34.5% / 60.3%	29.4 / 36.4
9	WAS	24 – 9 W	8.5	45.5% / 34.6%	9.1% / 15.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.5	53.8% / 34.8%	17.9% / 30.4%	3.1 / 5.5	61 / 49	54.5% / 40.5%	50.8% / 34.7%	48.9% / 42.8%	4.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	63.9% / 46.9%	34.9 / 27.3
10	@CLE	16 – 19 L	-2.5	42.9% / 47.5%	2.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 5.5	40.0% / 53.8%	15.0% / 30.8%	4.2 / 5.7	62 / 66	46.8% / 53.8%	41.9% / 50.0%	42.4% / 32.1%	5.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 39.4%	24.5 / 24.8
11	@MIA	37 – 20 W	10.6	51.5% / 36.5%	0.0% / 13.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 5.4	38.2% / 30.8%	20.6% / 46.2%	4.9 / 1.8	67 / 65	47.1% / 38.3%	44.8% / 35.4%	41.5% / 38.0%	6.3 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.5%	50.7% / 20.0%	29.2 / 28.2
12	DEN	20 – 3 W	7.9	42.3% / 17.2%	3.8% / 13.8%	4.0% / 4.0%	6.9 / 1.7	44.7% / 58.8%	21.3% / 11.8%	5.2 / 5.0	73 / 46	43.6% / 37.1%	43.8% / 32.6%	52.8% / 41.8%	5.8 / 2.9	0.0% / 0.0%	64.4% / 37.0%	32.4 / 23.3
13	@DAL	26 – 15 W	4.9	51.7% / 50.9%	13.8% / 7.5%	0.0% / 2.0%	8.0 / 6.1	44.1% / 36.8%	32.4% / 21.1%	3.6 / 5.4	63 / 72	47.8% / 46.4%	47.6% / 47.2%	44.7% / 33.6%	5.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.4%	54.0% / 26.4%	33.1 / 23.5
14	BAL	17 – 24 L	-6.7	20.0% / 46.2%	13.3% / 3.8%	0.0% / 4.0%	2.3 / 5.3	43.5% / 54.5%	26.1% / 12.1%	4.5 / 3.6	68 / 59	30.0% / 58.7%	27.9% / 50.8%	54.1% / 33.9%	3.1 / 4.4	1.5% / 0.0%	33.8% / 55.9%	26.4 / 31.6
15	@PIT	17 – 10 W	1.7	42.3% / 35.7%	3.8% / 9.5%	4.0% / 10.5%	5.0 / 4.2	50.0% / 46.7%	26.3% / 40.0%	3.4 / 3.4	64 / 57	47.9% / 39.5%	46.9% / 38.6%	42.9% / 55.5%	4.1 / 4.0	1.6% / 1.8%	59.4% / 26.3%	29.4 / 31.1
16	@NE	17 – 24 L	-1.0	36.7% / 54.5%	13.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 8.2	43.5% / 54.3%	17.4% / 14.3%	4.0 / 4.1	53 / 68	45.0% / 58.0%	39.6% / 54.4%	70.1% / 33.6%	5.1 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	43.4% / 51.5%	31.6 / 24.6

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