New York Jets @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Dec 9
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 115
Odds: Buffalo Bills -3.5, Total: 38

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Jets (+3.5) over BUFFALO

This game features two rookie quarterbacks selected in the top 10 last May. Sam Darnold will return from injury after missing the last 3 games and he will have a tough matchup versus the Bills 9th-rated pass defense led by second-year cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is holding opposing receivers to an NFL-low 0.46 yards per cover snap. Darnold hasn’t shown the maturity needed to perform in enemy territory in the NFL gaining just 5.0 yards per pass play on the road compared to 6.7 yards per pass play at home. I do not expect the 21-year-old quarterback to have his best stuff in his first game back.

We saw with Mitch Trubisky out the last couple weeks how the market doesn’t fully account for the added dimension a quarterback with scrambling ability can bring to an offense and Josh Allen is another great example in Buffalo. Allen has 234 rushing yards in the last 2 games since coming back from injury and now ranks 4th in the NFL with 24.3 points added on the ground, behind only Todd Gurley, Philip Lindsay, and Trubisky. Allen ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks with just 4.9 yards per pass play, but the value he adds with his legs gives this Bills offense a boost they didn’t have with Nathan Peterman, Derek Anderson, or Matt Barkley under center. Buffalo did release Kelvin Benjamin after trading 3rd and 7th-round picks for him last year, but I don’t think it will make an impact on their offensive production. Benjamin was gaining just 1.13 yards per route run, which ranked 4th-worst among players with at least 50 targets.

Our model favors the Bills by just 2 points but the line is about right with Darnold’s trend of playing worse on the road. However, the Jets apply to a 110-39-5 ATS road underdog situation and the road dog is generally the side to be on in games involving two bad teams. I’ll lean with the Jets.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Bills
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.6 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.7% 45.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.4% 6.3%
  • Int Rate 4.8% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 17.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.0% 40.6%
  • NYPP 6.4 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.8 29.7
  • RB YPR 3.7 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 30.5% 24.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.3% 43.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.3% 46.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 60.5 66.5
  • Early Down Succ 42.2% 48.3%
  • Succ Rate 39.5% 45.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.5% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 28.2
  • Run Ratio 44.5% 44.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.0 29.6
  • Game Control -2.0 2.0
 
  • Points 20.8 25.4
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