Game Analysis
Lean – NY Jets (+3.5) over BUFFALO
This game features two rookie quarterbacks selected in the top 10 last May. Sam Darnold will return from injury after missing the last 3 games and he will have a tough matchup versus the Bills 9th-rated pass defense led by second-year cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is holding opposing receivers to an NFL-low 0.46 yards per cover snap. Darnold hasn’t shown the maturity needed to perform in enemy territory in the NFL gaining just 5.0 yards per pass play on the road compared to 6.7 yards per pass play at home. I do not expect the 21-year-old quarterback to have his best stuff in his first game back.
We saw with Mitch Trubisky out the last couple weeks how the market doesn’t fully account for the added dimension a quarterback with scrambling ability can bring to an offense and Josh Allen is another great example in Buffalo. Allen has 234 rushing yards in the last 2 games since coming back from injury and now ranks 4th in the NFL with 24.3 points added on the ground, behind only Todd Gurley, Philip Lindsay, and Trubisky. Allen ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks with just 4.9 yards per pass play, but the value he adds with his legs gives this Bills offense a boost they didn’t have with Nathan Peterman, Derek Anderson, or Matt Barkley under center. Buffalo did release Kelvin Benjamin after trading 3rd and 7th-round picks for him last year, but I don’t think it will make an impact on their offensive production. Benjamin was gaining just 1.13 yards per route run, which ranked 4th-worst among players with at least 50 targets.
Our model favors the Bills by just 2 points but the line is about right with Darnold’s trend of playing worse on the road. However, the Jets apply to a 110-39-5 ATS road underdog situation and the road dog is generally the side to be on in games involving two bad teams. I’ll lean with the Jets.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
45.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
4.8%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.5%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.0%
40.6%
-
NYPP
6.4
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
29.7
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
30.5%
24.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.3%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
42.2%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
39.5%
45.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.5%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
29.6
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.5
32.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.6%
49.6%
-
Sack Rate
8.5%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
5.0%
3.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
27.1%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.4%
30.3%
-
NYPP
5.4
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.6
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
30.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.0%
40.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.3%
52.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.1
60.1
-
Early Down Succ
41.4%
48.6%
-
Succ Rate
39.4%
45.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.1%
37.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
29.3
-
Run Ratio
47.3%
46.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
32.8
-
Game Control
-3.7
3.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% /
44.2% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
9.6% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
32.6% /
37.5% |
9.3% /
25.0% |
4.0 /
2.5 |
66 /
68 |
53.8% /
51.0% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
55.1% /
37.9% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
65.2% /
23.5% |
40.7 /
23.0 |
| 2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% /
44.4% |
6.8% /
14.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
26.3% /
52.9% |
36.8% /
26.5% |
2.2 /
4.1 |
63 /
61 |
39.6% /
55.8% |
38.1% /
49.2% |
50.3% /
36.2% |
5.7 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
3.3% |
30.2% /
55.7% |
24.1 /
34.4 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% /
36.6% |
6.1% /
9.8% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
43.3% /
31.4% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
63 /
76 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
42.9% /
39.5% |
22.4% /
32.3% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
46.1% |
23.2 /
33.3 |
| 4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% /
57.5% |
8.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.9 /
9.4 |
28.6% /
38.2% |
35.7% /
20.6% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
51 /
74 |
35.1% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
48.6% |
23.6% /
50.5% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
27.5% /
45.9% |
29.8 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% /
71.8% |
9.1% /
10.3% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
17.2 /
8.8 |
46.2% /
47.1% |
17.9% /
47.1% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
50 /
56 |
42.6% /
56.1% |
52.0% /
64.3% |
74.5% /
42.2% |
10.3 /
7.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
78.0% /
30.4% |
28.8 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% /
46.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
7.0% |
8.6 /
7.0 |
23.1% /
60.9% |
28.2% /
17.4% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
70 /
66 |
48.0% /
54.7% |
42.9% /
51.5% |
41.9% /
32.5% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
55.7% /
34.8% |
40.5 /
32.7 |
| 7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
34.1% |
6.7% /
2.4% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
37.5% /
24.0% |
33.3% /
44.0% |
3.0 /
3.6 |
69 /
66 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
50.2% /
58.0% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
37.9% |
27.3 /
41.4 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% /
45.2% |
3.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.0 |
20.8% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
14.7% |
2.4 /
5.3 |
54 /
65 |
30.8% /
51.9% |
29.6% /
49.2% |
20.3% /
46.3% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
52.3% |
22.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% /
42.9% |
9.3% /
14.3% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
38.1% /
24.1% |
28.6% /
24.1% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
64 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
35.9% /
33.3% |
41.8% /
15.3% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
50.9% |
18.4 /
32.4 |
| 10 |
BUF |
10 – 41 L |
-20.8 |
37.8% /
48.1% |
8.1% /
3.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
8.9 |
55.6% /
47.9% |
38.9% /
18.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
55 /
75 |
52.5% /
49.1% |
43.6% /
48.0% |
37.2% /
53.0% |
3.6 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
64.0% |
28.5 /
36.8 |
| 12 |
NE |
13 – 27 L |
-3.1 |
39.1% /
48.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
9.1 |
53.3% /
59.5% |
20.0% /
16.2% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
61 /
68 |
43.5% /
58.5% |
42.6% /
54.4% |
28.4% /
57.7% |
5.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.6% /
54.4% |
27.1 /
16.8 |
| 13 |
@TEN |
22 – 26 L |
8.4 |
40.6% /
36.8% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
3.9 /
7.2 |
42.4% /
34.8% |
33.3% /
17.4% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
65 /
61 |
46.0% /
43.8% |
41.5% /
36.1% |
28.9% /
69.6% |
4.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
37.7% |
32.3 /
25.3 |
| 14 |
@BUF |
27 – 23 W |
-4.8 |
48.0% /
37.5% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
5.4% |
6.8 /
4.8 |
30.0% /
45.2% |
33.3% /
19.4% |
2.7 /
5.7 |
55 /
71 |
37.8% /
38.6% |
38.2% /
40.8% |
38.4% /
39.4% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
54.5% /
43.7% |
47.1 /
27.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
3 – 47 L |
-25.9 |
20.5% /
42.5% |
15.4% /
5.0% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
6.3 |
22.7% /
44.1% |
31.8% /
29.4% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
61 /
74 |
24.4% /
43.3% |
21.3% /
43.2% |
39.9% /
43.1% |
2.5 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
36.1% /
45.9% |
30.5 /
41.3 |
| 2 |
LAC |
20 – 31 L |
-14.5 |
36.8% /
65.5% |
13.2% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.3 |
54.5% /
33.3% |
31.8% /
40.7% |
3.8 /
4.1 |
60 /
56 |
45.7% /
55.6% |
43.3% /
50.0% |
59.0% /
44.0% |
4.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
48.2% |
26.7 /
36.5 |
| 3 |
@MIN |
27 – 6 W |
22.0 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
12.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
42.1% /
16.7% |
23.7% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
63 /
65 |
42.9% /
48.0% |
41.3% /
44.6% |
42.1% /
3.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
60.3% /
9.2% |
40.2 /
17.7 |
| 4 |
@GB |
0 – 22 L |
-12.8 |
27.5% /
47.6% |
17.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
2.5% |
2.2 /
6.7 |
43.8% /
56.3% |
25.0% /
37.5% |
3.6 /
4.4 |
56 /
74 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
32.1% /
51.4% |
31.0% /
49.6% |
2.6 /
5.7 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
43.2% |
27.3 /
27.4 |
| 5 |
TEN |
13 – 12 W |
2.6 |
63.6% /
81.3% |
9.1% /
12.5% |
10.0% /
7.1% |
7.2 /
7.6 |
46.5% /
56.0% |
20.9% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.0 |
54 /
41 |
43.8% /
51.2% |
50.0% /
65.9% |
18.8% /
29.0% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
4.9% |
79.6% /
61.0% |
34.8 /
30.2 |
| 6 |
@HOU |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
29.0% /
27.3% |
6.5% /
21.2% |
6.9% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
40.7% /
36.0% |
22.2% /
28.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
58 /
58 |
32.6% /
34.9% |
34.5% /
31.0% |
46.3% /
34.1% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
1.7% /
1.7% |
46.6% /
43.1% |
28.2 /
36.5 |
| 7 |
@IND |
5 – 37 L |
-16.0 |
39.4% /
56.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
43.9% |
31.8% /
14.6% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
55 /
64 |
48.9% /
53.5% |
43.6% /
48.4% |
39.9% /
53.2% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
64.1% |
22.8 /
36.3 |
| 8 |
NE |
6 – 25 L |
-6.6 |
36.4% /
54.3% |
6.8% /
4.3% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
33.3% |
35.0% /
18.5% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
64 /
73 |
43.5% /
52.7% |
37.5% /
46.6% |
46.4% /
35.7% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
37.0% |
29.3 /
28.2 |
| 9 |
CHI |
9 – 41 L |
-18.7 |
35.8% /
42.9% |
7.5% /
4.8% |
6.1% /
5.0% |
3.2 /
6.0 |
28.6% /
39.3% |
42.9% /
28.6% |
3.5 /
2.4 |
81 /
49 |
33.3% /
51.5% |
33.3% /
40.8% |
39.4% /
39.4% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
57.1% |
25.9 /
43.9 |
| 10 |
@NYJ |
41 – 10 W |
20.8 |
48.1% /
37.8% |
3.7% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
8.9 /
3.1 |
47.9% /
55.6% |
18.8% /
38.9% |
4.5 /
4.6 |
75 /
55 |
49.1% /
52.5% |
48.0% /
43.6% |
53.0% /
37.2% |
6.0 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.0% /
32.7% |
36.8 /
28.5 |
| 12 |
JAC |
24 – 21 W |
4.4 |
36.8% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
8.4 /
4.1 |
45.9% /
53.8% |
16.2% /
23.1% |
4.6 /
5.8 |
56 /
65 |
52.4% /
51.9% |
42.9% /
49.2% |
50.5% /
62.8% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
60.0% |
31.5 /
24.6 |
| 13 |
@MIA |
17 – 21 L |
-4.1 |
37.1% /
51.9% |
5.7% /
11.1% |
6.1% /
4.2% |
6.2 /
4.3 |
51.6% /
28.0% |
22.6% /
40.0% |
6.4 /
2.5 |
66 /
52 |
46.2% /
48.7% |
43.9% /
40.4% |
68.0% /
16.9% |
6.3 /
3.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.0% /
48.1% |
23.4 /
28.6 |
| 14 |
NYJ |
23 – 27 L |
4.8 |
37.5% /
48.0% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
5.4% /
4.0% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
45.2% /
30.0% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
5.7 /
2.7 |
71 /
55 |
38.6% /
37.8% |
40.8% /
38.2% |
39.4% /
38.4% |
5.2 /
4.5 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.7% /
54.5% |
27.2 /
47.1 |
New York Jets
@ 
Buffalo Bills