New York Jets
@ 
Buffalo Bills
Game Analysis
The Ryan coaching contingent and the Buffalo D have a common reputation of being stout and exotic, but last year, it did not work out well (for either brother). The Bills woefully low adjusted sack rate caused a trickle down effect across the D. In addition to not getting pressure on the the QB, BUF could not stop the run either, causing the lowest amount of negative run plays leaguewide. While last week was a low scoring affair for Buffalo, their D was buoyed by a low starting field position for the Ravens.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets continue to have one of the strongest run D’s in the league, but were susceptible to the deep ball last week, giving up almost 70% of the yardage through explosive plays. And while Run D is important, pass defense correlates much more strongly with points scored.
After taking into account how Thursday’s have typically gone Under, the BUF/NYJ game still shows value through our early season Totals model and we will make BUF/NYJ OVER 40.5 (-110) a 1* Best Bet. The model leans slightly with Buffalo +1.
More Best Bets will be added by Friday at 10 am Pacific. Make sure to log in tomorrow to view the rest of this weekend’s NFL Best Bets.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Jets
- Bills
Pass
- Pass Plays 36.0 37.0
- Succ Pass Plays 36.1% 48.6%
- Sack Rate 2.8% 18.9%
- Int Rate 2.9% 3.3%
- Deep Pass Rate 17.6% 16.7%
- Big Pass Yards 36.7% 73.8%
- NYPP 5.2 8.8
Rush
- Rush Plays 30.0 19.0
- RB YPR 5.3 3.0
- Stuff Rate 16.7% 26.3%
- Succ Rush Plays 56.7% 42.1%
- Big Rush Yards 45.4% 39.7%
- Yards Per Rush 5.1 3.1
Game
- All Snaps 66.0 56.0
- Early Down Succ 48.1% 52.3%
- Succ Rate 45.5% 46.4%
- Big Yards Rate 40.6% 68.6%
- Yards Per Play 5.2 6.8
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
- Time Per Play (sec) 31.8 26.8
- Run Ratio 45.5% 33.9%
- Starting Field Pos 33.5 26.2
- Dominance Rating 1.8 -1.8
- Points 22.0 23.0