New York Jets @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: Atlanta Falcons -3, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Note: The Over has moved out of Strong Opinion range but I still lean over at 46.

Strong Opinion – Over (45) – Atlanta vs NY Jets

Lean – Atlanta (-3)

Matt Ryan has a 2.68-second time to throw this year with new play caller Arthur Smith, compared to 2.87 last season, and he will need to continue getting the ball out quickly in this matchup. Falcons C Matt Hennessy ranks 26th out of 32 qualifying centers in pass blocking efficiency and rookie LG Jalen Mayfield ranks 54th out of 59 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency. Jets’ DT Quinnen Williams leads all interior defenders with 3.5 sacks and he should be putting pressure on Ryan throughout the game. Atlanta is targeting running backs on 29% of passes (2nd) and the Jets have surrendered 288 receiving yards to RBs (31st) so expect Cordarrelle Patterson (10.7 yards per target) and Mike Davis to be very productive in the pass game.

Falcons RT Jake Matthews is conceding just 1.2 pressures per game (6th) and should limit edge defender John Franklin-Myers, who ranks 13th in pass rushing efficiency.

Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett will be a problem for Jets RG Greg Van Roten, who ranks 58th out of 59 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency. However, Zach Wilson should have success underneath when he gets the ball out fast. New York inside WR Jamison Crowder saw nine targets and averaged 2.18 yards per route run in his season debut last week. Atlanta nickelback Isaiah Oliver was carted off the field in the second quarter last Sunday and will miss the rest of the season. Backup nickelback Avery Williams surrendered 1.76 yards per cover snap in the slot and will struggle to contain Crowder.

This game will take place in London with around slightly better than average scoring conditions and our model favors the Falcons by 2.4 points after adjusting down for Ridley and Gage being out for Atlanta. The predicted total of 48.1 points and the Over was a Strong Opinion at 45 points or less but is just a lean under at 46 or 45.5 points. I also lean with Atlanta, as 1-3 teams off a loss are 75-35-4 ATS after a loss against a team coming off a win.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Falcons


  • Pass Plays 38.8 38.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 38.3% 45.1%
  • Sack Rate 10.0% 7.9%
  • Int Rate 5.9% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.7% 17.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 47.8% 42.9%
  • NYPP 6.0 6.9


  • Rush Plays 21.5 31.3
  • RB YPR 3.4 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 23.0% 26.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.2% 48.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.3% 48.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.1


  • All Snaps 60.3 69.3
  • Early Down Succ 45.4% 51.2%
  • Succ Rate 41.4% 45.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.7% 45.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.1 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 29.9
  • Run Ratio 35.0% 45.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -7.9 7.9
  • Points 11.8 23.5
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