Game Analysis
Lean – WASHINGTON (+3.5) over NY Giants
Lean – Under (41)
Mark Sanchez will be under center again for the Redskins after gaining just 3.8 yards per pass play last week in Philadelphia. Our metrics suggest Sanchez is a 4.3-point downgrade, but we’re going to take away an additional point because he just got into the building a couple weeks ago and will be using a limited playbook. To make matter worse for Sanchez in his first start, Washington guard Tony Bergstrom suffered a high ankle sprain against the Eagles, which means the Redskins have now lost both starting guards, Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao, and both backup guards, Jonathan Cooper and Bergstrom.
Safety Landon Collins is out for the Giants, but he was having a down year by his standards. The former All-Pro ranks 54th out of 58 qualifying safeties in yards allowed per cover snap and having Collins off the field may actually improve New York’s pass defense against a Redskins offense targeting tight ends at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. Still, Collins’ 7.6% run stop rate ranks 2nd and the Giants rush defense will suffer after already taking a blow with the mid-season trade of run-stuffing DT Damon Harrison. Washington’s ground game ranks slightly above average, but I expect them to rely on Adrian Peterson heavily in this matchup with so much adversity across the rest of the offense. The Redskins should have success running the ball and more running usually leads to lower scoring games.
Eli Manning is averaging just 4.1 yards per pass play in 3 meetings versus the Redskins since Greg Manusky took over as defensive coordinator at the start of last season and I don’t expect the Giants to get much going offensively. Our model makes New York a 3.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.8. While our model is pretty much in line with the market I’m going to lean with Washington and the under based on the situation. Washington applies to a 30-3-2 ATS late-season home underdog situation and this game applies to a 708-509-16 divisional game under angle.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.9
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.1%
49.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.7%
5.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
3.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
16.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.8%
44.8%
-
NYPP
7.0
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.2
28.6
-
RB YPR
4.7
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
27.7%
23.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.5%
45.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.6%
46.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
60.2
63.5
-
Early Down Succ
44.3%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
43.6%
47.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.3%
46.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
30.0
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
45.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
27.9
-
Game Control
0.0
-0.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.2
35.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
86.7%
98.4%
-
Sack Rate
14.6%
14.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
15.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.7%
43.5%
-
NYPP
12.0
12.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.2
26.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
17.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.4%
37.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
58.4
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
46.6%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
52.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.5
31.6
-
Run Ratio
45.9%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
26.6
-
Game Control
-1.8
1.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
JAC |
15 – 20 L |
-3.9 |
28.2% / 44.1% |
5.1% / 2.9% |
2.7% / 3.0% |
5.4 / 4.9 |
34.8% / 36.7% |
30.4% / 16.7% |
5.0 / 4.6 |
62 / 64 |
31.9% / 46.8% |
30.6% / 40.6% |
38.0% / 38.8% |
5.2 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
37.1% / 46.9% |
25.3 / 31.5 |
2 |
@DAL |
13 – 20 L |
-10.5 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
12.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 6.4 |
47.1% / 59.3% |
35.3% / 14.8% |
2.1 / 5.2 |
67 / 52 |
33.3% / 56.8% |
38.8% / 48.1% |
18.4% / 48.3% |
3.8 / 5.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
25.4% / 51.9% |
27.9 / 27.6 |
3 |
@HOU |
27 – 22 W |
7.6 |
60.6% / 53.7% |
12.1% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
8.0 / 9.0 |
32.1% / 42.1% |
25.0% / 36.8% |
4.1 / 3.1 |
61 / 60 |
47.8% / 50.0% |
47.5% / 50.0% |
41.3% / 53.4% |
6.2 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
45.9% / 31.7% |
22.2 / 28.9 |
4 |
NO |
18 – 33 L |
-3.5 |
56.8% / 42.9% |
6.8% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 48.6% |
18.8% / 8.6% |
4.1 / 4.9 |
60 / 70 |
58.3% / 51.0% |
55.0% / 45.7% |
29.3% / 55.4% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
26.7% / 50.0% |
22.5 / 33.9 |
5 |
@CAR |
31 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
75.0% / 76.2% |
4.2% / 4.8% |
8.7% / 10.0% |
15.9 / 11.0 |
25.0% / 40.6% |
43.8% / 28.1% |
3.1 / 3.7 |
40 / 53 |
46.7% / 47.1% |
55.0% / 54.7% |
59.3% / 52.7% |
10.8 / 6.6 |
2.5% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 60.4% |
30.5 / 28.5 |
6 |
PHI |
13 – 34 L |
-14.8 |
34.0% / 48.6% |
8.5% / 2.7% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 7.3 |
52.9% / 51.6% |
17.6% / 16.1% |
8.6 / 3.5 |
64 / 68 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
39.1% / 50.0% |
58.4% / 32.7% |
6.3 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
26.6% / 45.6% |
25.5 / 31.4 |
7 |
@ATL |
20 – 23 L |
-4.5 |
50.0% / 57.1% |
9.5% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 8.5 |
35.0% / 33.3% |
40.0% / 33.3% |
3.1 / 3.2 |
62 / 63 |
46.9% / 50.0% |
45.2% / 49.2% |
60.3% / 42.2% |
7.0 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
32.3% / 33.3% |
22.4 / 19.7 |
8 |
WAS |
13 – 20 L |
-6.0 |
32.1% / 46.9% |
13.2% / 0.0% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
35.7% / 50.0% |
42.9% / 23.5% |
2.6 / 5.4 |
67 / 66 |
34.7% / 53.1% |
32.8% / 48.5% |
46.9% / 42.1% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
20.9% / 51.5% |
27.2 / 26.4 |
10 |
@SF |
27 – 23 W |
-1.5 |
43.8% / 43.2% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
5.6 / 6.8 |
34.8% / 44.8% |
30.4% / 17.2% |
4.2 / 4.3 |
55 / 66 |
39.5% / 39.6% |
40.0% / 43.9% |
53.8% / 24.3% |
5.0 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 43.9% |
34.5 / 25.7 |
11 |
TB |
38 – 35 W |
10.5 |
54.5% / 55.3% |
18.2% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 10.8% |
8.9 / 9.4 |
59.4% / 56.7% |
9.4% / 20.0% |
5.1 / 5.0 |
54 / 68 |
62.8% / 54.4% |
57.4% / 55.9% |
59.4% / 55.5% |
6.7 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
59.3% / 44.1% |
28.5 / 24.6 |
12 |
@PHI |
22 – 25 L |
6.0 |
48.7% / 51.6% |
5.1% / 9.7% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 6.9 |
44.4% / 40.0% |
27.8% / 26.7% |
7.0 / 4.3 |
57 / 61 |
48.9% / 51.1% |
47.4% / 45.9% |
48.3% / 42.4% |
7.1 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.6% / 49.2% |
23.9 / 31.1 |
13 |
CHI |
30 – 27 W |
4.0 |
41.0% / 44.4% |
7.7% / 11.1% |
2.8% / 5.0% |
5.1 / 5.7 |
31.0% / 37.5% |
27.6% / 34.4% |
4.9 / 3.7 |
68 / 77 |
34.7% / 45.6% |
36.8% / 41.6% |
42.9% / 50.3% |
5.0 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
42.6% / 41.6% |
31.4 / 25.1 |
14 |
@WAS |
40 – 16 W |
22.0 |
37.9% / 37.1% |
6.9% / 14.3% |
3.7% / 10.0% |
6.0 / 5.8 |
44.4% / 45.5% |
11.1% / 27.3% |
6.3 / 3.8 |
65 / 57 |
46.9% / 46.7% |
41.5% / 40.4% |
59.3% / 65.3% |
6.2 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.4% / 38.6% |
29.6 / 27.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@ARI |
24 – 6 W |
13.7 |
600.0% / 700.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
82.3 / 72.5 |
46.5% / 56.3% |
25.6% / 12.5% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
46 / 18 |
50.0% / 53.7% |
82.6% / 127.8% |
47.0% / 35.0% |
9.3 / 11.9 |
2.2% / 5.6% |
93.5% / 88.9% |
18.0 / 29.3 |
2 |
IND |
9 – 21 L |
-8.3 |
48.9% / 43.8% |
6.4% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
40.9% / 40.0% |
40.9% / 13.3% |
3.0 / 3.5 |
69 / 62 |
50.0% / 40.5% |
46.4% / 41.9% |
28.1% / 25.4% |
4.8 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 48.4% |
29.3 / 24.7 |
3 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
12.0 |
50.0% / 34.7% |
0.0% / 8.2% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
11.0 / 4.9 |
32.4% / 64.7% |
10.8% / 11.8% |
4.5 / 5.9 |
57 / 66 |
40.5% / 42.9% |
38.6% / 42.4% |
60.1% / 35.9% |
6.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
64.9% / 25.8% |
30.8 / 26.4 |
5 |
@NO |
19 – 43 L |
-15.4 |
69.2% / 71.4% |
11.5% / 7.1% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 12.5 |
50.0% / 36.1% |
27.8% / 5.6% |
2.2 / 2.8 |
44 / 64 |
48.8% / 54.9% |
61.4% / 51.6% |
51.2% / 54.3% |
6.4 / 7.0 |
2.3% / 1.6% |
40.9% / 56.3% |
33.4 / 36.2 |
6 |
CAR |
23 – 17 W |
9.4 |
35.9% / 53.7% |
7.7% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
4.0 / 6.6 |
51.7% / 47.4% |
10.3% / 26.3% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
68 / 60 |
43.8% / 58.3% |
42.6% / 51.7% |
36.3% / 25.9% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
42.6% / 31.7% |
33.7 / 20.3 |
7 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
4.7 |
42.3% / 41.0% |
3.8% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.4 |
40.6% / 54.5% |
40.6% / 27.3% |
4.1 / 3.3 |
58 / 61 |
46.7% / 48.9% |
41.4% / 45.9% |
46.6% / 45.8% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
55.2% / 36.1% |
33.4 / 21.4 |
8 |
@NYG |
20 – 13 W |
6.0 |
46.9% / 32.1% |
0.0% / 13.2% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
23.5% / 42.9% |
5.4 / 2.6 |
66 / 67 |
53.1% / 34.7% |
48.5% / 32.8% |
42.1% / 46.9% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 20.9% |
26.4 / 27.2 |
9 |
ATL |
14 – 38 L |
-12.7 |
44.9% / 45.0% |
6.1% / 5.0% |
2.2% / 2.6% |
5.9 / 8.4 |
53.3% / 62.5% |
33.3% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.4 |
64 / 64 |
46.9% / 45.1% |
46.9% / 51.6% |
36.6% / 54.4% |
5.7 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.4% / 37.5% |
23.8 / 22.7 |
10 |
@TB |
16 – 3 W |
4.7 |
40.0% / 62.8% |
10.0% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
5.7 / 9.3 |
56.0% / 45.8% |
32.0% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
55 / 67 |
50.0% / 56.1% |
47.3% / 56.7% |
39.9% / 36.5% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
45.5% / 35.8% |
29.7 / 19.0 |
11 |
HOU |
21 – 23 L |
-4.8 |
35.7% / 51.9% |
11.9% / 11.1% |
5.4% / 8.3% |
3.7 / 6.7 |
58.6% / 40.6% |
13.8% / 18.8% |
4.3 / 4.4 |
71 / 59 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
45.1% / 45.8% |
19.4% / 44.2% |
3.9 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
40.8% / 54.2% |
34.4 / 31.8 |
12 |
@DAL |
23 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% / 45.7% |
7.3% / 11.4% |
7.9% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
42.9% / 41.7% |
14.3% / 16.7% |
3.9 / 4.1 |
62 / 71 |
53.1% / 48.1% |
48.4% / 43.7% |
34.9% / 50.5% |
5.4 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 50.7% |
32.1 / 26.9 |
13 |
@PHI |
13 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
25.0% / 59.0% |
10.7% / 0.0% |
4.0% / 2.6% |
4.7 / 7.8 |
35.7% / 32.4% |
42.9% / 18.9% |
7.4 / 3.6 |
42 / 76 |
31.3% / 50.9% |
28.6% / 46.1% |
60.4% / 41.1% |
5.6 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 48.7% |
23.0 / 30.0 |
14 |
NYG |
16 – 40 L |
-22.0 |
37.1% / 37.9% |
14.3% / 6.9% |
10.0% / 3.7% |
5.8 / 6.0 |
45.5% / 44.4% |
27.3% / 11.1% |
3.8 / 6.3 |
57 / 65 |
46.7% / 46.9% |
40.4% / 41.5% |
65.3% / 59.3% |
5.1 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 55.4% |
27.6 / 29.6 |