New York Giants @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Dec 9
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 121
Odds: Washington Redskins +3.5, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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Lean – WASHINGTON (+3.5) over NY Giants

Lean – Under (41)

Mark Sanchez will be under center again for the Redskins after gaining just 3.8 yards per pass play last week in Philadelphia. Our metrics suggest Sanchez is a 4.3-point downgrade, but we’re going to take away an additional point because he just got into the building a couple weeks ago and will be using a limited playbook. To make matter worse for Sanchez in his first start, Washington guard Tony Bergstrom suffered a high ankle sprain against the Eagles, which means the Redskins have now lost both starting guards, Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao, and both backup guards, Jonathan Cooper and Bergstrom.

Safety Landon Collins is out for the Giants, but he was having a down year by his standards. The former All-Pro ranks 54th out of 58 qualifying safeties in yards allowed per cover snap and having Collins off the field may actually improve New York’s pass defense against a Redskins offense targeting tight ends at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. Still, Collins’ 7.6% run stop rate ranks 2nd and the Giants rush defense will suffer after already taking a blow with the mid-season trade of run-stuffing DT Damon Harrison. Washington’s ground game ranks slightly above average, but I expect them to rely on Adrian Peterson heavily in this matchup with so much adversity across the rest of the offense. The Redskins should have success running the ball and more running usually leads to lower scoring games.

Eli Manning is averaging just 4.1 yards per pass play in 3 meetings versus the Redskins since Greg Manusky took over as defensive coordinator at the start of last season and I don’t expect the Giants to get much going offensively. Our model makes New York a 3.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.8. While our model is pretty much in line with the market I’m going to lean with Washington and the under based on the situation. Washington applies to a 30-3-2 ATS late-season home underdog situation and this game applies to a 708-509-16 divisional game under angle.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Redskins


  • Pass Plays 37.9 34.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.1% 49.0%
  • Sack Rate 8.7% 5.0%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 3.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.6% 16.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.8% 44.8%
  • NYPP 7.0 7.2


  • Rush Plays 22.2 28.6
  • RB YPR 4.7 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 27.7% 23.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 40.5% 45.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 53.6% 46.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.2


  • All Snaps 60.2 63.5
  • Early Down Succ 44.3% 49.2%
  • Succ Rate 43.6% 47.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 47.3% 46.4%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 30.0
  • Run Ratio 37.3% 45.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.0 27.9
  • Game Control 0.0 -0.0
  • Points 23.6 25.5
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