Game Analysis
Lean – New York Giants (+7) over WASHINGTON
Lean – Under (44.5) (Strong Opinion Under 45 or higher)
Washington running back Chris Thompson will miss the rest of the season, which hurts the Redskins more than missing a typical running back would. Thompson has been responsible for 22% of Washington’s total yardage this season and is one of the most dangerous pass-catching running backs in the league. Rushing production is easier to replace than receiving production of running backs, as we have seen with Arizona losing David Johnson. Thompson’s 9.4 yards per target is extremely high for a running back and he is a large part of the Redskins 8th-ranked passing offense (2nd in receiving yards on the team) and Kirk Cousins will need to find other targets on Sunday that most likely will not be as efficient.
The Giants offense failed to reach 5 yards per play on Sunday for the fourth time in five games without their top two receivers, Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall. Filling in for the injured Justin Pugh, backup right tackle Chad Wheeler will have his hands full going up against Ryan Kerrigan. Wheeler allowed 4 hurries in 37 pass blocks in his first start lined up against Justin Houston last week and his ability to protect Eli Manning may be pivotal in this game.
Still, there are reasons to believe the Giants offense could be effective. New York’s rushing offense ranks 16th since the Beckham and Marshall injuries and they have a nice matchup against a Redskins rush defense ranked 28th in my metrics. Furthermore, the Redskins have surrendered the second most receiving yards to opposing tight ends and Evan Engram, averaging almost 8 targets per game, should have good success.
Our model was on both of these teams last week (Best Bet on Washington and Strong Opinion on the Giants) and part of the reason I liked the Giants is because I thought they’d want to prove that they haven’t quit. With this game being nationally televised I certainly expect the Giants to play with pride once again and if New York plays to their potential then they are likely to stay within a touchdown. I’ll lean with the Giants at +7 or more and our model also likes the Under. In fact, you can consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 45 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
36.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.9%
45.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
3.8%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.6%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.3%
45.0%
-
NYPP
5.5
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
31.5
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
21.4%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.5%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.2%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
68.1
-
Early Down Succ
45.3%
46.4%
-
Succ Rate
42.2%
44.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.8%
47.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.3
28.7
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
47.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
30.2
-
Game Control
-3.6
3.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.4%
46.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.2%
21.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.2%
46.6%
-
NYPP
7.2
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.9
26.9
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
21.4%
21.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.5%
50.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.6%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
63.9
63.2
-
Early Down Succ
49.8%
50.3%
-
Succ Rate
46.7%
47.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.8%
46.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.1
-
Run Ratio
41.9%
42.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
30.1
-
Game Control
1.7
-1.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DAL |
3 – 19 L |
-9.1 |
48.8% / 48.7% |
7.3% / 2.6% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 6.7 |
23.1% / 54.8% |
7.7% / 19.4% |
2.8 / 4.2 |
54 / 70 |
46.2% / 50.9% |
42.6% / 51.4% |
27.8% / 37.0% |
4.3 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
24.1% / 44.3% |
16.0 / 29.4 |
2 |
DET |
10 – 24 L |
-7.5 |
37.8% / 33.3% |
13.5% / 12.5% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
38.9% / 43.8% |
27.8% / 34.4% |
3.4 / 4.3 |
55 / 56 |
41.5% / 37.5% |
38.2% / 39.3% |
30.0% / 42.4% |
4.9 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
32.7% / 57.1% |
24.3 / 37.4 |
3 |
@PHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
59.6% / 41.2% |
0.0% / 8.8% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 4.7 |
23.5% / 48.7% |
23.5% / 23.1% |
2.9 / 5.0 |
64 / 73 |
55.8% / 47.3% |
50.0% / 45.2% |
23.4% / 30.4% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
26.6% / 53.4% |
34.6 / 21.5 |
4 |
@TB |
23 – 25 L |
-5.2 |
49.0% / 48.7% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 8.3 |
35.7% / 42.3% |
28.6% / 19.2% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
77 / 65 |
44.1% / 56.3% |
44.2% / 46.2% |
27.4% / 57.3% |
4.9 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.4% / 40.0% |
27.7 / 29.9 |
5 |
LAC |
22 – 27 L |
2.4 |
34.1% / 36.4% |
12.2% / 0.0% |
2.8% / 2.3% |
4.5 / 5.9 |
72.0% / 31.3% |
12.0% / 21.9% |
6.1 / 3.9 |
66 / 76 |
54.0% / 34.0% |
48.5% / 34.2% |
46.3% / 36.2% |
5.1 / 5.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
37.9% / 42.1% |
28.2 / 29.0 |
6 |
@DEN |
23 – 10 W |
10.4 |
40.9% / 35.1% |
13.6% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.4 / 6.4 |
18.8% / 44.4% |
40.6% / 11.1% |
4.6 / 2.6 |
54 / 75 |
27.5% / 40.0% |
27.8% / 37.3% |
53.4% / 47.0% |
4.9 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
59.3% / 24.0% |
31.2 / 27.0 |
7 |
SEA |
7 – 24 L |
-1.0 |
22.5% / 50.0% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.3 / 8.0 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 21.9% |
2.7 / 3.3 |
57 / 72 |
31.8% / 53.6% |
28.1% / 50.0% |
14.1% / 43.9% |
3.1 / 5.9 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
29.8% / 44.4% |
22.8 / 33.8 |
9 |
LA |
17 – 51 L |
-19.5 |
42.5% / 54.5% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 14.1 |
59.3% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 40.0% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
67 / 62 |
51.0% / 44.7% |
49.3% / 43.5% |
38.1% / 71.3% |
4.8 / 7.6 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 64.5% |
27.0 / 40.8 |
10 |
@SF |
21 – 31 L |
-4.9 |
55.0% / 60.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.0% |
6.5 / 11.5 |
52.2% / 41.7% |
21.7% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
63 / 61 |
56.5% / 51.2% |
54.0% / 49.2% |
35.6% / 67.7% |
5.9 / 7.8 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
36.5% / 59.0% |
26.6 / 31.9 |
11 |
KC |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
38.9% / 42.9% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
2.8% / 7.3% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
40.0% / 51.7% |
22.9% / 10.3% |
3.2 / 4.6 |
71 / 71 |
45.1% / 49.2% |
39.4% / 46.5% |
22.0% / 41.6% |
4.5 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 40.8% |
30.2 / 21.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PHI |
17 – 30 L |
-5.1 |
38.6% / 51.2% |
9.1% / 4.9% |
2.5% / 2.6% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
58.8% / 36.0% |
23.5% / 28.0% |
3.8 / 2.4 |
61 / 66 |
49.0% / 44.0% |
44.3% / 45.5% |
38.3% / 37.8% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
4.9% / 1.5% |
27.9% / 37.9% |
26.1 / 31.8 |
2 |
@LA |
27 – 20 W |
4.5 |
48.3% / 39.3% |
6.9% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.4 / 8.6 |
46.2% / 59.1% |
17.9% / 13.6% |
5.9 / 4.2 |
68 / 50 |
49.1% / 51.4% |
47.1% / 48.0% |
46.2% / 61.9% |
5.7 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
57.4% / 44.0% |
34.5 / 22.4 |
3 |
OAK |
27 – 10 W |
11.9 |
61.3% / 37.1% |
3.2% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
11.5 / 2.7 |
35.3% / 21.4% |
17.6% / 21.4% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
65 / 49 |
48.0% / 42.4% |
47.7% / 32.7% |
53.2% / 24.8% |
7.3 / 2.6 |
3.1% / 2.0% |
52.3% / 28.6% |
28.7 / 31.7 |
4 |
@KC |
20 – 29 L |
4.3 |
45.8% / 47.5% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 6.5 |
51.9% / 58.1% |
14.8% / 19.4% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
51 / 71 |
54.1% / 51.7% |
49.0% / 52.1% |
57.2% / 43.4% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
52.9% / 43.7% |
26.8 / 21.2 |
6 |
SF |
26 – 24 W |
7.0 |
60.5% / 30.0% |
2.6% / 6.0% |
2.7% / 2.1% |
8.6 / 5.0 |
38.2% / 65.0% |
29.4% / 25.0% |
2.8 / 4.3 |
72 / 70 |
51.8% / 41.2% |
50.0% / 40.0% |
43.6% / 50.4% |
5.8 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.2% / 28.6% |
26.9 / 32.6 |
7 |
@PHI |
24 – 34 L |
-4.7 |
56.8% / 53.6% |
9.1% / 10.7% |
2.5% / 4.0% |
6.1 / 8.7 |
47.4% / 29.4% |
15.8% / 23.5% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
63 / 62 |
62.5% / 39.6% |
54.0% / 40.3% |
46.4% / 63.4% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 54.8% |
27.7 / 32.5 |
8 |
DAL |
19 – 33 L |
-2.5 |
39.5% / 37.5% |
9.3% / 8.3% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 61.5% |
26.7% / 20.5% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
58 / 63 |
40.9% / 57.4% |
39.7% / 52.4% |
50.5% / 24.1% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
3.4% / 1.6% |
25.9% / 61.9% |
29.7 / 39.1 |
9 |
@SEA |
17 – 14 W |
2.3 |
40.5% / 43.5% |
16.2% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
5.2 / 6.3 |
39.1% / 57.1% |
34.8% / 14.3% |
2.2 / 5.3 |
60 / 74 |
42.6% / 51.7% |
40.0% / 48.6% |
51.6% / 48.5% |
4.1 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 37.8% |
27.8 / 30.7 |
10 |
MIN |
30 – 38 L |
-6.2 |
45.7% / 65.5% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 6.9% |
6.8 / 10.5 |
46.4% / 51.5% |
21.4% / 30.3% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
74 / 62 |
49.1% / 60.9% |
45.9% / 58.1% |
43.0% / 52.2% |
5.3 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.8% / 53.2% |
34.1 / 34.6 |
11 |
@NO |
31 – 34 L |
5.7 |
47.1% / 57.1% |
5.9% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
8.8 / 8.9 |
51.5% / 60.9% |
12.1% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 7.0 |
67 / 65 |
50.9% / 62.3% |
49.3% / 58.5% |
47.8% / 54.2% |
6.8 / 8.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 35.4% |
23.4 / 24.3 |