Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NY Giants (+10.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

· More talented teams usually have the advantage on a short week due to scheme playing less of a role, but we think this price is too expensive for San Francisco even after factoring in the smaller amount of coaching prep for this game.

· The Giants closed as 8-point underdogs to the Eagles in the playoffs last season and I don’t think you can make the case this 49ers squad is significantly better than Philadelphia last January.

· Furthermore, New York has improved the roster since January adding Darren Waller, whose 1.81 yards per route run ranks 2nd among tight ends. The Giants also brought in LB Bobby Okereke, who ranks 5th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Saquon Barkley suffered a right ankle sprain when he landed in a pile last week and he will not be on the field on Thursday night. Barkley averaged a league-low -0.16 EPA/target in 2022. The Giants had a 48% pass success rate last season compared to a 41% rush success rate. Backup RB Matt Breida has averaged 4.8 ypr in his career on 523 runs, which is better than Barkley’s 4.4 ypr career average. Barkley’s absence does not make much of a difference for New York’s offense.

· To be clear, I’m not saying all running backs don’t matter. We are adjusting Cleveland’s offense for the loss of Nick Chubb. Barkley just isn’t above replacement level after gaining just 2.78 yards after contact in 2022, which ranked 8th-worst just in the league.

· Daniel Jones had a career-high 229 passing yards come off of play action last week and he will continue using run fakes to slow down San Francisco’s pass rush.

· San Francisco’s offense will not be firing on full cylinders this week. Kyle Shanahan was quoted, “We definitely got to get Elijah in there more and do better with our rotation [at RB]”. The 49ers know they need to be playing the long game with Christian McCaffrey which will hurt the efficiency in the short term. Shanahan will not want to overextend McCaffrey on a short week as a large favorite and I think he’ll only get about 15 touches after averaging 24 in the first two weeks.

· San Francisco WR Brandon Aiyuk sustained a left shoulder injury last week and he might be on a snap count as well if he is able to suit up. Aiyuk is averaging 1.45 EPA/target this year and any pas splays without him will hamper Brock Purdy’s passing game.

· There has been an overreaction to New York’s 0-40 opening week loss and last week’s narrow win over a bad Cardinals team and week 3 underdogs are 46-17 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their first 2 games by an average of more than 13 points (19-3 ATS since 2011). Our model favors the 49ers by just 6.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.0 points.

New York is a 1-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.