Game Analysis

Lean – NY Giants (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND

Lean – Over (46)

• Jaxson Dart will likely be back on the field this week – along with Giants starting CB Paulson Adebo and starting S Tyler Nubin.
• New York’s defense is conceding a 46% success rate to opposing tight ends (4th), and they will contain TE Hunter Henry, who is averaging 0.36 EPA/target (6th).
• However, the Giants have a 41% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest), and they will struggle against Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels if interim defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen sticks with man.
• McDaniels loves stacked and bunch formations that create natural rubs and free releases against man coverage. New England’s offense ranks 3rd relatively against man-coverage compared to zone.
• Patriots’ starting LG Jared Wilson also has a high ankle sprain and is week-to-week, while starting LT Will Campbell has an MCL sprain and is out for a few weeks at least. Campbell is allowing a 5.9% pressure rate compared to backup LT Vederian Lowe, who surrendered a 7.1% pressure rate last season. Campbell is worth 0.5 points by our numbers.
• New England’s defense will again be without interior defender Milton Williams, who ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Our model favors New England by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, but the Patriots do apply to an 83-38-1 ATS Monday night home angle. I still used NYG +7.5 in my spread pool.