Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (-4.5) over NY Giants

• The weather is going to be a major factor in this game with nearly 40 mph gusts and possible snow. I believe the conditions favor Chicago.
• The Bears averaged 2.6 yards before contact per carry on designed runs last week and had 283 yards on the ground against the Bengals. Ben Johnson will run the ball against a Giants defense allowing a league-high 0.15 EPA/rush.
• Caleb Williams has a favorable matchup when he does need to pass, averaging 18% more yards per attempt against man coverage compared to zone, and New York’s defense leads the NFL with a 42% man-coverage rate.
• The Giants will likely be without starting CB Paulsen Adebo, and Williams targets wide receivers on 66.3% of passes (6th-most). Williams will pick on backup CB Deonte Banks in coverage. Banks is surrendering 0.14 more yards per cover snap than Adebo.
• New York starting LB Micah McFadden is sidelined, and backup Darius Muasau left midway through the second quarter last week and did not return. It will likely be third-string LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles in coverage versus Chicago TE Colston Loveland, who averaged 16.9 yards per target last game.
• Jaxson Dart will not have time if RT Jermaine Eluemunor is unable to suit up. Eluemunor is conceding a only 2.6% pressure rate but missed last week and did not practice on Wednesday. Backup RT Marcus Mbow is surrendering an 11.8% pressure rate.
• Our model favors the Bears by 6.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.9 points.