New York Giants @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Oct 7
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Carolina Panthers -7, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – CAROLINA (-7/-6.5) over NY Giants

The Panthers have played without 3 starters on the offensive line for most of the season and rank 25th in pass blocking efficiency. However, their ground game is seemingly unaffected as they rank 3rd in rushing. Guard Trai Turner should return this week, but they will again be without both starting tackles, which could be a problem as DE Olivier Vernon is expected to make his season debut on Sunday for the Giants (Vernon’s 44 sacks since joining the league in 2012 ranks 23rd overall). The Giants are allowing 9.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th-most) after conceding the 5th-most yards last season, but the Panthers don’t have the personnel to exploit the weakness without Greg Olsen.

New York has a star in rookie RB Saquan Barkley but the Giants still like throwing the ball and have the 5th-highest pass rate at 67% of plays. That pass-heavy attack will look to expose Carolina’s 27th-ranked pass defense that’s conceded the 3rd-most chunk plays in the league. Eli Manning has thrown for just 5.6 yards per pass play (28th) this year, but this seems like a nice matchup for him to turn it around if he still has something left in the tank. Then again, Carolina could have used their bye week to fix their problems in the secondary and the Panthers do apply to a 79-24-4 ATS favorite off a bye week situation. Our model factors in bye weeks and makes the Panthers a 6.3-point favorite over the Giants. The line is only slightly higher than it should be and the situation is favorable for the Panthers to come out of their bye week with an improved performance. I’ll lean slightly with Carolina at -7 or less for those of you that are in a pool and looking for a pick.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Giants
  • Panthers
NYG
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.5 33.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 45.4% 44.2%
  • Sack Rate 9.0% 3.3%
  • Int Rate 0.7% 1.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.2% 18.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 23.9% 46.7%
  • NYPP 5.8 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 21.0 27.8
  • RB YPR 3.9 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 27.4% 19.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.0% 46.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 52.1% 47.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 62.5 61.5
  • Early Down Succ 42.9% 51.1%
  • Succ Rate 43.0% 46.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 31.8% 49.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.1 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.5 27.8
  • Run Ratio 33.8% 45.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.5 30.5
  • Game Control -2.6 2.6
 
  • Points 18.3 23.8
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