Game Analysis
Lean – CAROLINA (-7/-6.5) over NY Giants
The Panthers have played without 3 starters on the offensive line for most of the season and rank 25th in pass blocking efficiency. However, their ground game is seemingly unaffected as they rank 3rd in rushing. Guard Trai Turner should return this week, but they will again be without both starting tackles, which could be a problem as DE Olivier Vernon is expected to make his season debut on Sunday for the Giants (Vernon’s 44 sacks since joining the league in 2012 ranks 23rd overall). The Giants are allowing 9.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th-most) after conceding the 5th-most yards last season, but the Panthers don’t have the personnel to exploit the weakness without Greg Olsen.
New York has a star in rookie RB Saquan Barkley but the Giants still like throwing the ball and have the 5th-highest pass rate at 67% of plays. That pass-heavy attack will look to expose Carolina’s 27th-ranked pass defense that’s conceded the 3rd-most chunk plays in the league. Eli Manning has thrown for just 5.6 yards per pass play (28th) this year, but this seems like a nice matchup for him to turn it around if he still has something left in the tank. Then again, Carolina could have used their bye week to fix their problems in the secondary and the Panthers do apply to a 79-24-4 ATS favorite off a bye week situation. Our model factors in bye weeks and makes the Panthers a 6.3-point favorite over the Giants. The line is only slightly higher than it should be and the situation is favorable for the Panthers to come out of their bye week with an improved performance. I’ll lean slightly with Carolina at -7 or less for those of you that are in a pool and looking for a pick.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.5
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.4%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.0%
3.3%
-
Int Rate
0.7%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.2%
18.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
23.9%
46.7%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.0
27.8
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
27.4%
19.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.0%
46.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.1%
47.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.5
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
42.9%
51.1%
-
Succ Rate
43.0%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.8%
49.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
27.8
-
Run Ratio
33.8%
45.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.5
30.5
-
Game Control
-2.6
2.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
36.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
52.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
0.7%
4.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.9%
19.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.3%
38.7%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.7
22.7
-
RB YPR
5.0
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
17.9%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.0%
43.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
57.5%
62.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.4
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
59.3
-
Early Down Succ
54.4%
51.3%
-
Succ Rate
49.6%
48.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
45.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.7
-
Run Ratio
49.3%
38.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
23.7
-
Game Control
2.1
-2.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
JAC |
15 – 20 L |
-3.9 |
28.2% / 44.1% |
5.1% / 2.9% |
2.7% / 3.0% |
5.4 / 4.9 |
34.8% / 36.7% |
30.4% / 16.7% |
5.0 / 4.6 |
62 / 64 |
31.9% / 46.8% |
30.6% / 40.6% |
38.0% / 38.8% |
5.2 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
37.1% / 46.9% |
25.3 / 31.5 |
2 |
@DAL |
13 – 20 L |
-10.5 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
12.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 6.4 |
47.1% / 59.3% |
35.3% / 14.8% |
2.1 / 5.2 |
67 / 52 |
33.3% / 56.8% |
38.8% / 48.1% |
18.4% / 48.3% |
3.8 / 5.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
25.4% / 51.9% |
27.9 / 27.6 |
3 |
@HOU |
27 – 22 W |
7.6 |
60.6% / 53.7% |
12.1% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
8.0 / 9.0 |
32.1% / 42.1% |
25.0% / 36.8% |
4.1 / 3.1 |
61 / 60 |
47.8% / 50.0% |
47.5% / 50.0% |
41.3% / 53.4% |
6.2 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
45.9% / 31.7% |
22.2 / 28.9 |
4 |
NO |
18 – 33 L |
-3.5 |
56.8% / 42.9% |
6.8% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 48.6% |
18.8% / 8.6% |
4.1 / 4.9 |
60 / 70 |
58.3% / 51.0% |
55.0% / 45.7% |
29.3% / 55.4% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
26.7% / 50.0% |
22.5 / 33.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
DAL |
16 – 8 W |
6.7 |
50.0% / 37.1% |
10.7% / 17.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 3.9 |
44.7% / 26.1% |
21.1% / 17.4% |
3.9 / 4.1 |
66 / 58 |
58.7% / 38.6% |
47.0% / 32.8% |
28.7% / 22.7% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
57.6% / 39.7% |
38.1 / 21.4 |
2 |
@ATL |
24 – 31 L |
-5.0 |
53.2% / 67.9% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 3.6% |
6.8 / 9.7 |
66.7% / 50.0% |
11.1% / 31.3% |
6.7 / 5.3 |
65 / 60 |
58.5% / 59.2% |
56.9% / 58.3% |
44.4% / 55.9% |
6.8 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.7% / 53.3% |
19.5 / 26.2 |
3 |
CIN |
31 – 21 W |
4.5 |
40.0% / 53.2% |
4.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 8.9% |
5.9 / 7.0 |
47.6% / 53.8% |
21.4% / 23.1% |
5.5 / 5.1 |
67 / 60 |
46.2% / 56.0% |
44.8% / 53.3% |
54.8% / 58.1% |
5.6 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
62.7% / 21.7% |
30.5 / 23.5 |