Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (42) – ATLANTA (-8.5) vs NY Giants

• This is nearly a win-or-go-home game for the Falcons with Atlanta’s playoff chance dropping to 7% with a loss compared to 33% with a win. Head coach Raheem Morris is making a change under center to rookie Michael Penix, who must be playing well in practice to get the nod over the veteran given the gravity of this game.
• Kirk Cousins never recovered from the from the tear in his right Achilles. Cousins had a league-low 4% of his dropbacks outside the pocket. The only quarterback to move less going back 9 seasons is Ben Roethlisberger in 2017.
• Penix will have a favorable matchup in his first start as Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is averaging 19% more yppp versus Cover 1 compared to other coverages (6th) and the Giants defense has the 4th-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Atlanta WR Drake London leads the NFL with 2.49 yards per route run in the slot and New York’s defense could be down to 3rd choice at nickelback Deonte Banks if Andru Phillips and Greg Stroman are sidelined. Banks has taken most of his snaps on the outside.
• The Giants are allowing a league-high 0.55 EPA/target to opposing tight ends and they will struggle versus TE Kyle Pitts, who is averaging 1.41 yards per route run (9th).
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson has a 53% receiving success rate (2nd) and Penix will feature the screen game as New York’s defense is surrendering 0.17 EPA/target to opposing running backs (28th).
• Robinson also has a favorable matchup on the ground as the Giants are allowing 4.9 yards per rush (31st). Atlanta’s offense has a 44% rush success rate (8th).
• New York is without interior defender Dexter Lawrence and could be missing edge rusher Brian Burns, who said his ankle got rolled up “pretty bad” last week. Lawrence ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency and Burns has 52 pressures (13th). The pair are worth 2.8 points by our numbers.
• The Giants are also making a change at quarterback with Drew Lock likely to start on Sunday. New York’s offensive line ranks 29th in pass-blocking efficiency and is missing two starters, but I do not expect Lock’s sack rate (7.5% ) to be as bad in this game against a Falcons’ defense that has only a 28% pressure rate (30th). Atlanta’s pass rush is a huge step down from Lock’s last two starts against New Orleans and Dallas.
• The Falcons are surrendering 0.12 EPA/dropback (25th) and I expect Lock to look deep versus Atlanta’s defense to Giants WR Malik Nabers 24 targets with 20+ air yards (5th).
• Our model favors the Falcons by 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.9 points, and the Over is the play.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42.5 points or less.