New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

1-Star Best Bet – *NY Giants (+6) over ATLANTA

Note: This line has moved out of Best Bet range since we released it to subscribers early in the week. My model favors Atlanta by just 2.9 points so I’d only lean slightly with the Giants at the current line of +4.5 or +4.

The advanced spread for this game was Falcons -3.5 and we’re getting value on the Giants now because the scoreboards last week didn’t necessarily provide a true reflection of what happened in the games these teams played. New York outgained Philadelphia by 0.7 yards per play but lost 34-13, while Atlanta was lucky to sneak out a victory against Tampa Bay while getting outgained by 1.6 yards per play. Now, the Giants will be on 11 days rest and the Falcons will be the worst opponent they’ve faced all season according to our ratings.

Grady Jarrett may return to Atlanta’s defensive line this week, but the market is still likely undervaluing the early-season injuries to free safety Keanu Neal, strong safety Ricardo Allen, and middle linebacker Deion Jones. New York tight end Evan Engram is expected to return this week and he should find plenty of space to operate between the numbers without those three Falcons starters. Foyesade Oluokun, Jones’ replacement, is surrendering 2.0 yards per cover snap, which ranks 84th out of 87 qualifying linebackers, and Eli Manning is targeting his running backs on 27% of passes (5th-most) –for good reason. Saquon Barkley is gaining 2.12 yards per route run (8th) and should have a productive day catching the ball out of the backfield with Oluokun in coverage.

Peyton Manning has not been able to take advantage of his talented receivers down the field because he hasn’t had sufficient time to throw with his offensive line rankin 29th in pass blocking efficiency. However, Manning should have time in this game when he wants to look deep in this game given Atlanta’s poor 4.0% sack rate (29th). Falcons’s DE Vic Beasley continues to regress from his All-Pro season in 2016, as he registered just 5 sacks a year ago and has gotten to the quarterback only once so far in 191 pass rushes this season.

After all that was made of Steve Sarkisian’s Redzone play-calling in 2017 and the season-opener, Matt Ryan is now 18/20 inside the 20 since week 2 and the Falcons offense may now be overrated due to Redzone performance. Atlanta is scoring a touchdown on 69.6% of their Redzone opportunities, which is higher than any team finished last season, and I certainly expect them to find the end zone less often moving forward considering their offense ranks 15th overall in our ratings and Redzone efficiency is correlated to overall offensive efficiency.

Matt Bryant hasn’t missed a field goal all year, which is also a form of positive scoring variance for the Falcons, but Bryant will miss this game after aggravating his hamstring on the long spread covering kick near the end of last week’s game. Our model favors Atlanta by just 2.9 points, which is enough value to make the Giants a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Giants
Falcons

NYG

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.5 32.2
Succ Pass Plays 48.4% 50.2%
Sack Rate 8.1% 3.4%
Int Rate 2.3% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 18.0%
Big Pass Yards 34.0% 47.9%
NYPP 7.4 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 19.5 29.0
RB YPR 4.5 3.5
Stuff Rate 28.5% 20.2%
Succ Rush Plays 40.3% 46.5%
Big Rush Yards 62.3% 40.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.2

Game

All Snaps 59.0 61.2
Early Down Succ 43.5% 49.9%
Succ Rate 44.3% 48.2%
Big Yards Rate 40.8% 46.9%
Yards Per Play 6.2 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.8 30.0
Run Ratio 33.6% 47.7%
Starting Field Pos 25.6 30.3
Game Control -5.1 5.1

Points 19.5 27.0

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.0 39.8
Succ Pass Plays 56.5% 56.7%
Sack Rate 7.0% 3.9%
Int Rate 1.0% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.4% 16.0%
Big Pass Yards 41.3% 28.6%
NYPP 8.1 7.9

Rush

Rush Plays 23.0 24.8
RB YPR 3.5 4.8
Stuff Rate 30.5% 16.0%
Succ Rush Plays 40.0% 55.9%
Big Rush Yards 46.2% 46.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 5.1

Game

All Snaps 62.0 64.7
Early Down Succ 48.4% 52.9%
Succ Rate 49.8% 55.0%
Big Yards Rate 42.6% 34.7%
Yards Per Play 6.4 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.0 29.3
Run Ratio 37.2% 39.3%
Starting Field Pos 26.7 28.2
Game Control 0.4 -0.4

Points 27.8 32.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	JAC	15 – 20 L	-3.9	28.2% / 44.1%	5.1% / 2.9%	2.7% / 3.0%	5.4 / 4.9	34.8% / 36.7%	30.4% / 16.7%	5.0 / 4.6	62 / 64	31.9% / 46.8%	30.6% / 40.6%	38.0% / 38.8%	5.2 / 4.8	1.6% / 0.0%	37.1% / 46.9%	25.3 / 31.5
2	@DAL	13 – 20 L	-10.5	36.0% / 36.0%	12.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 6.4	47.1% / 59.3%	35.3% / 14.8%	2.1 / 5.2	67 / 52	33.3% / 56.8%	38.8% / 48.1%	18.4% / 48.3%	3.8 / 5.8	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 51.9%	27.9 / 27.6
3	@HOU	27 – 22 W	7.6	60.6% / 53.7%	12.1% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	8.0 / 9.0	32.1% / 42.1%	25.0% / 36.8%	4.1 / 3.1	61 / 60	47.8% / 50.0%	47.5% / 50.0%	41.3% / 53.4%	6.2 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.7%	45.9% / 31.7%	22.2 / 28.9
4	NO	18 – 33 L	-3.5	56.8% / 42.9%	6.8% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.3	50.0% / 48.6%	18.8% / 8.6%	4.1 / 4.9	60 / 70	58.3% / 51.0%	55.0% / 45.7%	29.3% / 55.4%	5.0 / 5.6	3.3% / 0.0%	26.7% / 50.0%	22.5 / 33.9
5	@CAR	31 – 33 L	-5.4	75.0% / 76.2%	4.2% / 4.8%	8.7% / 10.0%	15.9 / 11.0	25.0% / 40.6%	43.8% / 28.1%	3.1 / 3.7	40 / 53	46.7% / 47.1%	55.0% / 54.7%	59.3% / 52.7%	10.8 / 6.6	2.5% / 0.0%	40.0% / 60.4%	30.5 / 28.5
6	PHI	13 – 34 L	-14.8	34.0% / 48.6%	8.5% / 2.7%	2.3% / 0.0%	5.4 / 7.3	52.9% / 51.6%	17.6% / 16.1%	8.6 / 3.5	64 / 68	42.9% / 48.1%	39.1% / 50.0%	58.4% / 32.7%	6.3 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	26.6% / 45.6%	25.5 / 31.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	12 – 18 L	0.9	31.9% / 32.4%	8.5% / 5.4%	2.3% / 2.9%	4.8 / 3.2	44.4% / 53.6%	27.8% / 21.4%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	38.8% / 40.4%	35.4% / 41.5%	49.5% / 20.6%	4.6 / 3.6	0.0% / 1.5%	27.7% / 43.1%	35.2 / 22.2
2	CAR	31 – 24 W	5.0	67.9% / 53.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	3.6% / 2.2%	9.7 / 6.8	50.0% / 66.7%	31.3% / 11.1%	5.3 / 6.7	60 / 65	59.2% / 58.5%	58.3% / 56.9%	55.9% / 44.4%	7.4 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	53.3% / 27.7%	26.2 / 19.5
3	NO	37 – 43 L	-0.3	63.2% / 56.0%	7.9% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 7.8	21.7% / 53.6%	43.5% / 14.3%	2.1 / 5.1	61 / 78	52.1% / 57.4%	47.5% / 55.1%	36.3% / 37.9%	6.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 35.9%	24.1 / 29.8
4	CIN	36 – 37 L	-0.5	61.9% / 52.3%	7.1% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	9.6 / 7.0	45.8% / 56.5%	12.5% / 8.7%	3.8 / 4.3	66 / 67	52.0% / 50.9%	56.1% / 53.7%	37.2% / 33.4%	7.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	36.4% / 34.3%	32.4 / 33.0
5	@PIT	17 – 41 L	-8.9	56.8% / 84.2%	16.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.3%	7.1 / 13.2	36.8% / 50.0%	31.6% / 15.6%	3.3 / 4.1	56 / 51	39.6% / 51.1%	50.0% / 62.7%	36.1% / 39.3%	5.8 / 7.5	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 62.7%	20.3 / 36.1
6	TB	34 – 29 W	6.3	57.1% / 61.9%	2.4% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%	8.2 / 9.3	40.9% / 55.0%	36.4% / 25.0%	3.2 / 6.2	64 / 62	49.0% / 59.3%	51.6% / 59.7%	40.9% / 32.8%	6.5 / 8.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 32.3%	21.9 / 28.6

New York Giants @

Atlanta Falcons

Mon, Oct 22

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis