Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – New Orleans (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY

· The Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South with a victory, but it will be tough versus this New Orleans defense. The Saints have a 32.1% man-coverage rate (5th-highest) and Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt against man is only 72% of his yards per attempt against zone coverage.

· New Orleans is conceding just a 30% pass success rate to running backs (3rd) and they will limit Rachaad White, who leads running backs with 0.40 EPA/target.

· Saints edge defender Carl Granderson has 53 pressures (20th) but he will be contained by LT Tristan Wirfs, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Mayfield should have clean pockets to go downfield for WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (8th) and will not have to line up across from nemesis CB Marshon Lattimore.

· Derek Carr averaged only 3.0 yppp against the Buccaneers in week 4 after he injured his shoulder the prior week and tried to return too quickly.

· Tampa Bay’s defense will likely be without starting edge rusher Shaquil Barrett and CB Carlton Davis. Buccaneers’ backup cornerback Zyon McCollum will struggle versus WR Chris Olave, who has a 57% success rate (15th).

· New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara is averaging 1.78 yards per route run (3rd) but he will be contained as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing -0.22 EPA/target to running backs (5th).

· The Saints have not had an outdoor game since week 5 but this will be nearly identical conditions to a dome. There will be virtually no wind on a sunny day in Tampa. The only prominent difference will be 0.9 points for grass instead of turf according to our metrics.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.0 points, and the Saints apply to a 72-28-2 ATS same-season revenge road underdog situation and a 119-54-6 ATS late-season angle.

New Orleans is a Strong Opinion at +2 or more.