Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tampa Bay Team Total Under (21.5 -115)

New Orleans (+3) at TAMPA BAY

· The total closed 43.5 in week 2 when Tampa Bay traveled to New Orleans and it should be much more than 3 points lower on Monday night.

· The 3-point difference is entirely accounted for by the switch from a dome to outdoors according to our metrics and the Buccaneers offense is trending down while the Saints defense is trending up.

· Tampa Bay is down four starters on the offensive line from 2021 losing center Ryan Jensen in training camp, guard Ali Marpet to retirement, guard Alex Cappa to free agency, and now most importantly right tackle Tristian Wirfs is out.

· Wirfs is likely the most valuable tackle in the NFL after leading the league in pass blocking efficiency in consecutive seasons. I believe Wirfs is worth 2 points at minimum.

· Tom Brady already didn’t trust his offensive line before losing Wirfs. Brady is averaging a career-low 2.28 average time to throw.

· New Orleans’ top cornerback Marshon Lattimore is out against, which could allow Bucs’ WR Mike Evans to perform better than he has the last few years against the Saints, who have held Evans to just 37.8 receiving yards per game since the start of 2020 when Brady arrived.

· Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has consistently shown he does not want to score points instead preferring to depend on his defense. Tampa Bay had a fourth-and-2 at the Cleveland 37-yard line last week and opted for a punt netting 17 yards.

· I’m not expecting fireworks from the Saints on offense either. Andy Dalton is always looking underneath for Alvin Kamara, who leads all running backs averaging 1.85 yards per route run. However, the Buccaneers are conceding just 4.2 yards per target to RBs (2nd).

· Brady is averaging 14.6 points per game with Tampa Bay and 5.4 yppp. Three of those five games were in a dome.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 38.7 points. The situation favors New Orleans, who apply to a 214-117-9 ATS situation, and the same defensive scheme that’s given Tom Brady trouble in recent years (even when the Bucs’ offense was good) is still being used.

The Tampa Bay Team Total Under 21.5 is a Strong Opinion down to 21.