Game Analysis
Lean – Under (50.5) – NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs Tampa Bay
Barring a garbage time Tevin Coleman touchdown versus Atlanta, the Buccaneers have played 7 consecutive one-possession games since losing to the Saints 30-10 in week 9. Jameis Winston is averaging 7.4 yards per pass play since returning from injury without two starters on the offensive line. Winston’s quarterback rating while under pressure ranks 2nd in the league, so he deserves some credit for performing well under duress.
The Saints lead the league with 7.6 yards per pass play and their rush offense ranks 2nd in my metrics. New Orleans’ balance allows them to exploit weak spots in any matchup and normally I would expect them to air-it-out against a Buccaneers defense allowing 7.3 yards per pass play (31st), but they may play things more conservatively having already clinched a playoff berth. My ratings favor the Saints by 8 points in this game and my numbers show they have a 91% chance of winning the NFC South. I’ll pass on the side on this game but I’ll lean with the under 50 points or higher based on a 690-498-16 (58%) under situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
36.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.1%
42.2%
-
Sack Rate
3.4%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.6%
41.4%
-
NYPP
7.6
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
25.8
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
18.1%
24.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.7%
46.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.9%
48.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
64.1
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.5%
47.5%
-
Succ Rate
48.4%
44.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.5%
45.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
28.0
-
Run Ratio
45.0%
41.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
25.9
-
Game Control
4.0
-4.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.2
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.7%
49.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
3.9%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.5%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.7%
38.7%
-
NYPP
6.8
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
28.7
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
23.5%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.1%
41.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.2%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
48.0%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
46.2%
46.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.3%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
28.5
-
Run Ratio
38.1%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
28.3
-
Game Control
-3.2
3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
19 – 29 L |
-6.6 |
60.5% /
63.6% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.3 |
28.6% /
27.3% |
14.3% /
33.3% |
2.9 /
4.0 |
59 /
66 |
52.1% /
44.7% |
49.2% /
45.5% |
29.9% /
68.0% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
50.0% |
22.4 /
24.9 |
| 2 |
NE |
20 – 36 L |
-14.2 |
51.1% /
61.0% |
2.2% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
10.6 |
47.1% /
51.6% |
11.8% /
22.6% |
4.8 /
3.8 |
62 /
72 |
54.2% /
58.3% |
50.0% /
56.9% |
48.3% /
53.2% |
6.9 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.4% /
43.1% |
27.9 /
27.5 |
| 3 |
@CAR |
34 – 13 W |
8.6 |
46.7% /
43.2% |
3.3% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
7.1 /
4.2 |
55.6% /
77.3% |
25.9% /
4.5% |
5.5 /
6.0 |
57 /
59 |
51.1% /
57.8% |
50.9% /
55.9% |
55.5% /
40.3% |
6.4 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.4% /
37.3% |
37.8 /
25.2 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
20 – 0 W |
5.5 |
48.8% /
37.5% |
2.4% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
6.4 /
4.0 |
46.4% /
60.0% |
14.3% /
40.0% |
3.1 /
3.9 |
69 /
47 |
46.3% /
52.6% |
47.8% /
44.7% |
46.1% /
31.7% |
5.0 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
31.9% |
28.8 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
DET |
52 – 38 W |
15.8 |
45.2% /
35.1% |
0.0% /
8.8% |
6.5% /
5.8% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
45.9% /
15.8% |
13.5% /
36.8% |
5.2 /
3.5 |
68 /
76 |
50.9% /
24.6% |
45.6% /
30.3% |
51.7% /
53.3% |
5.6 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
2.6% |
54.4% /
25.0% |
29.4 /
27.6 |
| 7 |
@GB |
26 – 17 W |
-2.5 |
59.0% /
23.1% |
2.6% /
3.8% |
5.3% /
4.0% |
8.3 /
3.0 |
53.8% /
70.8% |
12.8% /
16.7% |
4.2 /
7.5 |
78 /
50 |
61.4% /
48.7% |
56.4% /
46.0% |
49.2% /
45.4% |
6.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
48.0% |
30.1 /
18.2 |
| 8 |
CHI |
20 – 12 W |
7.8 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
6.7% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
9.5 /
4.4 |
36.4% /
45.2% |
18.2% /
32.3% |
3.2 /
5.1 |
63 /
65 |
52.1% /
36.2% |
42.9% /
38.5% |
57.9% /
61.2% |
6.2 /
4.7 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
52.4% /
47.7% |
30.8 /
24.8 |
| 9 |
TB |
30 – 10 W |
15.2 |
67.9% /
37.5% |
3.6% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
3.5 |
41.7% /
44.0% |
8.3% /
24.0% |
4.3 /
3.5 |
64 /
57 |
57.8% /
43.2% |
53.1% /
40.4% |
49.3% /
13.0% |
6.4 /
3.5 |
3.1% /
1.8% |
56.3% /
43.9% |
26.6 /
31.5 |
| 10 |
@BUF |
47 – 10 W |
17.6 |
44.0% /
40.0% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
7.4 /
4.3 |
62.7% /
40.0% |
11.8% /
46.7% |
5.9 /
4.6 |
76 /
45 |
62.5% /
48.5% |
56.6% /
40.0% |
56.4% /
35.4% |
6.4 /
4.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
67.1% /
33.3% |
39.7 /
21.9 |
| 11 |
WAS |
34 – 31 W |
-5.7 |
57.1% /
47.1% |
4.8% /
5.9% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.8 |
60.9% /
51.5% |
17.4% /
12.1% |
7.0 /
4.7 |
65 /
67 |
62.3% /
50.9% |
58.5% /
49.3% |
54.2% /
47.8% |
8.2 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.4% /
49.3% |
24.3 /
23.4 |
| 12 |
@LA |
20 – 26 L |
-7.2 |
45.7% /
45.8% |
8.6% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
6.4 /
6.8 |
47.1% /
32.1% |
11.8% /
21.4% |
7.2 /
3.3 |
52 /
76 |
52.6% /
49.1% |
46.2% /
40.8% |
51.2% /
61.0% |
6.7 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
36.8% |
21.2 /
26.2 |
| 13 |
CAR |
31 – 21 W |
8.7 |
41.7% /
40.0% |
5.6% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.6 |
31.3% /
52.2% |
28.1% /
17.4% |
4.7 /
4.9 |
68 /
53 |
39.1% /
51.2% |
36.8% /
45.3% |
57.6% /
38.4% |
5.9 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
47.1% /
43.4% |
32.1 /
27.8 |
| 14 |
@ATL |
17 – 20 L |
1.9 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
3.6% |
2.9% /
11.1% |
6.9 /
7.5 |
46.7% /
56.4% |
33.3% /
23.1% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
52 /
67 |
53.7% /
56.9% |
50.0% /
53.7% |
53.6% /
40.9% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
58.2% |
26.6 /
24.0 |
| 15 |
NYJ |
31 – 19 W |
6.4 |
50.0% /
30.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
2.8% /
5.1% |
7.9 /
4.3 |
41.4% /
46.4% |
20.7% /
14.3% |
4.6 /
4.4 |
65 /
68 |
48.1% /
38.5% |
46.2% /
36.8% |
53.0% /
44.9% |
6.4 /
4.3 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
41.2% |
31.3 /
25.9 |
| 16 |
ATL |
23 – 13 W |
8.2 |
48.3% /
46.3% |
3.4% /
12.2% |
3.6% /
2.8% |
7.9 /
6.4 |
25.7% /
33.3% |
28.6% /
28.6% |
2.5 /
3.2 |
64 /
62 |
43.2% /
51.1% |
35.9% /
41.9% |
58.5% /
50.0% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.7% /
33.9% |
29.3 /
33.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
CHI |
29 – 7 W |
18.1 |
48.5% /
56.5% |
6.1% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
5.9 /
6.3 |
36.1% /
25.0% |
11.1% /
43.8% |
3.3 /
1.3 |
69 /
62 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
42.0% /
48.4% |
14.4% /
6.5% |
4.5 /
5.0 |
1.4% /
3.2% |
52.2% /
25.8% |
31.1 /
27.0 |
| 3 |
@MIN |
17 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
57.1% /
63.6% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
11.2 |
44.4% /
37.5% |
11.1% /
12.5% |
2.9 /
3.2 |
51 /
73 |
60.0% /
52.7% |
54.9% /
49.3% |
16.7% /
45.3% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
17.6% /
54.8% |
24.8 /
27.3 |
| 4 |
NYG |
25 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% /
49.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
5.9 |
42.3% /
35.7% |
19.2% /
28.6% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
65 /
77 |
56.3% /
44.1% |
46.2% /
44.2% |
57.3% /
27.4% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
36.4% |
29.9 /
27.7 |
| 5 |
NE |
14 – 19 L |
-4.4 |
48.9% /
51.2% |
4.3% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
55.0% /
47.8% |
20.0% /
17.4% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
67 /
66 |
55.6% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
50.0% |
37.2% /
24.6% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
29.9% /
34.8% |
27.4 /
27.7 |
| 6 |
@ARI |
33 – 38 L |
-18.1 |
53.5% /
62.5% |
2.3% /
8.3% |
4.8% /
4.5% |
8.0 /
11.3 |
23.8% /
38.5% |
38.1% /
20.5% |
3.2 /
4.2 |
64 /
63 |
40.4% /
56.5% |
43.8% /
47.6% |
51.9% /
53.0% |
6.5 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.8% /
61.9% |
28.3 /
33.4 |
| 7 |
@BUF |
27 – 30 L |
-2.0 |
64.4% /
44.1% |
2.2% /
2.9% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
7.7 |
32.0% /
42.4% |
20.0% /
27.3% |
2.8 /
5.2 |
70 /
67 |
52.5% /
37.3% |
52.9% /
43.3% |
26.4% /
65.0% |
6.4 /
6.5 |
2.9% /
1.5% |
35.7% /
49.3% |
27.0 /
33.7 |
| 8 |
CAR |
3 – 17 L |
-7.2 |
36.6% /
37.5% |
7.3% /
0.0% |
5.3% /
3.1% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
45.5% /
45.5% |
31.8% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
63 /
65 |
46.0% /
43.2% |
39.7% /
41.5% |
19.4% /
30.5% |
4.4 /
3.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
50.8% |
23.2 /
30.6 |
| 9 |
@NO |
10 – 30 L |
-15.2 |
37.5% /
67.9% |
12.5% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
9.1 |
44.0% /
41.7% |
24.0% /
8.3% |
3.5 /
4.3 |
57 /
64 |
43.2% /
57.8% |
40.4% /
53.1% |
13.0% /
49.3% |
3.5 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
3.1% |
43.9% /
56.3% |
31.5 /
26.6 |
| 10 |
NYJ |
15 – 10 W |
3.4 |
40.0% /
28.9% |
2.9% /
13.3% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
5.2 /
4.9 |
28.1% /
21.1% |
28.1% /
42.1% |
2.8 /
2.9 |
67 /
64 |
32.7% /
27.7% |
34.3% /
26.6% |
23.2% /
46.2% |
4.1 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
47.8% /
29.7% |
36.0 /
19.0 |
| 11 |
@MIA |
30 – 20 W |
5.1 |
39.5% /
46.3% |
2.6% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
7.1 /
8.9 |
20.8% /
15.8% |
41.7% /
57.9% |
2.2 /
4.4 |
62 /
60 |
34.7% /
34.8% |
32.3% /
36.7% |
42.4% /
61.2% |
5.2 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
38.7% /
31.7% |
35.9 /
25.2 |
| 12 |
@ATL |
20 – 34 L |
-8.2 |
51.1% /
60.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
10.5 |
56.5% /
60.7% |
17.4% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
5.3 |
68 /
63 |
56.4% /
55.1% |
52.9% /
60.3% |
18.8% /
61.4% |
5.5 /
8.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
33.8% /
44.4% |
25.0 /
26.3 |
| 13 |
@GB |
20 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
43.6% /
33.3% |
17.9% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
5.9 /
3.2 |
48.6% /
60.0% |
17.1% /
13.3% |
4.7 /
6.7 |
74 /
54 |
43.1% /
52.5% |
45.9% /
48.1% |
34.7% /
40.1% |
5.3 /
5.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
55.6% |
25.3 /
28.5 |
| 14 |
DET |
21 – 24 L |
-4.8 |
58.5% /
61.4% |
7.3% /
0.0% |
5.3% /
4.5% |
6.5 /
8.7 |
62.1% /
33.3% |
13.8% /
38.9% |
4.6 /
2.9 |
70 /
62 |
63.3% /
54.9% |
60.0% /
53.2% |
25.4% /
34.8% |
5.7 /
7.0 |
4.3% /
1.6% |
41.4% /
29.0% |
22.2 /
30.4 |
| 15 |
ATL |
21 – 24 L |
-5.0 |
60.0% /
43.8% |
5.7% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
6.5 |
66.7% /
57.1% |
22.2% /
17.1% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
53 /
67 |
64.4% /
48.1% |
62.3% /
50.7% |
29.0% /
48.8% |
7.0 /
6.1 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
34.0% /
52.2% |
26.5 /
24.0 |
| 16 |
@CAR |
19 – 22 L |
0.3 |
42.4% /
42.9% |
18.2% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
9.9 /
5.0 |
25.0% /
54.5% |
37.5% /
12.1% |
2.8 /
3.5 |
57 /
61 |
30.4% /
56.8% |
35.1% /
49.2% |
60.5% /
31.6% |
6.9 /
4.2 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
54.1% |
26.8 /
36.7 |
New Orleans Saints
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers