Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **NO Saints Team Total Over (16.5 -120) to -130 odds

Alternate plays are 1-Star on New Orleans (+7) and 1-Star on game Over 41.5

New Orleans (+7) over SEATTLE

• Seattle’s secondary is in real trouble on Sunday without S Julian Love and CB Devon Witherspoon. Those two are worth 1.6 points according to our metrics.
• Seahawks backup cornerback Derion Kendrick allowed 0.21 more yards per cover snap than Pro Bowl CB Devon Witherspoon last season.
• Julian Love graded as Seattle’s best player in the secondary by PFF last year, and his backup Nick Emmanwori is also out, forcing in third-string S Ty Okada.
• The Seahawks are surrendering 0.44 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (28th) and Spencer Rattler will have a favorable matchup with TE Juwan Johnson, who is averaging 0.30 EPA/target (9th).
• Seattle interior defenders Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed rank 7th and 9th, respectively in pass rushing efficiency, but they will be limited as the New Orleans interior offensive line is responsible for a league-low 21% of the pressure allowed.
• The Saints are operating at an incredibly fast pace under Kellen Moore, 1.8 seconds per play faster than the 2nd fastest team.
• The Seahawks have a 48% Rushing Play Percentage (8th-highest), but I could see Sam Darnold dropping back more in this game as the New Orleans defense ranks 13th in rush success rate allowed but 26th in dropback success rate allowed.
• Our model makes Seattle a 7.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.6. New Orleans applies to a 53-5-1 ATS situation, which is why we like the Saints.

The Saints Team Total is a 2-Star Best Bet Over 16.5 to -130 odds.

The alternate plays, if you don’t have Team Totals, are 1-Star on New Orleans +7 and 1-Star on the game Over 41.5.