New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: New Orleans is now a 1-Star Best Bet with the line at -4.5.

3-Star Best Bet – ***New Orleans (-3.5) over SEATTLE

The Seahawks scored 20 points and rushed for 129 yards in the second half last Sunday night, which is all Pete Carroll needs to rationalize the attempt to establish the run consistently on a Saints rush defense ranked 2^nd in the league. I expect the New Orleans defense to shut down the ground game and eventually Carroll will have to turn to Geno Smith. However, the Saints should build a significant lead before that happens, as Seattle’s offense called 9 runs and just one pass coming out of the locker room down two touchdowns last week. The Seahawks clearly don’t trust Smith as he averaged only 4.1 air yards per attempt against the Steelers and Seattle’s offense will likely be held under 20 points.

Sean Payton has had an extra week to prepare for a below average defense and his offense will score in the mid-20s with Jameis Winston featuring Alvin Kamara on screens. The Seahawks are surrendering 8 yards per target to opposing running backs and New Orleans targets RBs on a league-leading 30.5% of passes.

Our model favors the Saints by 7.6 points (with a predicted total of 40.4 points), the matchups are favorable, and New Orleans applies to a 108-49-2 ATS favorite off a bye situation. New Orleans is a 3-Star Best Bet at -3.5, 2-Stars at -4, and 1-Star up to -5 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Seahawks

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 27.67 40.00
Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 42.9%
Sack Rate 6.6% 6.2%
Int Rate 2.7% 3.3%
Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 24.9%
Big Pass Yards 33.6% 41.3%
NYPP 6.57 6.26

Rush

Rush Plays 31.17 24.33
RB YPR 3.13 2.84
Stuff Rate 20.2% 23.0%
Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 36.1%
Big Rush Yards 28.9% 30.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.77 3.30

Game

All Snaps 58.83 64.33
Early Down Succ 48.3% 43.4%
Succ Rate 45.7% 40.5%
Big Yards Rate 32.3% 38.8%
Yards Per Play 5.18 5.15
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.86 29.15
Run Ratio 52.2% 37.7%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 2.89 -2.89

Points 23.33 16.83

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	38 – 3 W	15.26	61.9% / 35.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 5.7%	7.19 / 5.03	53.8% / 20.0%	23.1% / 13.3%	4.38 / 2.87	60 / 52	56.3% / 35.1%	56.7% / 30.8%	36.0% / 25.8%	5.37 / 4.40	0.0% / 1.9%	65.0% / 28.8%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@CAR	7 – 26 L	-11.48	19.2% / 57.5%	15.4% / 5.0%	9.1% / 2.6%	3.08 / 7.35	35.3% / 33.3%	29.4% / 39.4%	2.82 / 2.70	43 / 73	32.1% / 44.8%	25.6% / 46.6%	39.0% / 25.1%	2.98 / 5.25	0.0% / 0.0%	39.5% / 45.2%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@NE	28 – 13 W	10.20	50.0% / 35.8%	12.5% / 3.8%	0.0% / 3.9%	4.58 / 4.74	50.0% / 41.2%	18.4% / 23.5%	3.74 / 2.88	62 / 70	53.2% / 37.0%	50.0% / 37.1%	9.3% / 28.8%	4.06 / 4.29	0.0% / 0.0%	61.3% / 24.3%	0.00 / 0.00
4	NYG	21 – 27 L	1.41	57.7% / 57.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.8% / 2.5%	9.04 / 10.05	61.5% / 35.0%	2.6% / 15.0%	4.36 / 4.15	65 / 60	60.8% / 53.1%	60.0% / 50.0%	22.0% / 54.0%	6.23 / 8.08	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 33.3%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@WAS	33 – 22 W	3.77	40.6% / 41.9%	6.3% / 4.7%	3.3% / 4.9%	8.47 / 5.63	30.4% / 51.5%	21.7% / 18.2%	4.26 / 3.97	55 / 76	36.6% / 51.8%	36.4% / 46.1%	60.7% / 40.9%	6.71 / 4.91	1.8% / 0.0%	41.8% / 43.4%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@SEA	13 – 10 W	-1.81	48.6% / 29.6%	5.4% / 18.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.68 / 4.78	41.9% / 35.7%	25.8% / 28.6%	3.03 / 3.21	68 / 55	50.9% / 38.5%	45.6% / 32.7%	26.6% / 58.4%	4.47 / 3.98	1.5% / 0.0%	45.6% / 50.9%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@IND	28 – 16 W	7.55	57.7% / 48.8%	11.5% / 7.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.27 / 5.44	66.7% / 60.0%	14.8% / 13.3%	5.19 / 3.77	53 / 71	69.0% / 60.0%	62.3% / 53.5%	51.0% / 9.9%	7.19 / 4.73	1.9% / 1.4%	50.9% / 42.3%	0.00 / 0.00
2	TEN	30 – 33 L	5.49	41.2% / 53.5%	8.8% / 7.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.41 / 7.44	55.6% / 52.5%	22.2% / 22.5%	4.28 / 5.30	52 / 83	51.3% / 57.6%	46.2% / 53.0%	58.6% / 31.3%	7.63 / 6.41	0.0% / 1.2%	34.6% / 48.2%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@MIN	17 – 30 L	-2.14	55.9% / 69.2%	5.9% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.32 / 8.03	55.6% / 47.1%	11.1% / 23.5%	5.89 / 4.12	52 / 73	63.4% / 57.6%	55.8% / 58.9%	39.6% / 36.1%	7.48 / 6.21	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 46.6%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@SF	28 – 21 W	3.26	30.8% / 45.2%	11.5% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	4.96 / 5.67	46.4% / 62.1%	28.6% / 10.3%	3.75 / 4.93	54 / 71	43.2% / 61.5%	38.9% / 52.1%	38.6% / 19.3%	4.33 / 5.37	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 40.8%	0.00 / 0.00
5	LA	17 – 26 L	-1.13	51.4% / 55.3%	5.7% / 2.6%	6.1% / 2.7%	7.49 / 9.42	56.0% / 44.8%	12.0% / 37.9%	3.68 / 4.07	60 / 67	58.3% / 56.4%	53.3% / 50.7%	44.8% / 57.8%	5.90 / 7.10	0.0% / 0.0%	41.7% / 43.3%	0.00 / 0.00
6	@PIT	20 – 23 L	-3.85	45.9% / 43.9%	13.5% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.46 / 5.51	63.0% / 53.3%	25.9% / 23.3%	5.33 / 3.97	64 / 71	62.0% / 51.8%	53.1% / 47.9%	48.4% / 22.7%	4.83 / 4.86	1.6% / 1.4%	42.2% / 42.3%	0.00 / 0.00
7	NO	10 – 13 L	1.81	29.6% / 48.6%	18.5% / 5.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.78 / 5.68	35.7% / 41.9%	28.6% / 25.8%	3.21 / 3.03	55 / 68	38.5% / 50.9%	32.7% / 45.6%	58.4% / 26.6%	3.98 / 4.47	0.0% / 1.5%	50.9% / 45.6%	0.00 / 0.00

New Orleans Saints @

Seattle Seahawks

Mon, Oct 25

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis