New Orleans Saints @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Sep 22
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 481
Odds: Seattle Seahawks -4.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – SEATTLE (-4.5) vs New Orleans

Drew Brees was injured early in last week’s game and veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater did not look good under center – averaging just 4.7 yards per pass play. Bridgewater was also ineffective in his week 17 start for New Orleans last year when he gained just 4.6 yards per pass play. We are making a 5.5-point adjustment for the drop off from Brees to Bridgewater while the market has only moved 3 points from the look-ahead line.

The Seahawks allowed 7.2 yards per target to opposing running backs in 2018 (30th) so Bridgewater should be able to dump it off the Alvin Kamara and let his playmaker do the work. Shaquill Griffin is conceding just 0.40 yards per cover snap through two weeks (4th) and it will be a prove-it game for him as he squares off with elite Saints’ receiver Michael Thomas. The Saints have one of the best tackle tandems in the league and Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk should make it tough on Jadeveon Clowney to produce a pass rush.

Russell Wilson is patching the gap left by Doug Baldwin by utilizing his tight end Will Dissly and rookie receiver DK Metcalf. However, both guys have difficult matchups this week. Dissly is gaining 2.00 yards per route run (10th), but he in unlikely to continue that pace against a Saints defense coming off a season where they allowed only 6.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends (6th). Metcalf is gaining 2.42 yards per route run, but will face his first tough test versus Marshon Lattimore. Cam Jordan ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders and he should wreak havoc on the outside against the weakness of the Seattle’s offensive line, right tackle Germain Ifedi. The Seahawks have the 4th-highest adjusted run rate in the league and they face a struggling Saints rush defense looking to turn it around. New Orleans ranks 31st in rush defense so far, but ranked 5th last year with mainly the same personnel and coordinator so it could just be a small sample size issue.

We will learn a lot about this Saints team with Teddy Bridgewater getting a full week of preparation. New Orleans could be forced into a wild card or miss the playoffs entirely if Bridgewater continues to play poorly. Our model make Seattle a 7.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.3.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Seahawks
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.5 33.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.5% 40.4%
  • Sack Rate 3.8% 13.2%
  • Int Rate 2.6% 1.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 9.5% 17.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 26.4% 60.4%
  • NYPP 6.6 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 20.5 26.5
  • RB YPR 5.1 5.6
  • Stuff Rate 17.3% 25.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.2% 55.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.6% 56.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.9 5.8




Game

  • All Snaps 61.0 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 52.1% 47.2%
  • Succ Rate 49.5% 46.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.9% 59.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 6.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 30.3
  • Run Ratio 33.7% 44.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.1 23.4
  • Game Control -4.2 4.2
 
  • Points 19.5 27.5
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