Game Analysis

SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) vs New Orleans

· It was a reunion at New Orleans practice this week with CB Marshon Lattimore, CB Bradley Roby, DE Cam Jordan, DE Marcus Davenport, RB Mark Ingram, LT James Hurst, LG Andrus Peat and first round rookie tackle Trevor Penning all back on the field in some capacity.

· Saints’ backup cornerback Chris Harris surrendered 126 yards and a touchdown while missing two tackles last week. Meanwhile, CB Paulson Adebo ranks last in coverage grade by PFF. It would be huge for the New Orleans defense to get either Lattimore or Roby back in uniform.

· However, the Saints are unlikely to have linebacker Pete Werner, who ranks 13th in coverage grade by PFF. Jimmy Garoppolo leads the NFL gaining 8.3 yards per pass when it is 1-9 yards downfield and Werner being out will leave a gap for Garoppolo to attack.

· I expect Garoppolo to throw slants across the middle to Deebo Samuel, who is gaining 9.5 yards after the catch per reception. The next closest receiver to Samuel in the league is Jerry Jeudy, who averages 7.1 yards after the catch per reception.

· New Orleans has the 8th-rated rush defense according to our numbers and Kyle Shanahan will likely let Garoppolo throw to establish an early lead. Shanahan called nine-straight passes in the second quarter last week against the Cardinals and the 49ers scored 17 points in 13 minutes.

· The Saints have a 44% rush success rate (6th) and running back Alvin Kamara is gaining 1.86 yards per route run (2nd), but I don’t see Kamara finding much room versus San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers are conceding -0.107 EPA/rush (6th) and allow just 4.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (3rd).

· New Orleans’ WR Chris Olave has 61% success rate (10th) but Andy Dalton will likely have to look elsewhere when the rookie is lined up across from San Francisco’s best cornerback Charvarius Ward, who ranks 28th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 7.8 with a predicted total of 42.5.