Game Analysis

Lean – NY GIANTS (+4.5) over New Orleans

• The Giants defense only pressured Cooper Rush on 19% of his dropbacks last week and interior defender Dexter Lawrence suffered a dislocated elbow that will cost him the rest of the year.
• Lawrence has 9.0 sacks (9th) and is 2nd on New York’s defense with 23 run stops. Lawrence is worth about 2 points according to our numbers.
• The Giants are surrendering a league-high 5.1 yards per rush and they will struggle without Lawrence versus a Saints ground game averaging Saints 0.01 EPA/rush (6th).
• However, New Orleans will be without Taysom Hill, who leads the Saints with 7.1 yards per carry.
• Hill’s loss will also be felt in the passing game. The Saints are targeting tight ends on 27% of passing attempts (8th-most) but I expect Derek Carr to continue featuring Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau even with Hill out as New York’s defense is surrendering a 63% success rate to opposing TEs (31st).
• Giants edge defender Brian Burns has 42 pressures (18th) and he should have success getting at the quarterback while lined up across from from LT Taliese Fuaga, who has surrendered 5 sacks (8th-most).
• Carr will avoid the pressure from his blind side with the screen game. The Giants are surrendering 0.14 EPA/target to opposing running backs (25th) and RB Alvin Kamara is averaging 1.65 yards per route run (3rd).
• Drew Lock averaged only 3.5 yppp in his first starter as New York’s offense is without both starting tackles.
• Lock will look downfield for Giants WR Malik Nabers in a favorable matchup. Nabers has 18 targets with 20+ air yards (9th) and the rookie will go against New Orleans CB Alontae Taylor, who is surrendering a league-high 1.91 yards per cover snap.
• Our model favors the Saints by 6.8 points, with a predicted total of 41.4 points, but the Giants apply to a 51-6 ATS situation that plays on teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games to the spread.