New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY GIANTS (+3.5) over New Orleans

New York’s offense is gaining just 5.1 yards per play (23rd) and the Giants rely too much on the playmaking ability of rookie RB Saquon Barkley and WR Odell Beckham. Barkley is tied for first in the NFL with 6.3 avoided tackles per game and Beckham leads all wide receivers in forcing 2.7 missed tackles per game, but those marks are unsustainable regardless of their talent. Last season, Kareem Hunt led all players with 4.6 avoided tackles per game and no wide receiver averaged more than 1.5 per game. Furthermore, we can expect some regression on 3rd-down for New York’s offense. The Giants rank 28th in our early down efficiency metric, but they rank 4th on third down. Success on early downs is more predictive as the season progresses and I don’t expect New York to convert 44.2% on 3rd-down moving forward. So, as bad as the Giants offense has been, it’s likely to get worse unless they make some changes.

The Giants do catch a break with Saints nickelback Patrick Robinson out with an ankle injury. Robinson is really the only player in New Orleans’ secondary playing well this season, allowing 0.79 yards per cover snap, and he was an important part of Philadelphia’s defense during their Super Bowl run last year.

This will be the Saints first outdoor game of the season, but it’s worth noting that Drew Brees actually averages more points on grass away from home than he has on turf, contrary to conventional wisdom that he’s only good on the road in domes. Despite the Giants’ offensive woes, our model actually favors the Saints by just 1.6 points because the Saints’ defense has been even worse, ranking dead last at 7.2 yards per play allowed. That number is likely to get better and our model factors that improvement in, but the value is still a bit in the Giants favor and last week’s win should give them a boost of confidence. The Giants apply to a 54-14-4 ATS home dog off a road dog win situation while the Saints apply to a 60-130-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset road win against divisional rival Atlanta. I’ll lean with the Giants based on the good situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Giants

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 44.7 33.0
Succ Pass Plays 64.4% 58.6%
Sack Rate 4.0% 5.7%
Int Rate 0.0% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 16.1% 21.3%
Big Pass Yards 34.2% 52.0%
NYPP 7.6 10.5

Rush

Rush Plays 21.7 29.0
RB YPR 3.5 2.5
Stuff Rate 20.8% 25.7%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 32.8%
Big Rush Yards 33.9% 32.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 2.9

Game

All Snaps 66.3 62.0
Early Down Succ 65.1% 50.7%
Succ Rate 60.4% 47.2%
Big Yards Rate 35.1% 47.5%
Yards Per Play 6.5 6.8
Fumble Lost Rate 2.2% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 28.7
Run Ratio 32.2% 46.5%
Starting Field Pos 30.2 26.3
Game Control -3.3 3.3

Points 34.7 34.3

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TB	40 – 48 L	-7.4	73.9% / 64.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 14.9	69.2% / 43.2%	23.1% / 18.9%	3.3 / 3.1	59 / 65	77.6% / 56.5%	72.9% / 52.3%	36.4% / 62.7%	8.1 / 8.2	3.4% / 0.0%	22.0% / 56.9%	25.9 / 26.4
2	CLE	21 – 18 W	-2.8	63.2% / 48.5%	7.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 3.3%	5.6 / 7.1	37.5% / 33.3%	25.0% / 14.8%	2.6 / 3.4	62 / 60	60.4% / 43.5%	53.2% / 41.7%	30.8% / 43.4%	4.5 / 5.5	3.2% / 0.0%	38.7% / 45.0%	35.0 / 28.4
3	@ATL	43 – 37 W	0.3	56.0% / 63.2%	2.0% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 9.4	53.6% / 21.7%	14.3% / 43.5%	5.1 / 2.1	78 / 61	57.4% / 52.1%	55.1% / 47.5%	37.9% / 36.3%	6.9 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	35.9% / 37.7%	29.8 / 24.1

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	JAC	15 – 20 L	-3.9	28.2% / 44.1%	5.1% / 2.9%	2.7% / 3.0%	5.4 / 4.9	34.8% / 36.7%	30.4% / 16.7%	5.0 / 4.6	62 / 64	31.9% / 46.8%	30.6% / 40.6%	38.0% / 38.8%	5.2 / 4.8	1.6% / 0.0%	37.1% / 46.9%	25.3 / 31.5
2	@DAL	13 – 20 L	-10.5	36.0% / 36.0%	12.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 6.4	47.1% / 59.3%	35.3% / 14.8%	2.1 / 5.2	67 / 52	33.3% / 56.8%	38.8% / 48.1%	18.4% / 48.3%	3.8 / 5.8	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 51.9%	27.9 / 27.6
3	@HOU	27 – 22 W	7.6	60.6% / 53.7%	12.1% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	8.0 / 9.0	32.1% / 42.1%	25.0% / 36.8%	4.1 / 3.1	61 / 60	47.8% / 50.0%	47.5% / 50.0%	41.3% / 53.4%	6.2 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.7%	45.9% / 31.7%	22.2 / 28.9

New Orleans Saints @

New York Giants

Sun, Sep 30

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis