Game Analysis
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Opinion – New Orleans (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
Minnesota enjoyed 62 points of positive turnover variance last season, which was the highest in the NFL, and the Vikings still were just 8-8 and outscored their opponents by just 20 points (would have been -42 without the turnover luck). Minnesota is a below average team and last year’s luck may have the Vikes a bit overrated heading into this season. Week 1 teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS since 1999 and this game applies to a 53-17-1 ATS subset of that trend. I’ll lean with the Saints +3.5.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Saints
- Vikings
NOR
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 43.4 38.0
- Succ Pass Plays 54.8% 50.9%
- Sack Rate 3.9% 4.8%
- Int Rate 2.3% 1.5%
- Deep Pass Rate 16.3% 18.8%
- Big Pass Yards 41.0% 32.5%
- NYPP 7.4 7.2
Rush
- Rush Plays 26.0 25.6
- RB YPR 4.2 4.2
- Stuff Rate 16.0% 22.2%
- Succ Rush Plays 51.7% 44.4%
- Big Rush Yards 32.4% 39.9%
- Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.2
Game
- All Snaps 69.4 63.6
- Early Down Succ 55.0% 50.1%
- Succ Rate 53.1% 47.7%
- Big Yards Rate 39.8% 35.8%
- Yards Per Play 6.2 6.0
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.2%
- Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 27.5
- Run Ratio 36.8% 39.9%
- Starting Field Pos 27.0 29.2
- Game Control -1.3 1.3
- Points 29.3 28.4
MIN
Offense
Defense
Pass
- Pass Plays 39.1 36.6
- Succ Pass Plays 48.5% 45.5%
- Sack Rate 5.7% 6.8%
- Int Rate 0.8% 2.7%
- Deep Pass Rate 14.3% 18.8%
- Big Pass Yards 37.1% 36.6%
- NYPP 6.2 5.8
Rush
- Rush Plays 24.8 25.6
- RB YPR 3.1 3.9
- Stuff Rate 24.9% 20.0%
- Succ Rush Plays 41.4% 45.7%
- Big Rush Yards 30.1% 36.2%
- Yards Per Rush 3.2 4.1
Game
- All Snaps 63.9 62.2
- Early Down Succ 48.6% 48.2%
- Succ Rate 45.0% 45.5%
- Big Yards Rate 35.5% 37.6%
- Yards Per Play 4.9 5.1
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.4%
- Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.8
- Run Ratio 38.6% 41.3%
- Starting Field Pos 30.8 27.0
- Game Control -0.3 0.3
- Points 20.5 19.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
1 | OAK | 34 – 35 L | 4.0 | 58.5% / 48.6% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.2 / 8.6 |
54.5% / 57.7% |
18.2% / 23.1% |
4.0 / 6.4 |
63 / 63 |
60.8% / 55.8% |
57.1% / 52.4% |
58.4% / 56.4% |
8.0 / 7.7 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 41.3% |
19.7 / 28.6 |
2 | @NYG | 13 – 16 L | -2.0 | 43.5% / 60.5% |
4.3% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 8.2 |
38.5% / 33.3% |
15.4% / 25.0% |
3.2 / 1.9 |
59 / 79 |
47.8% / 53.6% |
42.4% / 48.1% |
15.3% / 32.8% |
4.9 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 3.8% |
22.0% / 45.6% |
29.6 / 21.5 |
3 | ATL | 32 – 45 L | -7.9 | 50.0% / 59.4% |
3.6% / 6.3% |
1.9% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 7.0 |
56.5% / 48.5% |
4.3% / 9.1% |
5.0 / 6.6 |
79 / 65 |
51.6% / 57.1% |
51.9% / 53.8% |
49.6% / 49.8% |
6.0 / 6.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
29.1% / 50.8% |
23.8 / 32.6 |
4 | @SD | 35 – 34 W | -2.3 | 50.0% / 43.5% |
5.3% / 6.5% |
5.6% / 2.3% |
5.0 / 6.7 |
36.8% / 33.3% |
10.5% / 38.1% |
2.3 / 1.8 |
76 / 67 |
42.0% / 39.6% |
43.4% / 40.3% |
19.0% / 38.7% |
3.7 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
50.0% / 31.3% |
36.9 / 31.4 |
6 | CAR | 41 – 38 W | 11.3 | 61.2% / 49.0% |
2.0% / 4.1% |
2.1% / 2.1% |
9.4 / 6.2 |
47.6% / 50.0% |
19.0% / 10.7% |
3.0 / 3.7 |
70 / 77 |
58.5% / 54.0% |
57.1% / 49.4% |
51.4% / 18.9% |
7.5 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
30.0% / 36.4% |
21.9 / 32.8 |
7 | @KC | 21 – 27 L | -7.9 | 63.3% / 54.2% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 8.9 |
72.7% / 30.0% |
9.1% / 16.7% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
71 / 54 |
66.7% / 46.3% |
66.2% / 40.7% |
25.9% / 44.8% |
6.5 / 6.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
31.0% / 55.6% |
22.6 / 22.7 |
8 | SEA | 25 – 20 W | -2.7 | 62.2% / 48.6% |
5.4% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.8 / 8.1 |
40.0% / 76.5% |
14.3% / 17.6% |
3.5 / 4.4 |
72 / 52 |
49.1% / 61.0% |
51.4% / 57.7% |
28.8% / 35.1% |
5.2 / 6.9 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
48.6% / 32.7% |
26.9 / 27.1 |
9 | @SF | 41 – 23 W | 10.2 | 55.0% / 52.5% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
8.1 / 9.8 |
52.3% / 47.1% |
13.6% / 23.5% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
84 / 57 |
54.0% / 58.7% |
53.6% / 50.9% |
45.4% / 56.0% |
6.8 / 8.5 |
0.0% / 5.3% |
52.4% / 29.8% |
28.5 / 29.0 |
10 | DEN | 23 – 25 L | -3.0 | 63.3% / 45.7% |
3.3% / 13.0% |
6.9% / 5.0% |
9.8 / 5.1 |
42.9% / 30.8% |
4.8% / 20.5% |
3.8 / 2.7 |
51 / 85 |
57.1% / 35.5% |
54.9% / 38.8% |
46.9% / 3.2% |
7.3 / 4.0 |
3.9% / 0.0% |
41.2% / 45.9% |
28.9 / 37.8 |
11 | @CAR | 20 – 23 L | -8.6 | 55.3% / 37.1% |
6.4% / 5.7% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 4.9 |
42.3% / 29.6% |
19.2% / 44.4% |
4.2 / 1.9 |
73 / 62 |
55.4% / 31.1% |
50.7% / 33.9% |
29.0% / 42.6% |
5.1 / 3.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
35.6% / 43.5% |
23.4 / 36.8 |
12 | LA | 49 – 21 W | 9.8 | 65.8% / 38.2% |
5.3% / 8.8% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
9.1 / 5.2 |
50.0% / 35.3% |
28.1% / 23.5% |
6.5 / 4.1 |
70 / 51 |
60.0% / 43.6% |
58.6% / 37.3% |
65.4% / 41.3% |
7.9 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 2.0% |
45.7% / 33.3% |
31.8 / 30.2 |
13 | DET | 13 – 28 L | -8.5 | 45.5% / 52.3% |
2.3% / 4.5% |
7.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 7.7 |
66.7% / 52.2% |
25.0% / 21.7% |
4.2 / 3.7 |
56 / 67 |
51.2% / 54.5% |
50.0% / 52.2% |
37.7% / 35.1% |
6.6 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
21.4% / 34.3% |
24.2 / 30.4 |
14 | @TB | 11 – 16 L | -5.2 | 42.9% / 50.0% |
2.4% / 7.1% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 5.9 |
50.0% / 43.2% |
31.3% / 27.0% |
2.9 / 2.9 |
58 / 65 |
48.8% / 50.0% |
44.8% / 46.2% |
29.6% / 9.6% |
5.1 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.6% / 56.9% |
21.1 / 29.8 |
15 | @ARI | 48 – 41 W | 2.4 | 52.9% / 58.5% |
5.9% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 7.5 |
55.9% / 73.3% |
14.7% / 13.3% |
3.9 / 7.7 |
85 / 56 |
54.5% / 64.4% |
54.1% / 62.5% |
38.2% / 36.2% |
5.8 / 7.6 |
1.2% / 3.6% |
40.0% / 26.8% |
35.7 / 25.4 |
16 | TB | 31 – 24 W | 6.0 | 61.1% / 54.1% |
5.6% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
8.2 / 7.0 |
67.6% / 52.4% |
11.8% / 23.8% |
3.7 / 4.2 |
70 / 58 |
75.5% / 52.2% |
64.3% / 53.4% |
36.4% / 33.2% |
6.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.6% / 36.2% |
29.9 / 25.9 |
17 | @ATL | 32 – 38 L | -15.8 | 47.1% / 62.2% |
3.9% / 2.7% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 8.7 |
52.2% / 17.4% |
17.4% / 17.4% |
5.7 / 6.2 |
74 / 60 |
47.3% / 44.7% |
48.6% / 45.0% |
59.8% / 38.4% |
6.4 / 7.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.1% / 38.3% |
27.9 / 25.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log | PASS | RUSH | GAMES | |||||||||||||||
Wk | Opp | Score | Game Control | Succ Pass Plays | Sack Rate | Int Rate | NYPP | Succ Rush Plays | Stuff Rate | Yds per Rush | All Snaps | Early Down Succ | Succ Rate | Big Yards Rate | Yds per Play | Fum Lost Rate | Run Ratio | Starting Field Pos |
1 | @TEN | 25 – 16 W | -0.0 | 42.4% / 58.1% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
7.2 / 5.9 |
31.0% / 50.0% |
27.6% / 31.8% |
2.3 / 2.9 |
62 / 65 |
37.0% / 54.9% |
37.1% / 55.4% |
24.8% / 24.4% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
46.8% / 33.8% |
35.1 / 26.4 |
2 | GB | 17 – 14 W | 1.0 | 37.1% / 39.0% |
11.4% / 12.2% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
7.3 / 4.4 |
28.0% / 39.1% |
48.0% / 21.7% |
1.2 / 3.6 |
60 / 64 |
36.6% / 38.0% |
33.3% / 39.1% |
44.6% / 39.9% |
4.8 / 4.1 |
1.7% / 3.1% |
41.7% / 35.9% |
32.5 / 20.8 |
3 | @CAR | 22 – 10 W | 0.7 | 43.3% / 34.1% |
6.7% / 18.2% |
0.0% / 8.3% |
5.1 / 4.6 |
30.8% / 46.4% |
34.6% / 7.1% |
2.3 / 3.8 |
56 / 72 |
45.0% / 41.5% |
37.5% / 38.9% |
6.6% / 41.5% |
3.8 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.4% / 38.9% |
29.9 / 24.0 |
4 | NYG | 24 – 10 W | 10.0 | 47.2% / 37.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
7.3 / 5.8 |
28.6% / 44.4% |
20.0% / 11.1% |
3.0 / 4.3 |
71 / 63 |
37.3% / 46.9% |
38.0% / 39.7% |
42.7% / 24.8% |
5.2 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
49.3% / 28.6% |
31.3 / 23.0 |
5 | HOU | 31 – 13 W | 17.1 | 56.3% / 30.4% |
6.3% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
8.0 / 3.4 |
33.3% / 50.0% |
23.1% / 28.6% |
2.5 / 4.2 |
71 / 60 |
44.4% / 43.5% |
43.7% / 35.0% |
37.7% / 33.6% |
5.0 / 3.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.9% / 23.3% |
28.6 / 28.3 |
7 | @PHI | 10 – 20 L | -7.6 | 31.9% / 42.9% |
12.8% / 0.0% |
2.4% / 7.1% |
4.0 / 4.9 |
46.4% / 33.3% |
25.0% / 22.2% |
3.4 / 3.8 |
75 / 55 |
35.3% / 39.0% |
37.3% / 38.2% |
36.4% / 26.7% |
3.8 / 4.4 |
4.0% / 3.6% |
37.3% / 49.1% |
37.7 / 29.2 |
8 | @CHI | 10 – 20 L | -10.2 | 45.2% / 53.1% |
11.9% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 7.7 |
38.9% / 41.4% |
5.6% / 31.0% |
3.2 / 5.4 |
60 / 61 |
48.9% / 46.8% |
43.3% / 47.5% |
38.0% / 53.1% |
4.3 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.0% / 47.5% |
23.3 / 21.7 |
9 | DET | 16 – 22 L | -2.7 | 57.1% / 47.2% |
4.8% / 2.8% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.2 / 5.9 |
64.0% / 32.0% |
24.0% / 40.0% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
67 / 61 |
64.7% / 38.3% |
59.7% / 41.0% |
25.8% / 45.0% |
5.0 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 41.0% |
34.1 / 21.5 |
10 | @WAS | 20 – 26 L | -3.4 | 60.5% / 58.8% |
7.0% / 2.9% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 7.6 |
42.9% / 51.7% |
42.9% / 6.9% |
2.2 / 4.4 |
64 / 63 |
57.7% / 59.2% |
54.7% / 55.6% |
45.6% / 28.3% |
5.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
32.8% / 46.0% |
28.5 / 28.2 |
11 | ARI | 30 – 24 W | 6.4 | 43.3% / 35.7% |
6.7% / 9.5% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
4.8 / 3.7 |
40.0% / 57.1% |
24.0% / 14.3% |
2.9 / 4.8 |
55 / 70 |
43.6% / 48.2% |
41.8% / 44.3% |
29.4% / 35.5% |
4.0 / 4.1 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 40.0% |
30.1 / 32.6 |
12 | @DET | 13 – 16 L | -1.0 | 43.2% / 45.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.4 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
12.5% / 4.8% |
5.1 / 4.5 |
53 / 61 |
52.4% / 50.0% |
45.3% / 44.3% |
35.6% / 45.3% |
5.8 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 34.4% |
25.2 / 27.3 |
13 | DAL | 15 – 17 L | -1.6 | 54.0% / 33.3% |
6.0% / 14.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 5.9 |
52.6% / 55.2% |
21.1% / 17.2% |
4.6 / 4.9 |
69 / 50 |
58.5% / 53.8% |
53.6% / 46.0% |
22.6% / 46.4% |
4.6 / 5.3 |
1.4% / 4.0% |
27.5% / 58.0% |
28.9 / 32.7 |
14 | @JAC | 25 – 16 W | 2.8 | 50.0% / 39.0% |
0.0% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 5.6 |
38.7% / 33.3% |
32.3% / 25.0% |
2.8 / 3.5 |
65 / 65 |
53.1% / 34.0% |
44.6% / 36.9% |
57.3% / 37.5% |
5.8 / 4.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 36.9% |
35.9 / 22.3 |
15 | IND | 6 – 34 L | -18.0 | 51.1% / 60.7% |
10.6% / 0.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 8.9 |
44.4% / 57.5% |
22.2% / 17.5% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
56 / 68 |
54.3% / 61.1% |
50.0% / 58.8% |
38.3% / 32.1% |
5.0 / 6.0 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
16.1% / 58.8% |
24.7 / 31.0 |
16 | @GB | 26 – 38 L | -12.9 | 48.1% / 53.5% |
7.4% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 7.2 |
60.0% / 40.0% |
20.0% / 26.7% |
4.7 / 2.7 |
74 / 58 |
53.6% / 51.1% |
51.4% / 50.0% |
42.6% / 52.9% |
6.0 / 6.0 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
27.0% / 25.9% |
29.1 / 36.4 |
17 | CHI | 38 – 10 W | 14.9 | 64.7% / 59.1% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
7.4 / 6.4 |
32.3% / 56.8% |
16.1% / 13.5% |
4.1 / 4.9 |
65 / 59 |
55.3% / 64.6% |
49.2% / 57.6% |
40.6% / 34.4% |
5.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 5.1% |
47.7% / 62.7% |
37.2 / 26.4 |