New Orleans Saints @

Minnesota Vikings

Mon, Sep 11
4:10 PM Pacific
Rotation: 479
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -3.5, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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Opinion – New Orleans (+3.5) over MINNESOTA

Minnesota enjoyed 62 points of positive turnover variance last season, which was the highest in the NFL, and the Vikings still were just 8-8 and outscored their opponents by just 20 points (would have been -42 without the turnover luck). Minnesota is a below average team and last year’s luck may have the Vikes a bit overrated heading into this season. Week 1 teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS since 1999 and this game applies to a 53-17-1 ATS subset of that trend. I’ll lean with the Saints +3.5.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Saints
  • Vikings
NOR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 43.4 38.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.8% 50.9%
  • Sack Rate 3.9% 4.8%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.3% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.0% 32.5%
  • NYPP 7.4 7.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.0 25.6
  • RB YPR 4.2 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 16.0% 22.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.7% 44.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.4% 39.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 69.4 63.6
  • Early Down Succ 55.0% 50.1%
  • Succ Rate 53.1% 47.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.8% 35.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.2 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 27.5
  • Run Ratio 36.8% 39.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.0 29.2
  • Game Control -1.3 1.3
 
  • Points 29.3 28.4
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